Norwich City vs Preston North End Prediction, Preview and Stats

England flag 2025/2026 Championship, England
Carrow Road Sat, 14 Mar - 3:00 PM
Championship
Norwich City NOR
2 Winner 0
Preston North End PNE
Full Time Sat, 14 Mar 3:00 PM
Ali Ahmed - 17'
Kenny McLean - 39'
Goal
|

CONTEXT

Match is finished. Norwich City 0–0 Preston North End. The match ended in a draw. Norwich City showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result diverged from the pre-match projection. Possession was 63%–37%.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Norwich City showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
D. Harrison
D. Harrison
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 14.33
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.67
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.13
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.21
G. Ward
G. Ward
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 14.33
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.67
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.13
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.21
M. Russell
M. Russell
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 14.33
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.67
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.13
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.21
W. Finnie
W. Finnie
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 14.33
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.67
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.13
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.21
Norwich City P. Clement
P. Clement
VS
Preston North End P. Heckingbottom
P. Heckingbottom
1.08
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.46
2 i
Last 6 Opponents
Coventry City Rank: 75 W
West Bromwich Albion Rank: 64 W
Wrexham Rank: 73 W
Stoke City Rank: 68 L
Queens Park Rangers Rank: 67 W
Watford Rank: 67 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1 i
Last 6 Opponents
Middlesbrough Rank: 74 L
Hull City Rank: 72 L
Derby County Rank: 71 L
Bristol City Rank: 71 W
Sheffield Wednesday Rank: 55 W
Wrexham Rank: 73 L
8
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
8 - 10 - 9
9

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Norwich City
59.01%
Draw
23.04%
Away Preston North End
17.95%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
70.9
64.01
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Norwich City
Preston North End
Power Score
70.9
64.01
League Position
12
17
Global Rank
162
336

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Norwich City — Opponent-weighted form score
Preston North End — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Norwich City Preston North End

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Norwich City

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Preston North End

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Norwich City ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Preston North End
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
17.30
44.73
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
44.73
17.30
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Norwich City -2.66 Efficiency Index
vs
Preston North End +2.66 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Norwich City
Preston North End
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Norwich City
vs
Preston North End
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Norwich City Preston North End
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
0%
0%
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
+0.00 vs +0.00
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Norwich City Preston North End
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
Norwich City
Preston North End
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 9 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Norwich City NOR Home
9 matches
Preston North End PNE Away
Match Record
2
Wins
2
5
Draws
5
2
Losses
2
Goals
13
Goals Scored
10
10
Goals Conceded
13
+3
Goal Difference
-3
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-03-16T01:08:19+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 5-3-2
Pitch
V. Kovačević
Bosnia and Herzegovina
1 V. Kovačević
J. Stacey
England
3 J. Stacey
H. Darling
England
6 H. Darling
J. Cordoba Chambers
Panama
33 J. Cordoba Chambers
B. Chrisene
Substitution
England
14 B. Chrisene
P. Mattsson
Substitution
Denmark
7 P. Mattsson
K. McLean
Scotland
23 (C) K. McLean
L. Gibbs
England
8 L. Gibbs
A. Slimane
Substitution
Tunisia
20 A. Slimane
A. Ahmed
Substitution
Canada
21 A. Ahmed
M. Kvistgaarden
Substitution
Denmark
30 M. Kvistgaarden
D. Iversen
Denmark
1 D. Iversen
T. Small
Substitution
England
26 T. Small
A. Hughes
Wales
16 A. Hughes
L. Lindsay
Scotland
6 L. Lindsay
J. Storey
England
14 J. Storey
O. Offiah
Substitution
England
42 O. Offiah
J. Thompson
Substitution
Northern Ireland
15 J. Thompson
B. Whiteman
Substitution
England
4 (C) B. Whiteman
A. Moran
Substitution
Republic of Ireland
23 A. Moran
L. Dobbin
England
17 L. Dobbin
D. Jebbison
Canada
9 D. Jebbison

General Information

Date & Time
Mar 14, 2026, 03:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Championship, England
Stadium
Carrow Road
Capacity
27244
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
David Harrison
Gavin Ward
Mark Russell
Will Finnie

Statistics

Possession
NOR
59%
PNE
41%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 0
3 Big Chances Created 5
5 Shots 2
38 Dangerous attacks 31
63 Possession 37
5 Corners 3
14 Free kicks 9
1 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

