Watford vs Wrexham Prediction, Preview and Stats

England flag 2025/2026 Championship, England
Vicarage Road Tue, 17 Mar - 7:45 PM
Championship
Watford WAT
3 Winner 1
Wrexham WXH
Full Time Tue, 17 Mar 7:45 PM
Marc Bola - 18'
Edo Kayembe - 38'
Edoardo Bove - 90+4'
Goal
|
Goal
Max Cleworth - 49'

CONTEXT

Match is finished. Watford 3–1 Wrexham. The result saw Watford take the points. Watford showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result aligned with the pre-match projection. Possession was 42%–58%.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Watford showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
No referee statistics available.
Watford E. Still
E. Still
VS
Wrexham P. Parkinson
P. Parkinson
1.58
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.64
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Swansea City Rank: 68 L
Blackburn Rovers Rank: 67 D
Portsmouth Rank: 67 D
Millwall Rank: 73 L
Birmingham City Rank: 73 W
Norwich City Rank: 71 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2 i
Last 6 Opponents
Norwich City Rank: 71 L
Derby County Rank: 71 W
Blackburn Rovers Rank: 67 W
Preston North End Rank: 68 W
Sheffield United Rank: 72 W
Swansea City Rank: 68 L
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 1 - 0
0

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Watford
42.65%
Draw
27.8%
Away Wrexham
29.55%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
66.44
66.66
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Watford
Wrexham
Power Score
66.44
66.66
League Position
9
6
Global Rank
260
106

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Watford — Opponent-weighted form score
Wrexham — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Watford Wrexham

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Watford

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Wrexham

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Watford ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Wrexham
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
34.64
20.00
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
20.00
34.64
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Watford +1.38 Efficiency Index
vs
Wrexham -1.38 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Watford
Wrexham
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Watford ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Wrexham
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Watford Wrexham
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Watford Wrexham
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Watford
Wrexham
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 1 match between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Watford WAT Home
1 matches
Wrexham WXH Away
Match Record
0
Wins
0
1
Draws
1
0
Losses
0
Goals
2
Goals Scored
2
2
Goals Conceded
2
0
Goal Difference
0
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-03-18T00:05:08+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-4-2
Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Pitch
E. Selvik
Norway
1 E. Selvik
J. Abankwah
Substitution
Republic of Ireland
25 J. Abankwah
M. Pollock
England
6 M. Pollock
S. Goglichidze
Georgia
3 S. Goglichidze
M. Bola
England
16 M. Bola
N. Irankunda
Substitution
Australia
66 N. Irankunda
I. Louza
Morocco
10 (C) I. Louza
P. Ekwah Elimby
Substitution
France
17 P. Ekwah Elimby
G. Chakvetadze
Substitution
Georgia
8 G. Chakvetadze
L. Kjerrumgaard
Denmark
9 L. Kjerrumgaard
E. Kayembe
Substitution
DR Congo
39 E. Kayembe
A. Okonkwo
England
1 A. Okonkwo
C. Doyle
England
2 C. Doyle
D. Hyam
Scotland
5 (C) D. Hyam
M. Cleworth
Wales
4 M. Cleworth
G. Thomason
England
14 G. Thomason
L. O'Brien
England
27 L. O'Brien
Z. Vyner
Substitution
England
26 Z. Vyner
R. Longman
Substitution
England
47 R. Longman
N. Broadhead
Substitution
Wales
33 N. Broadhead
O. Rathbone
Substitution
England
20 O. Rathbone
S. Smith
Substitution
England
28 S. Smith

General Information

Date & Time
Mar 17, 2026, 07:45 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Championship, England
Stadium
Vicarage Road
Capacity
21400
Attendance
16378
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Adam Herczeg
Carl Fitch
Lee Swabey
C. Gough

Statistics

Possession
WAT
45%
WXH
55%

Top Statistics

3 Goals 1
2 Big Chances Created 0
7 Shots 3
31 Dangerous attacks 72
42 Possession 58
3 Corners 5
7 Free kicks 13
2 Yellow Cards 0

Match Overview

9 Throwins 20
24 Successful Headers 24
9 Goal Kicks 9
15 Dribble Attempts 15
73 Ball Safe 84
2 Hit Woodwork 1
2 Assists 1
10 Successful Dribbles 6
67 Successful Dribbles Percentage 40
5 Substitutions 5
1 Injuries 0
11 Goal Attempts 2

