Aberdeen vs Kilmarnock Prediction, Preview and Stats

Scotland flag 2025/2026 Premiership, Scotland
Pittodrie Stadium Sat, 25 Apr - 2:00 PM
Premiership
Aberdeen ABE
Versus
Kilmarnock KIL
KICKOFF : Sat, 25 Apr - 2:00 PM
Round 34 2nd Phase

CONTEXT

Aberdeen welcome Kilmarnock to Pittodrie Stadium for a crucial 2nd Phase clash in the 2025/2026 Premiership season. The Dons sit comfortably in 8th place, four spots above their visitors in 11th, but power ratings tell a different story: Kilmarnock edge ahead with 19.66 to Aberdeen's 15.18, boasting a clear 4.5-point advantage that marks them as the stronger side overall. Form scores reinforce this, with Killie at a robust 18.5 against Aberdeen's middling 11.17, suggesting recent momentum favors the travelers. Home advantage at Pittodrie could level the playing field for Aberdeen, who thrive on familiar turf, yet Kilmarnock's superior metrics hint at their potential to disrupt. Detailed efficiency, transition, and set-piece data remain unavailable, leaving focus on broader strengths. This encounter promises tension, as Aberdeen defend their position while Kilmarnock chase upward mobility.

TL;DR

  • Structural: Kilmarnock possesses a 4.5-point power advantage over Aberdeen, rated stronger despite the hosts' 8th-place standing above 11th.
  • Form: Kilmarnock's form score of 18.5 significantly outpaces Aberdeen's 11.17.
  • Squad: Aberdeen hold 8th in the league, with Kilmarnock in 11th; no detailed squad metrics available.
  • Efficiency: Efficiency data unavailable for both teams.
  • Transition: Transition statistics not provided in available data.
  • Set pieces: Set-piece performance data unavailable due to lack of xG and low-confidence proxies.
  • xVariable: xG-related variables absent as add-on not enabled.
  • Market: Projection split: Aberdeen 45.3% (Δ+0%) | Draw 27.3% (Δ+0%) | Kilmarnock 27.3% (Δ+0%).
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25 vs Team A
Feb 1 vs Team B
Feb 8 vs Team C
Aberdeen S. Robinson
S. Robinson
VS
Kilmarnock N. McCann
N. McCann
1.04
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0.72
0.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Hibernian Rank: W
St. Mirren Rank: L
Rangers Rank: L
Falkirk Rank: D
Celtic Rank: L
Hearts Rank: L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Dundee Rank: D
Hibernian Rank: L
Livingston Rank: W
Hearts Rank: W
Falkirk Rank: L
Dundee United Rank: D
38
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
38 - 12 - 17
17
No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Aberdeen
45.33%
Draw
27.33%
Away Kilmarnock
27.33%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
15.18
19.66
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Aberdeen
Kilmarnock
Power Score
15.18
19.66
League Position
8
11
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Aberdeen — Opponent-weighted form score
Kilmarnock — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Aberdeen Kilmarnock

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 67 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Aberdeen ABE Home
67 matches
Kilmarnock KIL Away
Match Record
38
Wins
17
12
Draws
12
17
Losses
38
Goals
99
Goals Scored
63
63
Goals Conceded
99
+36
Goal Difference
-36
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-21T01:06:41+00:00

STARTING XI - EXPECTED

Match Formation 3-4-1-2
Match Formation 4-4-2
Pitch
D. Mitov
1 D. Mitov
J. Milne
22 J. Milne
L. Morrison
23 L. Morrison
G. Molloy
21 G. Molloy
A. Jensen
28 A. Jensen
A. Aremu
32 A. Aremu
S. Armstrong
16 S. Armstrong
E. Gyamfi
77 E. Gyamfi
L. Cameron
25 L. Cameron
T. Olusanya
20 T. Olusanya
K. Nisbet
15 K. Nisbet
K. Roos
13 K. Roos
M. Schjonning-Larsen
21 M. Schjonning-Larsen
R. Deas
6 R. Deas
G. Stanger
14 G. Stanger
J. Brandon
2 J. Brandon
G. Kiltie
11 G. Kiltie
A. Tshibola
36 A. Tshibola
T. Lowery
18 T. Lowery
F. Curtis
52 F. Curtis
J. Hugill
44 J. Hugill
B. Anderson
19 B. Anderson

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 25, 2026, 02:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Premiership, Scotland · Round 34 · 2nd Phase
Stadium
Pittodrie Stadium
Capacity
20866
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair

Expected Lineup

Starting XI ▼

1
Dimitar Mitov
Dimitar Mitov Goalkeeper
6.82
28
Alexander Jensen
Alexander Jensen Midfielder
6.69
77
Emmanuel Gyamfi
Emmanuel Gyamfi Midfielder
6.49
15
Kevin Nisbet
Kevin Nisbet Attacker
6.86
20
Toyosi Olusanya
Toyosi Olusanya Attacker
6.56
16
Stuart Armstrong
Stuart Armstrong Central Midfield
6.96
32
Afeez Aremu
Afeez Aremu Central Midfield
6.81
21
Gavin Molloy
Gavin Molloy Left Back
6.72
22
Jack Milne
Jack Milne Right Back
6.73
23
Liam Morrison
Liam Morrison Centre Back
6.54
25
Lyall Cameron
Lyall Cameron Attacking Midfield
6.58

Starting XI ▼

13
Kelle Roos
Kelle Roos Goalkeeper
7.02
11
Greg Kiltie
Greg Kiltie Midfielder
6.86
52
Findlay Curtis
Findlay Curtis Midfielder
6.68
19
Bruce Anderson
Bruce Anderson Attacker
6.61
44
Joe Hugill
Joe Hugill Attacker
6.92
2
Jamie Brandon
Jamie Brandon Right Back
6.69
21
Michael Schjönning-Larsen
Michael Schjönning-Larsen Left Back
6.6
6
Robbie Deas
Robbie Deas Left Back
6.73
14
George Stanger
George Stanger Right Back
6.58
18
Tom Lowery
Tom Lowery Central Midfield
6.47
36
Aaron Tshibola
Aaron Tshibola Central Midfield
6.64

CONCLUSION

Overall, the structural indicators point toward Kilmarnock holding the stronger pre-match profile. Power rankings give Kilmarnock a 4.5-point edge. External projection is Aberdeen 45.3%, draw 27.3%, and Kilmarnock 27.3%. That projection profile diverges from the structural signals, so execution is likely to decide the result. The balance of play should hinge on execution in transitions and set-piece phases.

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