Aalesund vs KFUM Prediction, Preview and Stats

Norway flag 2026 Eliteserien, Norway
Color Line Stadion Sun, 12 Apr - 3:00 PM
Eliteserien
Aalesund Aalesund
2 – 2
KFUM KFUM
Full Time Sun, 12 Apr 3:00 PM
Round 4 Regular Season
Henrik Melland - 16'
I. Djantou - 88'
Goal
|
Goal
Simen Hestnes - 12'
Håkon Helland Hoseth - 63'

CONTEXT

The match between Aalesund and KFUM is now finished, ending in a 2-2 draw. The teams were level at 1-1 by half-time, and neither side could find a decisive goal in the second period despite several opportunities. Pre-match expectations positioned Aalesund as narrow favourites, yet the outcome represented a significant deviation that favoured KFUM, who were rated the stronger team overall. Possession was closely contested at 53 percent for the home side and 47 percent for the visitors, with no red cards or major disciplinary incidents affecting the flow. The efficiency shift stayed in line with expectations, though the final result did not align with the pre-match projection. Without available xG data it is difficult to quantify chance quality, but the shared points reflected a competitive contest in which KFUM successfully claimed a result few had anticipated. This draw underlines their resilience away from home against a side expected to prevail.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: KFUM showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
M. Huru Kellerhals
M. Huru Kellerhals
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 16.02
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.54
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.07
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.17
D. Nebben
D. Nebben
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 16.02
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.54
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.07
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.17
E. Helgerud
E. Helgerud
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 16.02
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.54
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.07
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.17
S. Kringstad
S. Kringstad
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 16.02
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.54
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.07
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.17
Aalesund K. Rekdal
K. Rekdal
VS
KFUM J. Moesgaard
J. Moesgaard
0.33
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0.56
0.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Fredrikstad Rank: L
Start Rank: D
Lillestrøm Rank: L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Sandefjord Rank: L
Fredrikstad Rank: L
Start Rank: W
Sandefjord Rank: L
Bodø / Glimt Rank: L
Brann Rank: D
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 0 - 0
0

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Aalesund
37.02%
Draw
27.36%
Away KFUM
35.62%

Movement

Changes since opening
Aalesund
+32.09%
Draw
-62.77%
KFUM
+30.69%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
9.26
12.29
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Aalesund
KFUM
Power Score
9.26
12.29
League Position
15
9
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Aalesund — Opponent-weighted form score
KFUM — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Aalesund KFUM

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Aalesund

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

KFUM

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Aalesund ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy KFUM
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
31.79
40.96
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
40.96
31.79
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Aalesund -0.95 Efficiency Index
vs
KFUM +0.95 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Aalesund
KFUM
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Aalesund ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy KFUM
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Aalesund KFUM
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Aalesund KFUM
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Aalesund
KFUM
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Aalesund
vs
KFUM
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Aalesund KFUM
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Aalesund 0.25
KFUM 0.38
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Aalesund KFUM
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Aalesund 0.04
KFUM 0.04
Aalesund
KFUM
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • KFUM had peak pressure around 6'.
  • KFUM started the game with stronger pressure.
Aalesund Pressure KFUM Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: KFUM reached the top pressure at 6' (89.59).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 0 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Aalesund Aalesund Home
0 matches
KFUM KFUM Away
Match Record
0
Wins
0
0
Draws
0
0
Losses
0
Goals
0
Goals Scored
0
0
Goals Conceded
0
0
Goal Difference
0
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-13T00:07:22+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 5-4-1
Match Formation 5-4-1
Pitch
K. Klaesson
Norway
1 K. Klaesson
U. Nwokoma
Substitution
Nigeria
14 U. Nwokoma
P. Aukland
Substitution
Norway
45 P. Aukland
A. Hammer Kjelsen
Norway
5 A. Hammer Kjelsen
O. Gudmundsson
Iceland
3 O. Gudmundsson
J. Ørsal
Norway
16 J. Ørsal
D. Jóhannsson
Substitution
Iceland
11 D. Jóhannsson
M. Christensen
Substitution
Denmark
21 M. Christensen
E. Hagen
Norway
18 E. Hagen
H. Molvær Melland
Substitution
Norway
8 H. Molvær Melland
K. Lonnebu
Norway
39 K. Lonnebu
H. Grøntvedt Jensen
Norway
25 H. Grøntvedt Jensen
J. Lange Hjorth
Substitution
Norway
16 J. Lange Hjorth
E. Franke Saunes
Norway
19 E. Franke Saunes
F. Berglie
Norway
5 F. Berglie
D. Schneider
Norway
2 D. Schneider
S. Sjøkvist
Norway
21 S. Sjøkvist
M. Wolff Eikrem
Substitution
Norway
23 M. Wolff Eikrem
R. Rasch
Substitution
Norway
7 R. Rasch
S. Hestnes
Norway
8 S. Hestnes
M. Vinjor
Substitution
Norway
9 M. Vinjor
T. Haltvik
Substitution
Norway
17 T. Haltvik

