AGF vs Nordsjælland Prediction, Preview and Stats

Denmark flag 2025/2026 Superliga, Denmark
Vejlby Stadion Fri, 10 Apr - 5:00 PM
Superliga
AGF AGF
1 – 1
Nordsjælland FCN
Full Time Fri, 10 Apr 5:00 PM
Round 4 Championship Round
Frederik Tingager - 82'
Goal
|
Goal
Juho Lähteenmäki - 9'

CONTEXT

The match between AGF and Nordsjælland has finished with a full-time score of 1-1. This draw represented a significant deviation from pre-match expectations, which had pointed strongly toward an AGF victory. Nordsjælland were identified as the stronger team overall and secured a result that exceeded what most forecasts anticipated, earning a point despite entering as clear underdogs. AGF controlled possession at 61 percent to Nordsjælland’s 39 percent and fought back from a 0-1 half-time deficit. No red cards were issued to either side, and the efficiency shift stayed in line with expectations across both teams. Without available xG data, it remains unclear precisely how the scoring chances translated, yet the outcome ultimately failed to align with the pre-match projection favoring the home side. Both squads showed solid organization in the second half as AGF pushed for a winner that never arrived. The shared points reflected a competitive encounter where Nordsjælland’s resilience proved decisive in frustrating the hosts.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Nordsjælland showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
S. Bramsen
S. Bramsen
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 17.8
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.8
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.04
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.2
A. Bøgebjerg
A. Bøgebjerg
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 17.8
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.8
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.04
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.2
F. Svendsen
F. Svendsen
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 17.8
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.8
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.04
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.2
M. Redder
M. Redder
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 17.8
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.8
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.04
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.2
AGF J. Poulsen
J. Poulsen
VS
Nordsjælland J. Olsen
J. Olsen
2.07
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.79
2 i
Last 6 Opponents
Viborg FF Rank: W
Brøndby IF Rank: D
Sønderjyske Fodbold Rank: D
Vejle Boldklub Rank: W
Viborg FF Rank: W
Fredericia Rank: D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Brøndby IF Rank: W
Sønderjyske Fodbold Rank: W
FC Midtjylland Rank: W
Viborg FF Rank: L
Vejle Boldklub Rank: D
FC København Rank: W
17
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
17 - 12 - 27
27

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home AGF
50.8%
Draw
23.94%
Away Nordsjælland
25.26%

Movement

Changes since opening
AGF
+45.29%
Draw
-62.03%
Nordsjælland
+16.74%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
36.92
37.99
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
AGF
Nordsjælland
Power Score
36.92
37.99
League Position
1
6
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
AGF — Opponent-weighted form score
Nordsjælland — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) AGF Nordsjælland

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

AGF

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Nordsjælland

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

AGF ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Nordsjælland
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
46.15
23.46
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
23.46
46.15
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
AGF +2.26 Efficiency Index
vs
Nordsjælland -2.26 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
AGF
Nordsjælland
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

AGF ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Nordsjælland
Created Set-piece attacking threat
AGF Nordsjælland
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
AGF Nordsjælland
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
AGF
Nordsjælland
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
AGF
vs
Nordsjælland
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
AGF Nordsjælland
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
AGF 0.40
Nordsjælland 0.35
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
AGF Nordsjælland
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
AGF 0.04
Nordsjælland 0.02
AGF
Nordsjælland
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • AGF had peak pressure around 97'.
  • FCN started the game with stronger pressure.
AGF Pressure FCN Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: AGF reached the top pressure at 97' (95.93).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 56 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

AGF AGF Home
56 matches
Nordsjælland FCN Away
Match Record
17
Wins
27
12
Draws
12
27
Losses
17
Goals
71
Goals Scored
94
94
Goals Conceded
71
-23
Goal Difference
+23
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-11T00:02:08+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Pitch
J. Hansen
Denmark
1 J. Hansen
F. Beijmo
Sweden
2 F. Beijmo
H. Dalsgaard
Substitution
Denmark
3 H. Dalsgaard
E. Kahl
Sweden
19 E. Kahl
G. Links
South Africa
11 G. Links
M. Knudsen
Norway
4 M. Knudsen
K. Yakob
Substitution
Iraq
17 K. Yakob
F. Emmery Søgaard
Substitution
39 F. Emmery Søgaard
T. Kristensen
Substitution
Denmark
31 T. Kristensen
K. Malt Arnstad
Norway
10 K. Malt Arnstad
J. Serra
Substitution
Germany
13 J. Serra
A. Hansen
Denmark
13 A. Hansen
C. Yirenkyi
36 C. Yirenkyi
T. Salquist
Denmark
3 T. Salquist
P. Ankersen
Substitution
Denmark
2 P. Ankersen
R. Norheim
Norway
23 R. Norheim
M. Såby Heyde
Substitution
Denmark
47 M. Såby Heyde
J. Meltofte Janssen
18 J. Meltofte Janssen
J. Lähteenmäki
Substitution
Finland
25 J. Lähteenmäki
I. Adel
Substitution
Egypt
14 I. Adel
M. Lamine Sadio
Senegal
37 M. Lamine Sadio
A. Rasmussen
Substitution
Denmark
11 A. Rasmussen