5 Successful Dribbles 4
86 Ball Safe 46
7 Goal Attempts 6
5 Substitutions 5
1 Hit Woodwork 0
7 Dribble Attempts 8
31 Throwins 21
10 Successful Headers 24
11 Goal Kicks 10
71 Successful Dribbles Percentage 50

Attacking

2 Big Chances Missed 5
84 Attacks 88

Possession

357 Successful Passes 184
78 Successful Passes Percentage 67
77 Long Passes 56
460 Passes 274
31 Successful Long Passes Percentage 36
24 Successful Long Passes 20
5 Key Passes 10

Defensive

4 Saves 1
7 Interceptions 10
9 Tackles 7

Build-up

1 Accurate Crosses 4
16 Total Crosses 11

Discipline

9 Fouls 14
0 Offsides 2

Lineup

Referee : Gavin Ward

Starting XI ▼

1
Vladan Kovačević
Vladan Kovačević Goalkeeper
7.55
3
Jack Stacey
Jack Stacey Defender
6.81
6
Harry Darling
Harry Darling Defender
6.54
14
Ben Chrisene
Ben Chrisene Defender
6.54
35
Kellen Fisher
Kellen Fisher
Defender60'
6.35
33
José Córdoba
José Córdoba Defender
6.95
7
P. Mattsson
P. Mattsson Midfielder
6.95
26
Sam Field
Sam Field
Midfielder61'
6.95
8
Liam Gibbs
Liam Gibbs Midfielder
6.55
20
Anis Slimane
Anis Slimane Midfielder
6.54
25
Paris Maghoma
Paris Maghoma
Midfielder61'
7.01
21
Ali Ahmed
Ali Ahmed Midfielder
7.55
18
Amankwah Forson
Amankwah Forson
Midfielder88'
23
Kenny McLean
Kenny McLean (C) Midfielder
7.75
30
Mathias Kvistgaarden
Mathias Kvistgaarden Attacker
6.81
46
Errol Mundle-Smith
Errol Mundle-Smith
Attacker61'
6.36
Referee : Gavin Ward

Starting XI ▼

1
Daniel Iversen
Daniel Iversen Goalkeeper
6.2
6
Liam Lindsay
Liam Lindsay Defender
7.12
14
Jordan Storey
Jordan Storey Defender
7.01
16
Andrew Hughes
Andrew Hughes Defender
6.05
26
Thierry Small
Thierry Small Defender
6.24
11
Robbie Brady
Robbie Brady
Midfielder81'
6.5
42
Odeluga Offiah
Odeluga Offiah Defender
6.24
44
Brad Potts
Brad Potts
Midfielder64'
6.66
4
Ben Whiteman
Ben Whiteman (C) Midfielder
6.76
24
Michael Smith
Michael Smith
Attacker81'
6.17
15
Jordan Andrew Thompson
Jordan Andrew Thompson Midfielder
6.29
2
Pol Valentín
Pol Valentín
Defender65'
6.61
23
Andrew Moran
Andrew Moran Midfielder
6.31
21
Alfie Devine
Alfie Devine
Midfielder64'
6.96
9
Daniel Jebbison
Daniel Jebbison Attacker
6.4
17
Lewis Dobbin
Lewis Dobbin Attacker
6.63

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Amankwah Forson → Ali Ahmed
10th Substitution
88'
87'
Event
Brad Potts
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
81'
Event
Michael Smith → Ben Whiteman
9th Substitution
81'
Event
Robbie Brady → Thierry Small
8th Substitution
65'
Event
Pol Valentín → Jordan Andrew Thompson
7th Substitution
64'
Event
Alfie Devine → Andrew Moran
5th Substitution
64'
Event
Brad Potts → Odeluga Offiah
6th Substitution
Event
Errol Mundle-Smith → Mathias Kvistgaarden
4th Substitution
61'
Event
Paris Maghoma → Anis Slimane
3rd Substitution
61'
Event
Sam Field → P. Mattsson
2nd Substitution
61'
Event
Kellen Fisher → Ben Chrisene
1st Substitution
60'
1ST-HALF
Event
Kenny McLean
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
39'
Event
Ali Ahmed
Left foot shot / 1st Goal
17'
Event
Anis Slimane
Simulation / 1st Yellowcard
13'

