Almería vs Cultural Leonesa Prediction, Preview and Stats

Spain flag 2025/2026 La Liga 2, Spain
Estadio de los Juegos Mediterráneos Mon, 9 Mar - 7:30 PM
La Liga 2
Almería ALM
3 Winner 0
Cultural Leonesa Cultural Leonesa
Full Time Mon, 9 Mar 7:30 PM
Sergio Arribas - 7', 78'
Thalys - 86'
Goal
|

CONTEXT

The match has finished with Almería securing a decisive 3-0 victory over Cultural Leonesa. The home side entered the contest as clear favorites, holding a 61% pre-match win probability compared to a 22% chance of a draw and just 17% for the visitors. The final outcome perfectly aligned with these pre-match market expectations. Furthermore, Almería's dominant performance resulted in a significant positive deviation of 39%, underlining their status as the comprehensively stronger team. Almería controlled the overall tempo of the game, maintaining a steady 53% possession while limiting Cultural Leonesa to 47%. Although expected goals (xG) data is unavailable for this fixture to confirm statistical alignment, the home side's clinical edge was evident. After taking a 1-0 lead into halftime, they comfortably expanded their advantage in the second period. The team's efficiency shift was entirely in line with expectations, demonstrating an effective and well-executed tactical game plan by the hosts. Additionally, the match flowed smoothly without any major disciplinary disruptions, as no red cards were issued to either side. Ultimately, Almería capitalized on their advantages to deliver a flawless and expected home victory.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Almería showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
S. Ais Reig
S. Ais Reig
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 11.09
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.27
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.14
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.09
D. Cantón Vitoria
D. Cantón Vitoria
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 11.09
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.27
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.14
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.09
R. Esteve Valenzuela
R. Esteve Valenzuela
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 11.09
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.27
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.14
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.09
?. Rodríguez Recio
?. Rodríguez Recio
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 11.09
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.27
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.14
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.09
Almería J. Ferrer Sicilia
J. Ferrer Sicilia
VS
Cultural Leonesa R. De La Barrera Fernández
R. De La Barrera Fernández
1.87
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.14
2 i
Last 6 Opponents
Córdoba Rank: W
FC Andorra Rank: W
Cádiz Rank: W
Ceuta Rank: W
SD Eibar Rank: L
Deportivo La Coruña Rank: L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Málaga Rank: L
Deportivo La Coruña Rank: L
Ceuta Rank: L
Sporting Gijón Rank: L
FC Andorra Rank: D
Real Sociedad II Rank: D
3
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
3 - 1 - 0
0

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Almería
61.01%
Draw
21.96%
Away Cultural Leonesa
17.03%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks’ model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
59.77
35.53
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Almería
Cultural Leonesa
Power Score
59.77
35.53
League Position
2
21
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Almería — Opponent-weighted form score
Cultural Leonesa — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Almería Cultural Leonesa

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Almería

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Cultural Leonesa

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Almería ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Cultural Leonesa
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
21.89
19.89
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
19.89
21.89
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Almería +0.20 Efficiency Index
vs
Cultural Leonesa -0.20 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Almería
Cultural Leonesa
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Almería ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Cultural Leonesa
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Almería Cultural Leonesa
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Almería Cultural Leonesa
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Almería
Cultural Leonesa
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 1 match between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Almería ALM Home
1 matches
Cultural Leonesa Cultural Leonesa Away
Match Record
1
Wins
0
0
Draws
0
0
Losses
1
Goals
1
Goals Scored
0
0
Goals Conceded
1
+1
Goal Difference
-1
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-03-10T00:08:41+00:00

TEAM FORMATION

No team formation data available.

General Information

Date & Time
Mar 09, 2026, 07:30 PM
Competition
2025/2026 La Liga 2, Spain
Stadium
Estadio de los Juegos Mediterráneos
Capacity
17400
Pitch Surface
N/A
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Saúl Ais Reig
David Cantón Vitoria
Ricard Esteve Valenzuela
?. Rodríguez Recio

Statistics

Possession
ALM
53%
Cultural Leonesa
47%

Top Statistics

3 Goals 0
3 Big Chances Created 0
2 Shots 2
32 Dangerous attacks 47
53 Possession 47
1 Corners 2
13 Free kicks 9
1 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

13 Throwins 12
2 Assists 0
5 Goal Kicks 4
13 Dribble Attempts 9
46 Successful Dribbles Percentage 33
6 Successful Dribbles 3
5 Substitutions 5
1 Hit Woodwork 0
73 Ball Safe 64
1 Injuries 0
5 Goal Attempts 2

Attacking

100 Attacks 88
1 Big Chances Missed 0

Possession

431 Successful Passes 387
500 Passes 454
55 Long Passes 42
56 Successful Long Passes Percentage 33
86 Successful Passes Percentage 85
31 Successful Long Passes 14
7 Key Passes 3

Defensive

13 Tackles 14
13 Interceptions 9
2 Saves 1

Build-up

11 Total Crosses 16
3 Accurate Crosses 2

Discipline

8 Fouls 11
1 Offsides 3

Events

2ND-HALF
87'
Event
Homam Al-Amin → Luis Chacón
10th Substitution
Event
Thalys
Left foot shot / 3rd Goal
86'
Event
Thalys → Miguel de la Fuente
9th Substitution
80'
Event
Gui Guedes → Sergio Arribas
8th Substitution
80'
79'
Event
Bicho → Nemanja Radoja
5th Substitution
79'
Event
Manu Justo → Rubén Sobrino
7th Substitution
79'
Event
Diego Collado → Selu Diallo
6th Substitution
Event
Sergio Arribas
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
78'
Event
Nico Melamed → Dion Lopy
4th Substitution
77'
Event
Adrián Embarba → Jon Morcillo
2nd Substitution
65'
Event
Arnau Puigmal → Léo Baptistão
3rd Substitution
65'
65'
Event
Iván Calero → Víctor Moreno
1st Substitution
Event
Dion Lopy
Argument / 2nd Yellowcard
56'
56'
Event
Selu Diallo
Argument / 1st Yellowcard
56'
Event
Thiago Ojeda
Argument / 3rd Yellowcard
1ST-HALF
Event
Sergio Arribas
Left foot shot / 1st Goal
7'

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Almería exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

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