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 10, 2026, 05:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Superliga, Denmark · Round 4 · Championship Round
Stadium
Vejlby Stadion
Capacity
11500
Attendance
10620
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Steffen Beck Bramsen
Andreas Bøgebjerg
Frederik Svendsen
Mikkel Redder

Statistics

Possession
AGF
60%
FCN
40%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 1
3 Big Chances Created 0
11 Shots 3
63 Dangerous attacks 23
61 Possession 39
5 Corners 1
16 Free kicks 10
0 Yellow Cards 6

Match Overview

26 Dribble Attempts 14
2 Goal Kicks 12
14 Successful Dribbles 6
1 Assists 1
54 Successful Dribbles Percentage 43
23 Throwins 18
2 Hit Woodwork 1
0 Injuries 1
20 Goal Attempts 6
5 Substitutions 5
74 Ball Safe 84

Attacking

2 Big Chances Missed 0
152 Attacks 72
0 Counter Attacks 2

Possession

478 Successful Passes 288
52 Long Passes 54
563 Passes 365
19 Key Passes 3
85 Successful Passes Percentage 79
27 Successful Long Passes 23
52 Successful Long Passes Percentage 43

Defensive

19 Tackles 20
1 Saves 7
12 Interceptions 15
58 Duels Won 42

Build-up

11 Accurate Crosses 0
27 Total Crosses 3

Discipline

10 Fouls 16
3 Offsides 0

Lineup

Referee : Mikkel Redder

Starting XI ▼

1
Jesper Hansen
Jesper Hansen Goalkeeper
2
Felix Beijmo
Felix Beijmo Defender
3
Henrik Dalsgaard
Henrik Dalsgaard Defender
5
Frederik Tingager
Frederik Tingager
Defender82'
19
Eric Kahl
Eric Kahl Defender
4
Magnus Knudsen
Magnus Knudsen Midfielder
11
Gift Links
Gift Links Midfielder
17
Kevin Yakob
Kevin Yakob Midfielder
8
Sebastian Jørgensen
Sebastian Jørgensen
Midfielder73'
39
Frederik Emmery
Frederik Emmery Midfielder
26
Jacob Andersen
Jacob Andersen
Defender82'
10
Kristian Arnstad
Kristian Arnstad Attacker
13
Janni Serra
Janni Serra Attacker
9
Patrick Mortensen
Patrick Mortensen
Attacker62'
31
Tobias Bech
Tobias Bech Attacker
57
James Bogere
James Bogere
Attacker82'
Referee : Mikkel Redder

Starting XI ▼

13
Andreas Hansen
Andreas Hansen Goalkeeper
2
Peter Ankersen
Peter Ankersen Defender
45
Noah Markmann
Noah Markmann
Defender62'
3
Tobias Salquist
Tobias Salquist Defender
36
Caleb Yirenkyi
Caleb Yirenkyi Defender
18
Justin Janssen
Justin Janssen Midfielder
23
Runar Norheim
Runar Norheim Midfielder
25
Juho Lähteenmäki
Juho Lähteenmäki Midfielder
6
Mark Brink
Mark Brink
Midfielder77'
47
Malte Heyde
Malte Heyde Midfielder
32
Victor Gustafsen
Victor Gustafsen
Defender77'
11
Alexander Lind
Alexander Lind Attacker
17
Levy Nene
Levy Nene
Attacker62'
14
Ibrahim Adel
Ibrahim Adel Attacker
10
Prince Amoako Junior
Prince Amoako Junior
Attacker46'
37
Mamadou Sadio
Mamadou Sadio Attacker

Events

2ND-HALF
90+1'
Event
Andreas Hansen
Time wasting / 6th Yellowcard
89'
Event
Prince Amoako Junior
Time wasting / 5th Yellowcard
Event
Frederik Tingager
Header / 2nd Goal
82'
Event
Jacob Andersen → Frederik Emmery
8th Substitution
82'
Event
James Bogere → Tobias Bech
9th Substitution
82'
Event
Frederik Tingager → Henrik Dalsgaard
10th Substitution
82'
77'
Event
Mark Brink → Juho Lähteenmäki
6th Substitution
77'
Event
Victor Gustafsen → Malte Heyde
7th Substitution
Event
Sebastian Jørgensen → Kevin Yakob
5th Substitution
73'
66'
Event
Justin Janssen
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
Event
Patrick Mortensen → Janni Serra
3rd Substitution
62'
62'
Event
Levy Nene → Alexander Lind
4th Substitution
62'
Event
Noah Markmann → Peter Ankersen
2nd Substitution
48'
Event
Alexander Lind
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
46'
Event
Prince Amoako Junior → Ibrahim Adel
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Janni Serra
Goal disallowed
40'
36'
Event
Caleb Yirenkyi
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
14'
Event
Mamadou Sadio
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
14'
Event
7th Yellowcard
9'
Event
Juho Lähteenmäki
Left foot shot / 1st Goal

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Nordsjælland exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

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