Match Commentary

90
Update Update
That's it! The match has concluded with Norwich City defeating Preston North End by a score of 2-0.
90
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Preston North End after Paris Maghoma allowed the ball to go out.
90
Update Update
The second half has concluded with Norwich City defeating Preston North End 2-0.
90
Update Update
Offside call against Preston North End. Robert Brady has been caught offside.
90
Update Update
Offside call against Preston North End. Michael Smith has been caught in an offside position.
90
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be 5 minutes of stoppage time.
90
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Preston North End after Paris Maghoma allowed the ball to go out.
90
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Daniel Jebbison from Preston North End takes a right-footed shot from the middle of the penalty area, but it gets blocked.
88
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Norwich City: Amankwah Forson replaces Ali Ahmed.
87
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Brad Potts from Preston North End has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
87
Update Update
Brad Potts from Preston North End committed a foul.
87
Update Update
Sam Field from Norwich City has been awarded a free kick in an offensive position.
86
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity. Paris Maghoma of Norwich City attempted a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it went wide. The assist came from Sam Field.
86
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to Norwich City after Brad Potts allowed the ball to go out.
84
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity wasted! Brad Potts from Preston North End took a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it sailed over the bar and to the right. The assist came from Pol Valentín.
82
Attempt Attempt
The attempt on goal has been thwarted. Errol Mundle-Smith from Norwich City fired a right-footed shot from the left side of the penalty area, but it was successfully blocked. The assist came from Ali Ahmed.
82
Corner Corner
A fresh offensive move unfolds as Robert Brady from Preston North End takes a left-footed shot from the left side of the penalty area. The attempt is successfully stopped in the left corner by Norwich City's Vladan Kovacevic. The assist comes from Lewis Dobbin, who delivered a cross.
82
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Norwich City after Pol Valentín allowed the ball to go out.
81
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Preston North End: Robert Brady comes on to replace Thierry Small.
81
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Preston North End: Michael Smith replaces Benjamin Whiteman.
80
Update Update
Paris Maghoma of Norwich City has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
80
Update Update
Liam Lindsay from Preston North End committed a foul.
79
Update Update
Daniel Jebbison from Preston North End committed a foul.
79
Update Update
Harry Darling from Norwich City has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
78
Attempt Attempt
A fresh offensive effort unfolds as Thierry Small from Preston North End takes a left-footed shot from the left side of the penalty area, but it's successfully stopped by the goalkeeper.
76
Update Update
Liam Gibbs from Norwich City earned a free kick on the right side of the field.
76
Update Update
Andrew Hughes from Preston North End committed a foul.
75
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity wasted. Lewis Dobbin from Preston North End attempted a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area.
74
Update Update
Lewis Dobbin from Preston North End has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
74
Update Update
Paris Maghoma commits a foul against Norwich City.
73
Update Update
Pol Valentín committed a foul on a player from Preston North End.
73
Update Update
Ali Ahmed from Norwich City has been awarded a free kick on the left side of the field.
73
Update Update
Liam Lindsay from Preston North End committed a foul.
73
Update Update
Harry Darling from Norwich City was awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
72
Update Update
Alfie Devine from Preston North End was awarded a free kick on the left side of the field.
72
Update Update
Kenny McLean from Norwich City committed a foul.
71
Update Update
Kenny McLean from Norwich City committed a foul.
70
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity! Andrew Hughes from Preston North End had a header from close range but failed to convert. The assist came from Alfie Devine, who delivered a well-placed cross.
70
Update Update
Alfie Devine from Preston North End has earned a free kick in an offensive position.
69
Update Update
Pol Valentín of Preston North End was awarded a free kick on the right flank.
69
Update Update
Ali Ahmed from Norwich City committed a foul.
68
Update Update
Harry Darling from Norwich City committed a handball.
65
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Preston North End: Pol Valentín replaces Jordan Thompson.
64
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Preston North End: Brad Potts comes on to replace Odeluga Offiah.
64
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Preston North End: Alfie Devine comes on to replace Andrew Moran.
61
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Norwich City: Sam Field is coming on to replace Pelle Mattsson.
61
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Norwich City: Errol Mundle-Smith is coming on to replace Mathias Kvistgaarden.
61
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Norwich City: Paris Maghoma comes on to replace Anis Ben Slimane.
60
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Norwich City: Kellen Fisher replaces Ben Chrisene due to an injury.
59
Update Update
The pause has ended. They’re set to resume play.
58
