Huesca vs Deportivo La Coruña Prediction, Preview and Stats

Spain flag 2025/2026 La Liga 2, Spain
Estadio El Alcoraz Sun, 12 Apr - 2:15 PM
La Liga 2
Huesca HUE
1 – 1
Deportivo La Coruña COR
Full Time Sun, 12 Apr 2:15 PM
Round 35 Regular Season
Álvaro Carrillo - 90'
Goal
|
Goal
Luismi Cruz - 73'
Jorge Pulido 90+6' Red Card
|

CONTEXT

The match between Huesca and Deportivo La Coruña is finished, ending in a 1-1 draw. Pre-match assessments had anticipated a draw as the overwhelmingly likely outcome, yet the contest produced a moderate deviation, centered on Deportivo La Coruña. Although regarded as the stronger side throughout the buildup, the visitors could not convert their status into a victory, settling instead for a point that ultimately stayed aligned with the core pre-match projection. Deportivo La Coruña held 56 percent possession to Huesca’s 44 percent but were unable to generate a decisive edge. No expected goals data is available, and the efficiency shift stayed in line with expectations. The result was shaped by a red card to Huesca, which created second-half distortion and forced the home side to play with ten men for a significant period. Despite the numerical disadvantage, Huesca held firm to earn the draw, preventing the stronger team from pulling clear.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Deportivo La Coruña showed a moderate deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: Red card(s) affected the match (Classify).
  • Red card distortion: Classify as red card distortion.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
J. González Esteban
J. González Esteban
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 20.64
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 4.61
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.22
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.3
D. Pérez de Colosía Alonso
D. Pérez de Colosía Alonso
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 20.64
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 4.61
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.22
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.3
L. Marín Robles
L. Marín Robles
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 20.64
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 4.61
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.22
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.3
D. López Jiménez
D. López Jiménez
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 20.64
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 4.61
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.22
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.3
Huesca J. Oltra Castañer
J. Oltra Castañer
VS
Deportivo La Coruña A. Hidalgo Morilla
A. Hidalgo Morilla
0.73
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.69
0.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Las Palmas Rank: L
Cultural Leonesa Rank: D
Granada Rank: L
Almería Rank: L
Málaga Rank: L
Albacete Rank: D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Málaga Rank: D
Córdoba Rank: W
Sporting Gijón Rank: D
Real Zaragoza Rank: W
Ceuta Rank: W
Granada Rank: L
2
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
2 - 1 - 4
4

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Huesca
4.02%
Draw
90.55%
Away Deportivo La Coruña
5.43%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
14.16
29.87
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Huesca
Deportivo La Coruña
Power Score
14.16
29.87
League Position
20
3
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Huesca — Opponent-weighted form score
Deportivo La Coruña — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Huesca Deportivo La Coruña

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Huesca

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Deportivo La Coruña

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Huesca ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Deportivo La Coruña
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
25.45
33.57
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
33.57
25.45
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Huesca -0.81 Efficiency Index
vs
Deportivo La Coruña +0.81 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Huesca
Deportivo La Coruña
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Huesca ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Deportivo La Coruña
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Huesca Deportivo La Coruña
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Huesca Deportivo La Coruña
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Huesca
Deportivo La Coruña
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Huesca
vs
Deportivo La Coruña
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Huesca Deportivo La Coruña
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Huesca 0.20
Deportivo La Coruña 0.47
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Huesca Deportivo La Coruña
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Huesca 0.03
Deportivo La Coruña 0.02
Huesca
Deportivo La Coruña
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • COR had peak pressure around 71'.
  • COR started the game with stronger pressure.
HUE Pressure COR Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: COR reached the top pressure at 71' (100.00).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 7 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Huesca HUE Home
7 matches
Deportivo La Coruña COR Away
Match Record
2
Wins
4
1
Draws
1
4
Losses
2
Goals
7
Goals Scored
12
12
Goals Conceded
7
-5
Goal Difference
+5
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-13T00:06:31+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-4-2
Pitch
D. Jiménez López
Spain
13 D. Jiménez López
J. Abad Martínez
Substitution
Spain
2 J. Abad Martínez
I. Sebastián Magaña
Spain
5 I. Sebastián Magaña
J. Pulido Mayoral
Spain
14 J. Pulido Mayoral
J. Alonso Sosa
Spain
17 J. Alonso Sosa
J. Álvarez Aguado
Substitution
Spain
16 J. Álvarez Aguado
J. Mier Martínez
Substitution
Spain
6 J. Mier Martínez
D. Luna
Substitution
Colombia
33 D. Luna
F. Portillo Soler
Spain
20 F. Portillo Soler
J. Martín Camuñas
Spain
8 J. Martín Camuñas
E. Rodríguez Heres
Substitution
Spain
18 E. Rodríguez Heres
Á. Fernández Llorente
Spain
25 Á. Fernández Llorente
G. Quagliata
Italy
12 G. Quagliata
D. Barcia Rama
Spain
5 D. Barcia Rama
M. Loureiro Ameijeda
Spain
15 M. Loureiro Ameijeda
J. Navarro Jiménez
Spain
23 J. Navarro Jiménez
L. Cruz Hernández
Substitution
Spain
19 L. Cruz Hernández
D. Villares Yáñez
Substitution
Spain
8 D. Villares Yáñez
M. Soriano Carreño
Substitution
Spain
21 M. Soriano Carreño
A. Altimira Reynaldos
Spain
2 A. Altimira Reynaldos
S. Mulattieri
Substitution
Italy
7 S. Mulattieri
J. Molina Martínez
Substitution
Spain
22 J. Molina Martínez