Attacking

111 Attacks 115
1 Big Chances Missed 0

Possession

79 Successful Passes Percentage 83
412 Passes 533
324 Successful Passes 443
68 Long Passes 59
10 Key Passes 7
28 Successful Long Passes 38
41 Successful Long Passes Percentage 64

Defensive

14 Interceptions 4
15 Tackles 14
0 Saves 3

Build-up

8 Total Crosses 43
2 Accurate Crosses 9

Discipline

13 Fouls 7

Lineup

Referee : Adam Herczeg

Starting XI ▼

1
Egil Selvik
Egil Selvik Goalkeeper
6.48
3
Saba Goglichidze
Saba Goglichidze Defender
6.67
6
Mattie Pollock
Mattie Pollock Defender
7.13
16
Marc Bola
Marc Bola Defender
7.54
25
James Abankwah
James Abankwah Defender
6.53
4
Kévin Keben
Kévin Keben
Defender90+1'
8
Giorgi Chakvetadze
Giorgi Chakvetadze Midfielder
7.62
27
Formose Mendy
Formose Mendy
Defender83'
6.58
10
Imrân Louza
Imrân Louza (C) Midfielder
7.58
17
Pierre Ekwah
Pierre Ekwah Midfielder
6.93
23
Nampalys Mendy
Nampalys Mendy
Midfielder71'
6.55
66
Nestory Irankunda
Nestory Irankunda Midfielder
7.27
20
Mamadou Doumbia
Mamadou Doumbia
Attacker72'
6.69
9
Luca Kjerrumgaard
Luca Kjerrumgaard Attacker
7.32
39
Edo Kayembe
Edo Kayembe Attacker
7.25
15
Edoardo Bove
Edoardo Bove
Midfielder83'
7.05
Referee : Adam Herczeg

Starting XI ▼

1
Arthur Okonkwo
Arthur Okonkwo Goalkeeper
6.58
2
Callum Doyle
Callum Doyle Defender
6.19
4
Max Cleworth
Max Cleworth Defender
6.94
5
Dominic Hyam
Dominic Hyam (C) Defender
6.82
14
George Thomason
George Thomason Midfielder
6.68
26
Zak Vyner
Zak Vyner Midfielder
7.04
16
Jay Rodríguez
Jay Rodríguez
Attacker88'
27
Lewis O'Brien
Lewis O'Brien Midfielder
6.62
47
Ryan Longman
Ryan Longman Midfielder
6.51
12
Issa Kaboré
Issa Kaboré
Defender64'
6.83
20
Ollie Rathbone
Ollie Rathbone Attacker
6.68
7
D. Keillor-Dunn
D. Keillor-Dunn
Midfielder64'
6.5
28
Sam Smith
Sam Smith Attacker
6.47
11
Bailey Cadamarteri
Bailey Cadamarteri
Attacker75'
6.49
33
Nathan Broadhead
Nathan Broadhead Attacker
6.48
10
Josh Windass
Josh Windass
Midfielder46'
6.6

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Edoardo Bove
2nd Yellowcard
90+5'
Event
Edoardo Bove
Left foot shot / 4th Goal
90+4'
Event
Kévin Keben → James Abankwah
10th Substitution
90+1'
88'
Event
Jay Rodríguez → Zak Vyner
9th Substitution
Event
Edoardo Bove → Edo Kayembe
7th Substitution
83'
Event
Formose Mendy → Giorgi Chakvetadze
8th Substitution
83'
Event
Giorgi Chakvetadze
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
81'
75'
Event
Bailey Cadamarteri → Sam Smith
6th Substitution
Event
Mamadou Doumbia → Nestory Irankunda
5th Substitution
72'
Event
Nampalys Mendy → Pierre Ekwah
4th Substitution
71'
64'
Event
D. Keillor-Dunn → Ollie Rathbone
2nd Substitution
64'
Event
Issa Kaboré → Ryan Longman
3rd Substitution
49'
Event
Max Cleworth
Header / 3rd Goal
46'
Event
Josh Windass → Nathan Broadhead
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Edo Kayembe
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
38'
Event
Marc Bola
Left foot shot / 1st Goal
18'

