Widzew Lodz vs Lech Poznań Prediction, Preview and Stats

Poland flag 2025/2026 Ekstraklasa, Poland
Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź Sat, 7 Mar - 7:15 PM
Ekstraklasa
Widzew Lodz Widzew Lodz
2 Winner 1
Lech Poznań Lech Poznań
Full Time Sat, 7 Mar 7:15 PM
Fran Álvarez - 34'
Emil Kornvig - 52'
Goal
|
Goal
Gísli Thórdarson - 28'

CONTEXT

Match is finished. Widzew Lodz 2–1 Lech Poznań. The result saw Widzew Lodz take the points. Widzew Lodz showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result aligned with the pre-match projection. Possession was 29%–71%.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Widzew Lodz showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
S. Marciniak
S. Marciniak
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 8.67
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 1.27
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
T. Listkiewicz
T. Listkiewicz
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 8.67
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 1.27
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
T. Marciniak
T. Marciniak
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 8.67
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 1.27
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
K. Nejman
K. Nejman
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 8.67
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 1.27
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Widzew Lodz A. Vukovic
A. Vukovic
VS
Lech Poznań N. Frederiksen
N. Frederiksen
1.06
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.47
0.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Pogoń Szczecin Rank: L
Cracovia Kraków Rank: D
Wisła Płock Rank: W
Katowice Rank: L
Jagiellonia Białystok Rank: L
Zagłębie Lubin Rank: L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Korona Kielce Rank: W
Piast Gliwice Rank: W
Górnik Zabrze Rank: W
Piast Gliwice Rank: L
Lechia Gdańsk Rank: L
Cracovia Kraków Rank: D
4
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
4 - 5 - 10
10

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Widzew Lodz
42.15%
Draw
26.79%
Away Lech Poznań
31.07%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks’ model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
37.5
52.78
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Widzew Lodz
Lech Poznań
Power Score
37.5
52.78
League Position
15
3
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Widzew Lodz — Opponent-weighted form score
Lech Poznań — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Widzew Lodz Lech Poznań

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Widzew Lodz

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Lech Poznań

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Widzew Lodz ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Lech Poznań
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
39.14
17.04
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
17.04
39.14
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Widzew Lodz +2.08 Efficiency Index
vs
Lech Poznań -2.08 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Widzew Lodz
Lech Poznań
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Widzew Lodz ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Lech Poznań
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Widzew Lodz Lech Poznań
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Widzew Lodz Lech Poznań
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Widzew Lodz
Lech Poznań
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 7 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Widzew Lodz Widzew Lodz Home
7 matches
Lech Poznań Lech Poznań Away
Match Record
2
Wins
4
1
Draws
1
4
Losses
2
Goals
9
Goals Scored
13
13
Goals Conceded
9
-4
Goal Difference
+4
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-03-08T00:14:06+00:00

TEAM FORMATION

No team formation data available.

General Information

Date & Time
Mar 07, 2026, 07:15 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Ekstraklasa, Poland
Stadium
Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź
Capacity
18018
Attendance
16468
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Szymon Marciniak
Tomasz Listkiewicz
Tomasz Marciniak
K. Nejman

Statistics

Possession
Widzew Lodz
36%
Lech Poznań
64%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 1
1 Big Chances Created 1
6 Shots 6
7 Dangerous attacks 2
29 Possession 71
3 Corners 5
11 Free kicks 21
3 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

64 Successful Dribbles Percentage 42
14 Dribble Attempts 19
9 Throwins 22
10 Goal Kicks 10
9 Successful Dribbles 8
1 Assists 1
1 Injuries 0
8 Goal Attempts 5
55 Ball Safe 69
4 Substitutions 5

Attacking

73 Attacks 99

Possession

68 Successful Passes Percentage 87
146 Successful Passes 489
63 Long Passes 41
214 Passes 561
25 Successful Long Passes 20
40 Successful Long Passes Percentage 49

Defensive

21 Tackles 10
7 Interceptions 5
5 Saves 2

Build-up

4 Accurate Crosses 5
20 Total Crosses 20

Discipline

15 Fouls 6
3 Offsides 1

Events

2ND-HALF
87'
Event
Ali Gholizadeh
Argument / 5th Yellowcard
86'
Event
Pablo Rodríguez
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
Event
Lindon Selahi → Marcel Krajewski
9th Substitution
81'
80'
Event
Joel Pereira → Robert Gumny
8th Substitution
Event
Andi Zeqiri
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
77'
Event
Ángel Baena → Emil Kornvig
7th Substitution
73'
71'
Event
Patrik Wålemark → Leo Bengtsson
6th Substitution
Event
Emil Kornvig
Argument / 2nd Yellowcard
70'
Event
Mariusz Fornalczyk → Fran Álvarez
4th Substitution
62'
Event
Andi Zeqiri → Sebastian Bergier
5th Substitution
62'
58'
Event
Pablo Rodríguez → Gísli Thórdarson
3rd Substitution
58'
Event
Mikael Ishak → Yannick Agnero
2nd Substitution
58'
Event
Ali Gholizadeh → Taofeek Ismaheel
1st Substitution
Event
Mateusz Zyro
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
54'
Event
Emil Kornvig
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
52'
1ST-HALF
Event
Fran Álvarez
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
34'
28'
Event
Gísli Thórdarson
Right foot shot / 1st Goal

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Widzew Lodz exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

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