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 12, 2026, 02:15 PM
Competition
2025/2026 La Liga 2, Spain · Round 35 · Regular Season
Stadium
Estadio El Alcoraz
Capacity
9100
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Jon Ander González Esteban
David Pérez de Colosía Alonso
Luis Miguel Marín Robles
David López Jiménez

Statistics

Possession
HUE
45%
COR
55%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 1
2 Big Chances Created 1
3 Shots 7
44 Dangerous attacks 36
44 Possession 56
6 Corners 9
6 Free kicks 14
2 Yellow Cards 2
1 Red Cards 0

Match Overview

0 Assists 1
1 Hit Woodwork 1
6 Goal Attempts 10
5 Substitutions 5
12 Dribble Attempts 10
3 Successful Dribbles 8
25 Successful Dribbles Percentage 80
57 Ball Safe 72
14 Throwins 9
11 Goal Kicks 5

Attacking

1 Big Chances Missed 1
89 Attacks 89

Possession

84 Successful Passes Percentage 87
34 Successful Long Passes 35
353 Successful Passes 469
5 Key Passes 11
52 Successful Long Passes Percentage 55
65 Long Passes 64
418 Passes 541

Defensive

2 Saves 1
6 Tackles 10
13 Interceptions 9

Build-up

4 Accurate Crosses 5
20 Total Crosses 20

Discipline

2 Offsides 0
13 Fouls 7

Lineup

Referee : Jon Ander González Esteban

Starting XI ▼

13
Dani Jiménez
Dani Jiménez Goalkeeper
2
Toni Abad
Toni Abad Defender
4
Álvaro Carrillo
Álvaro Carrillo
Defender65'
5
Piña
Piña Defender
14
Jorge Pulido
Jorge Pulido Defender
17
Julio Alonso
Julio Alonso Defender
6
Javi Mier
Javi Mier Midfielder
15
Álex Cantero
Álex Cantero
Attacker83'
8
Jordi Martín
Jordi Martín Midfielder
16
Jesús Álvarez
Jesús Álvarez Midfielder
22
Michael Agbekpornu
Michael Agbekpornu
Midfielder65'
20
Francisco Portillo
Francisco Portillo Midfielder
33
Daniel Luna
Daniel Luna Midfielder
11
Liberto Beltrán
Liberto Beltrán
Attacker74'
18
Enol Rodríguez
Enol Rodríguez Attacker
9
Sergi Enrich
Sergi Enrich
Attacker74'
Referee : Jon Ander González Esteban

Starting XI ▼

25
Álvaro Fernández
Álvaro Fernández Goalkeeper
5
Dani Barcia
Dani Barcia Defender
12
Giacomo Quagliata
Giacomo Quagliata Defender
15
Miguel Loureiro
Miguel Loureiro Defender
23
Ximo Navarro
Ximo Navarro Defender
2
Adrià Altimira
Adrià Altimira Midfielder
8
Diego Villares
Diego Villares Midfielder
14
Riki Rodríguez
Riki Rodríguez
Midfielder57'
19
Luismi Cruz
Luismi Cruz Midfielder
6
Charlie Patiño
Charlie Patiño
Midfielder81'
21
Mario Soriano
Mario Soriano Midfielder
16
José Gragera
José Gragera
Midfielder89'
7
Samuele Mulattieri
Samuele Mulattieri Attacker
32
Bil Dornol Nsongo Tonfack
Bil Dornol Nsongo Tonfack
Attacker57'
22
Stoichkov
Stoichkov Attacker
10
Yeremay Hernández
Yeremay Hernández
Attacker57'

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Jorge Pulido
Professional foul last man / 1st Redcard
90+6'
Event
Álvaro Carrillo
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
90'
89'
Event
José Gragera → Mario Soriano
10th Substitution
Event
Álex Cantero → Javi Mier
9th Substitution
83'
81'
Event
Charlie Patiño → Luismi Cruz
8th Substitution
77'
Event
Dani Barcia
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
Event
Liberto Beltrán → Daniel Luna
6th Substitution
74'
Event
Sergi Enrich → Enol Rodríguez
7th Substitution
74'
73'
Event
Luismi Cruz
Left foot shot / 1st Goal
Event
Álvaro Carrillo → Toni Abad
5th Substitution
65'
Event
Michael Agbekpornu → Jesús Álvarez
4th Substitution
65'
Event
Jesús Álvarez
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
58'
57'
Event
Yeremay Hernández → Stoichkov
1st Substitution
57'
Event
Bil Dornol Nsongo Tonfack → Samuele Mulattieri
2nd Substitution
57'
Event
Riki Rodríguez → Diego Villares
3rd Substitution
1ST-HALF
42'
Event
Giacomo Quagliata
Argument / 2nd Yellowcard
Event
Javi Mier
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
22'

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Deportivo La Coruña exhibited a moderate deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Structural distortion: The match was materially influenced by red card(s), altering baseline dynamics. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

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