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 12, 2026, 03:00 PM
Competition
2026 Eliteserien, Norway · Round 4 · Regular Season
Stadium
Color Line Stadion
Capacity
10778
Pitch Surface
Artificial turf
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Mischa Huru Kellerhals
Dag Roger Nebben
Edvard Helgerud
Sigurd Smehus Kringstad

Statistics

Possession
Aalesund
53%
KFUM
47%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 2
2 Big Chances Created 1
14 Shots 17
57 Dangerous attacks 45
53 Possession 47
8 Corners 3
10 Free kicks 13
2 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

26 Throwins 16
10 Goal Kicks 3
2 Assists 1
5 Substitutions 5
21 Dribble Attempts 7
24 Successful Dribbles Percentage 29
5 Successful Dribbles 2
1 Injuries 2
6 Goal Attempts 13
86 Ball Safe 83
0 Hit Woodwork 1

Attacking

3 Counter Attacks 3
136 Attacks 97
1 Big Chances Missed 0

Possession

9 Key Passes 12
78 Successful Passes Percentage 74
39 Successful Long Passes Percentage 25
508 Passes 452
398 Successful Passes 334
66 Long Passes 77
26 Successful Long Passes 19

Defensive

4 Interceptions 10
5 Saves 2
16 Tackles 22

Build-up

23 Total Crosses 18
3 Accurate Crosses 6

Discipline

12 Fouls 10
4 Offsides 1

Lineup

Referee : Mischa Huru Kellerhals

Starting XI ▼

1
Kristoffer Klaesson
Kristoffer Klaesson Goalkeeper
3
Ólafur Guðmundsson
Ólafur Guðmundsson Defender
5
Aleksander Hammer Kjelsen
Aleksander Hammer Kjelsen Defender
14
Uba Charles
Uba Charles Defender
7
Kristoffer Nessø
Kristoffer Nessø
Midfielder75'
16
J. Ørsahl
J. Ørsahl Defender
45
Philip Sandvik Aukland
Philip Sandvik Aukland Defender
20
I. Djantou
I. Djantou
Attacker81'
8
Henrik Melland
Henrik Melland Midfielder
6
Hakon Butli Hammer
Hakon Butli Hammer
Midfielder90+5'
11
Davíð Snær Jóhannsson
Davíð Snær Jóhannsson Midfielder
17
E. Myrlid
E. Myrlid
Attacker75'
18
Elias Kristoffersen Hagen
Elias Kristoffersen Hagen Midfielder
21
Mathias Christensen
Mathias Christensen Midfielder
15
Endre Hjertager Osenbroch
Endre Hjertager Osenbroch
Midfielder76'
39
Kristian Lonebu
Kristian Lonebu Attacker
Referee : Mischa Huru Kellerhals

Starting XI ▼

25
Havar Jensen
Havar Jensen Goalkeeper
2
Daniel Schneider
Daniel Schneider Defender
5
Fredrik Berglie
Fredrik Berglie Defender
16
Jonas Lange Hjorth
Jonas Lange Hjorth Defender
14
Håkon Helland Hoseth
Håkon Helland Hoseth
Defender58'
19
Eirik Saunes
Eirik Saunes Defender
21
S. Sjøkvist
S. Sjøkvist Defender
7
Robin Rasch
Robin Rasch Midfielder
22
Bjørn Martin Kristensen
Bjørn Martin Kristensen
Attacker76'
8
Simen Hestnes
Simen Hestnes Midfielder
9
Martin Tangen Vinjor
Martin Tangen Vinjor Midfielder
33
Amin Nouri
Amin Nouri
Defender85'
23
Magnus Wolff Eikrem
Magnus Wolff Eikrem Midfielder
18
Rasmus Eggen Vinge
Rasmus Eggen Vinge
Attacker58'
17
Teodor Berg Haltvik
Teodor Berg Haltvik Attacker
28
Magnus Grødem
Magnus Grødem
Attacker85'

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Hakon Butli Hammer → Henrik Melland
10th Substitution
90+5'
Event
Endre Hjertager Osenbroch
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
90+5'
Event
I. Djantou
Header / 4th Goal
88'
85'
Event
Amin Nouri → Martin Tangen Vinjor
9th Substitution
85'
Event
Magnus Grødem → Teodor Berg Haltvik
8th Substitution
83'
Event
Martin Tangen Vinjor
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
Event
I. Djantou → Philip Sandvik Aukland
7th Substitution
81'
Event
Endre Hjertager Osenbroch → Mathias Christensen
6th Substitution
76'
76'
Event
Bjørn Martin Kristensen → Robin Rasch
5th Substitution
Event
Kristoffer Nessø → Uba Charles
4th Substitution
75'
Event
E. Myrlid → Davíð Snær Jóhannsson
3rd Substitution
75'
63'
Event
Håkon Helland Hoseth
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
Event
Davíð Snær Jóhannsson
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
62'
58'
Event
Rasmus Eggen Vinge → Magnus Wolff Eikrem
2nd Substitution
58'
Event
Håkon Helland Hoseth → Jonas Lange Hjorth
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
34'
Event
Robin Rasch
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
Event
Henrik Melland
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
16'
12'
Event
Simen Hestnes
Header / 1st Goal

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: KFUM exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

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