Match Commentary

90
Update Update
Lewis O'Brien from Wrexham was awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
90
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be six minutes of stoppage time.
90
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Watford: Kévin Keben comes on to replace James Abankwah.
90
Update Update
Opportunity gone begging. Jay Rodriguez from Wrexham attempted a header from the middle of the penalty area but failed to convert.
90
Attempt Attempt
Marc Bola from Watford strikes the crossbar with a left-footed shot taken from outside the penalty area.
90
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Watford leads Wrexham 3-1. Edoardo Bove scores for Watford with a left-footed shot from close range, finding the center of the net.
90
Attempt Attempt
Another offensive effort unfolds. Mamadou Doumbia from Watford takes a right-footed shot from a challenging angle on the right side, but it's expertly saved by goalkeeper Arthur Okonkwo, who is positioned centrally. The assist came from Luca Kjerrumgaard.
90
Attempt Attempt
Goal! Watford leads Wrexham 3-1. Edoardo Bove from Watford scores with a left-footed shot from close range, finding the center of the net.
90
Update Update
Nampalys Mendy from Watford committed a foul.
90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Edoardo Bove of Watford has been shown a yellow card for over-celebrating.
90
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Watford after Lewis O'Brien allowed the ball to go out.
90
Update Update
Josh Windass from Wrexham earned a free kick on the right side of the field.
90
Update Update
The second half has concluded with the final score: Watford 3, Wrexham 1.
90
Attempt Attempt
A shot has been deflected. Lewis O'Brien from Wrexham attempted a left-footed strike from outside the penalty area, but it was blocked. The assist came from Davis Keillor-Dunn, who delivered a well-placed through ball.
88
Update Update
Mamadou Doumbia from Watford committed a foul.
87
Update Update
Imrân Louza from Watford has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
87
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Wrexham: Jay Rodriguez comes on to replace Zak Vyner.
84
Update Update
Imrân Louza from Watford has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
83
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Watford: Formose Mendy replaces Giorgi Chakvetadze.
83
Update Update
The pause has ended. They are set to resume play.
81
Update Update
Issa Kaboré from Wrexham earned a free kick on the right flank.
81
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Giorgi Chakvetadze of Watford has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
81
Update Update
Match is currently paused due to an injury to Edo Kayembe from Watford.
81
Update Update
The pause has ended. They are set to resume play.
79
Update Update
Giorgi Chakvetadze from Watford committed a foul.
78
Update Update
Opportunity wasted. Bailey Cadamarteri of Wrexham attempted a header from the middle of the penalty area but sent it wide to the left. The cross was delivered by Issa Kaboré.
78
Corner Corner
Wrexham has been awarded a corner kick after Giorgi Chakvetadze allowed the ball to go out.
75
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Wrexham: Bailey Cadamarteri comes on to replace Sam Smith.
73
Update Update
Imrân Louza from Watford committed a foul.
73
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Wrexham: Bailey Cadamarteri comes on to replace Sam Smith.
72
Update Update
Davis Keillor-Dunn from Wrexham has earned a free kick in the defensive area.
71
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Watford: Mamadou Doumbia comes on to replace Nestory Irankunda.
70
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Watford: Nampalys Mendy comes on to replace Pierre Ekwah.
69
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to Wrexham after Saba Goglichidze allowed the ball to go out of play.
69
Attempt Attempt
The attempt on goal was thwarted. Sam Smith from Wrexham fired a right-footed shot from the right side of the penalty area, but it was blocked. The assist came from Zak Vyner, who delivered a well-placed through ball.
68
Update Update
Marc Bola commits a foul against Watford.
68
Update Update
Issa Kaboré from Wrexham was awarded a free kick on the right flank.
64
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Wrexham: Issa Kaboré comes on to replace Ryan Longman.
64
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Wrexham: Davis Keillor-Dunn comes on to replace Oliver Rathbone.
60
Update Update
Dominic Hyam from Wrexham was awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
60
Update Update
Luca Kjerrumgaard from Watford committed a foul.
59
Update Update
Mattie Pollock from Watford has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
59
Update Update
Sam Smith committed a foul against Wrexham.
59
Update Update
Mattie Pollock from Watford has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
57
Attempt Attempt
A fresh offensive effort unfolds. Pierre Ekwah from Watford takes a left-footed shot from the left side of the penalty area, but Arthur Okonkwo, the goalkeeper for Wrexham, makes a save right in the middle of the goal. The assist came from Giorgi Chakvetadze.
56
Update Update
Marc Bola from Watford was awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
51
Update Update
Sam Smith committed a foul against Wrexham.
51
Corner Corner
