Vitória Guimarães vs Casa Pia Prediction, Preview and Stats

Portugal flag 2025/2026 Liga Portugal, Portugal
Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques Mon, 11 May - 7:15 PM
Liga Portugal
Vitória Guimarães VSC
Versus
Casa Pia CPAC
KICKOFF : Mon, 11 May - 7:15 PM
Round 33 Regular Season

CONTEXT

Vitória Guimarães host Casa Pia at Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques in a crucial Liga Portugal regular season clash. The hosts sit comfortably in 7th place, boasting a power score of 72.27 compared to the visitors' 61.93, giving them a clear 10.3-point advantage. Form favours Vitória heavily, with a score of 20.06 against Casa Pia's meagre 6.28, highlighting their recent momentum. Casa Pia, rooted in 16th, face an uphill battle away from home against a side energised by home support. Structural superiority and league standing position Vitória as favourites in this matchup. While set-piece and efficiency metrics remain unavailable, the power and form gaps suggest a controlled performance from the hosts. Expect Vitória to leverage their edge in open play and transitions to secure vital points.

TL;DR

  • Structural: Vitória Guimarães hold a 10.3-point power advantage over Casa Pia with scores of 72.27 to 61.93.
  • Form: Vitória Guimarães' form score stands at 20.06, far superior to Casa Pia's 6.28.
  • Squad: Vitória Guimarães rank 7th in the league, while Casa Pia sit 16th.
  • Efficiency: Efficiency data is unavailable for this fixture.
  • Transition: No specific transition metrics provided in available data.
  • Set pieces: Set-piece data unavailable due to lack of xG information.
  • xVariable: xG-related variables not available for either team.
  • Market: Vitória Guimarães 55.2% (Δ+0%) | Draw 25% (Δ+0%) | Casa Pia 19.8% (Δ+0%).
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25 vs Team A
Feb 1 vs Team B
Feb 8 vs Team C
Vitória Guimarães G. Moreira Lameiras
G. Moreira Lameiras
VS
Casa Pia Á. Pacheco
Á. Pacheco
1.33
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0.81
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Sporting CP Rank: 88 L
Rio Ave Rank: 64 W
Gil Vicente Rank: 69 W
AVS Rank: 58 D
Tondela Rank: 61 W
Benfica Rank: 88 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Tondela Rank: 60 L
Gil Vicente Rank: 69 L
Sporting Braga Rank: 81 L
Santa Clara Rank: 64 D
Alverca Rank: 67 L
Benfica Rank: 88 D
1
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
1 - 4 - 2
2
No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Vitória Guimarães
55.22%
Draw
24.97%
Away Casa Pia
19.81%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
72.27
61.93
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Vitória Guimarães
Casa Pia
Power Score
72.27
61.93
League Position
7
16
Global Rank
161
430

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Vitória Guimarães — Opponent-weighted form score
Casa Pia — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Vitória Guimarães Casa Pia

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 7 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Vitória Guimarães VSC Home
7 matches
Casa Pia CPAC Away
Match Record
1
Wins
2
4
Draws
4
2
Losses
1
Goals
2
Goals Scored
4
4
Goals Conceded
2
-2
Goal Difference
+2

Data last updated: 2026-05-07T00:52:13+00:00

STARTING XI - EXPECTED

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 3-4-3
Pitch
C. da Silva
27 C. da Silva
T. Strata
66 T. Strata
O. Rivas Viondi
4 O. Rivas Viondi
M. Gomes Ferreira Magalhães
2 M. Gomes Ferreira Magalhães
João Mendes
13 João Mendes
G. Teixeira Nogueira
30 G. Teixeira Nogueira
B. Mambuene Mukendi
16 B. Mambuene Mukendi
J. Costa Nogueira
88 J. Costa Nogueira
F. Amorim Silva
20 F. Amorim Silva
N. Jose Saviolo
48 N. Jose Saviolo
G. da Silva Cunha
11 G. da Silva Cunha
P. Sequeira Mejías
1 P. Sequeira Mejías
David Sousa
43 David Sousa
A. Geraldes de Barros
18 A. Geraldes de Barros
J. Goulart Silva
4 J. Goulart Silva
A. Conté
5 A. Conté
I. Mohamed
24 I. Mohamed
R. Brito
8 R. Brito
G. Larrazabal Goikoetxea
72 G. Larrazabal Goikoetxea
J. Freitas Silva Marques
11 J. Freitas Silva Marques
D. Rocha Livramento do Rosario
10 D. Rocha Livramento do Rosario
K. Prieto Machado
19 K. Prieto Machado

General Information

Date & Time :
May 11, 2026, 07:15 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Liga Portugal, Portugal · Round 33 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques
Capacity :
30008
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair

Expected Lineup

Starting XI ▼

27
Charles
Charles Goalkeeper
6.77
11
Gustavo Silva
Gustavo Silva Centre Forward
6.88
4
Óscar Rivas
Óscar Rivas Right Back
6.95
88
Miguel Nogueira
Miguel Nogueira Right Wing
6.73
2
Maga
Maga Left Back
6.7
13
João Mendes
João Mendes Left Back
6.75
16
Beni Mukendi
Beni Mukendi Defensive Midfield
6.83
20
Samu
Samu Attacking Midfield
6.94
30
Gonçalo Nogueira
Gonçalo Nogueira Defensive Midfield
6.83
48
Noah Jose Saviolo
Noah Jose Saviolo Left Wing
6.7
66
Tony Strata
Tony Strata Right Back
6.68

Starting XI ▼

1
Patrick Sequeira
Patrick Sequeira Goalkeeper
6.66
5
Abdu Conté
Abdu Conté Midfielder
6.72
72
Gaizka Larrazabal
Gaizka Larrazabal Midfielder
6.77
10
Dailon Livramento
Dailon Livramento Centre Forward
6.58
11
João Marques
João Marques Attacker
6.73
19
Kevin Prieto
Kevin Prieto Attacker
6.59
4
João Goulart
João Goulart Right Back
6.61
8
Rafael Brito
Rafael Brito Central Midfield
6.68
18
André Geraldes
André Geraldes Centre Back
6.49
24
Iyad Mohamed
Iyad Mohamed Central Midfield
6.57
43
David Sousa
David Sousa Left Back
6.74

CONCLUSION

Vitória Guimarães enter this home fixture with every advantage, from superior power ratings and form to a higher league position. Casa Pia's struggles in 16th place and poor recent showings make them underdogs. The hosts' structural edge should translate into dominance, particularly in transitions and open play. Without detailed set-piece or efficiency insights, the focus remains on Vitória's overall quality to deliver a convincing win and climb the table. A solid performance here keeps their momentum alive.

Vitória Guimarães vs Casa Pia preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

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