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Thierry Small from Preston North End takes a left-footed shot from the left side of the penalty area, but it gets blocked. The assist was provided by Odeluga Offiah.
58
Update Update
Match is currently paused due to an injury to Ben Chrisene from Norwich City.
51
Update Update
Pelle Mattsson from Norwich City earned a free kick in the defensive area.
51
Update Update
Pelle Mattsson from Norwich City earned a free kick in the defensive area.
48
Update Update
Kenny McLean from Norwich City committed a foul.
48
Update Update
Lewis Dobbin from Preston North End earned a free kick on the left flank.
45
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be one minute of stoppage time.
45
Update Update
The first half has concluded with Norwich City leading Preston North End 2-0.
45
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Norwich City after Daniel Iversen allowed the ball to go out.
44
Update Update
The attempt is thwarted. Mathias Kvistgaarden from Norwich City heads the ball from the middle of the penalty area, but it gets blocked.
44
Attempt Attempt
Liam Gibbs from Norwich City strikes the crossbar with a right-footed shot taken from the right side of the penalty area.
44
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Norwich City after Jordan Storey allowed the ball to go out.
43
Update Update
Ali Ahmed from Norwich City was awarded a free kick on the left flank.
43
Update Update
Andrew Moran from Preston North End committed a foul.
39
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Norwich City leads 2-0 against Preston North End. Kenny McLean scores for Norwich City with a left-footed shot from a free kick, sending the ball into the top right corner of the net.
38
Update Update
Jordan Thompson of Preston North End has committed a foul.
38
Update Update
Mathias Kvistgaarden from Norwich City has been awarded a free kick in an attacking position.
37
Update Update
Another offensive effort underway. Benjamin Whiteman from Preston North End attempts a header from the middle of the box, but it's expertly stopped by Vladan Kovacevic, the Norwich City goalkeeper, right in the center of the goal. The assist came from Liam Lindsay, who also delivered a header.
36
Update Update
Thierry Small from Preston North End has earned a free kick in an offensive position.
36
Update Update
Liam Gibbs from Norwich City committed a foul.
33
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Norwich City after Liam Lindsay allowed the ball to go out.
30
Update Update
Liam Lindsay from Preston North End committed a foul.
30
Update Update
Mathias Kvistgaarden from Norwich City was awarded a free kick on the right flank.
28
Update Update
Another offensive effort unfolds as Andrew Hughes from Preston North End attempts a header from close range, but Norwich City's goalkeeper, Vladan Kovacevic, makes a crucial save right in the middle of the goal. The assist came from Jordan Thompson, who delivered a well-placed cross.
28
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Preston North End after Jack Stacey allowed the ball to go out.
26
Update Update
Jordan Thompson from Preston North End has been awarded a free kick in an attacking position.
26
Update Update
Lewis Dobbin from Preston North End has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
21
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity squandered. Mathias Kvistgaarden of Norwich City attempted a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area.
20
Update Update
Andrew Hughes from Preston North End committed a foul.
20
Update Update
Liam Gibbs from Norwich City has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
19
Update Update
Kenny McLean from Norwich City earned a free kick in the defensive area.
19
Update Update
Jordan Thompson from Preston North End committed a foul.
17
Corner Corner
A fresh offensive play unfolds as Mathias Kvistgaarden from Norwich City takes a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area. The attempt is expertly stopped in the right corner by Daniel Iversen of Preston North End, with Anis Ben Slimane providing the assist.
17
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Norwich City takes the lead with a score of 1-0 against Preston North End. Ali Ahmed scores for Norwich City, firing a left-footed shot from the middle of the box right into the center of the net.
15
Update Update
Offside call against Preston North End. Thierry Small has been caught offside.
14
Update Update
Jordan Storey from Preston North End earned a free kick in the defensive area.
14
Update Update
Mathias Kvistgaarden from Norwich City committed a foul.
13
Update Update
Anis Ben Slimane from Norwich City has fallen to the ground, but the referee believes he is faking it.
13
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Anis Ben Slimane from Norwich City has been shown a yellow card.
11
Update Update
Jordan Thompson committed a foul against Preston North End.
11
Update Update
Kenny McLean from Norwich City was awarded a free kick on the right side of the field.
11
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Norwich City after Daniel Jebbison allowed the ball to go out of play.
10
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity! Ben Chrisene from Norwich City took a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area that narrowly missed the target. The assist came from Kenny McLean.
6
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity squandered. Daniel Jebbison from Preston North End attempted a right-footed shot from the center of the penalty area.
4
Update Update
Thierry Small committed a foul on a Preston North End player.
4
Update Update
Mathias Kvistgaarden from Norwich City has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
3
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Preston North End after Pelle Mattsson gave it away.

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Norwich City exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

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