Goal! Watford 2, Wrexham 1. Max Cleworth scores for Wrexham with a header from within the six-yard box, directing the ball from the left side into the right corner. The assist comes from Oliver Rathbone, who delivered a cross following a corner kick.
49
Corner Corner
Wrexham has been awarded a corner after James Abankwah allowed the ball to go out of play.
49
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Wrexham has been awarded a corner kick after James Abankwah allowed the ball to go out of play.
48
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is denied. Oliver Rathbone from Wrexham fires a left-footed shot from the left side of the penalty area, but it's intercepted. The assist came from Zak Vyner.
47
Update Update
Opportunity wasted. Saba Goglichidze from Watford attempted a header from the center of the penalty area, but it sailed high and to the left. The assist came from Giorgi Chakvetadze, who delivered a cross.
46
Update Update
Lewis O'Brien committed a foul against Wrexham.
46
Update Update
Nestory Irankunda from Watford earned a free kick on the right side of the field.
45
Update Update
Mattie Pollock from Watford committed a foul.
45
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity! Nestory Irankunda from Watford took a right-footed shot from the right side of the penalty area, but it sailed over the crossbar. The assist came from Edo Kayembe after a quick counterattack.
45
Update Update
George Thomason from Wrexham was awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
45
Update Update
George Thomason from Wrexham earned a free kick in the defensive area.
45
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Watford after Zak Vyner allowed the ball to go out.
45
Update Update
The first half has concluded with Watford leading Wrexham 2-0.
45
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Wrexham: Josh Windass comes on to replace Nathan Broadhead.
45
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Wrexham: Josh Windass is coming on to replace Nathan Broadhead.
42
Update Update
The pause has ended. They are set to resume play.
40
Update Update
Match halted due to an injury to Imrân Louza from Watford.
38
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Watford leads Wrexham 2-0. Edo Kayembe scores with a left-footed strike from outside the penalty area.
34
Update Update
George Thomason committed a foul against Wrexham.
34
Update Update
Nestory Irankunda from Watford has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
33
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Wrexham after James Abankwah allowed the ball to go out.
29
Update Update
Nestory Irankunda from Watford committed a foul.
29
Update Update
George Thomason from Wrexham was awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
28
Attempt Attempt
A new offensive play unfolds as Luca Kjerrumgaard from Watford takes a left-footed shot from the middle of the penalty area, but Arthur Okonkwo, the Wrexham goalkeeper, makes a save right in the center of the goal.
27
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity squandered. Imrân Louza from Watford attempted a right-footed shot from the middle of the penalty area but failed to convert. The chance was set up by Nestory Irankunda during a quick counter-attack.
26
Update Update
Edo Kayembe from Watford committed a foul.
26
Update Update
Nathan Broadhead from Wrexham earned a free kick on the left side of the pitch.
20
Attempt Attempt
Goal! Watford takes the lead, 1-0 against Wrexham. Marc Bola scores with a left-footed shot from the left side of the penalty area, sending the ball straight into the center of the net. The assist comes from Giorgi Chakvetadze after a quick counterattack.
20
Update Update
Dominic Hyam from Wrexham was awarded a free kick on the right flank.
18
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Nathan Broadhead from Wrexham earned a free kick in the defensive area.
15
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity! James Abankwah from Watford takes a right-footed shot from the right side of the penalty area, but it sails over the goal. The assist came from Luca Kjerrumgaard.
15
Update Update
Opportunity wasted. Oliver Rathbone from Wrexham attempted a header from the right side of the penalty area, but it went wide.
15
Update Update
James Abankwah committed a foul against Watford.
12
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Watford after George Thomason allowed the ball to go out of play.
11
Update Update
Giorgi Chakvetadze from Watford strikes the crossbar with a right-footed attempt from the left side of the penalty area, assisted by Luca Kjerrumgaard.
9
Update Update
Lewis O'Brien committed a foul against Wrexham.
9
Update Update
Pierre Ekwah from Watford earned a free kick on the right side of the field.
8
Update Update
Sam Smith committed a foul against Wrexham.
8
Update Update
Saba Goglichidze from Watford has earned a free kick in the defensive area.
6
Update Update
Imrân Louza from Watford committed a foul.
6
Update Update
Nathan Broadhead from Wrexham was awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
4
Update Update
Opportunity squandered. Luca Kjerrumgaard from Watford attempted a header from close range but failed to convert.
1
Update Update
Mattie Pollock from Watford committed a foul.
1
Update Update
Sam Smith from Wrexham has been awarded a free kick in an offensive position.

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Watford exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

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