Valencia vs Rayo Vallecano Prediction, Preview and Stats

Spain flag 2025/2026 La Liga, Spain
Estadio de Mestalla Thu, 14 May - 5:00 PM
La Liga
Valencia VAL
Versus
Rayo Vallecano RAY
KICKOFF : Thu, 14 May - 5:00 PM
Round 36 Regular Season

CONTEXT

Valencia welcomes Rayo Vallecano to Estadio de Mestalla for a pivotal La Liga regular season clash in the 2025/2026 campaign. Sitting 12th in the standings, the hosts face 11th-placed visitors in a mid-table showdown where every point counts toward climbing the ladder. Rayo Vallecano arrives as the marginally stronger outfit, boasting a power score of 78.5 against Valencia's 77.34, translating to a 1.2-point edge. Recent form tilts decisively toward the away side with a robust 24.17 rating compared to Valencia's modest 10.67, suggesting momentum lies with Rayo. Home support at Mestalla could ignite Valencia's performance, yet Rayo's superior metrics pose a stern test. Limited data on set pieces reflects low confidence levels and proxy usage for both squads, leaving tactical nuances unclear. No recent outings detailed for either team. This encounter promises intensity as both seek vital wins to boost their campaigns.

TL;DR

  • Structural: Rayo Vallecano holds a slight structural edge with a 78.5 power score over Valencia's 77.34 and a 1.2-point advantage.
  • Form: Rayo Vallecano demonstrates stronger form at 24.17 versus Valencia's 10.67.
  • Squad: Valencia occupies 12th and Rayo Vallecano 11th in domestic league positions.
  • Efficiency: Efficiency data remains unavailable for this matchup.
  • Transition: Transition play details are not specified in available metrics.
  • Set pieces: Set piece stats show low confidence with proxies used for both Valencia and Rayo Vallecano.
  • xVariable: xG data unavailable, impacting set piece analysis for both teams.
  • Market: Baseline split: Valencia 42.4% (Δ+0%) | Draw 27.5% (Δ+0%) | Rayo Vallecano 30.1% (Δ+0%).
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25 vs Team A
Feb 1 vs Team B
Feb 8 vs Team C
Valencia C. Corberán Vallet
C. Corberán Vallet
VS
Rayo Vallecano I. Pérez Soto
I. Pérez Soto
1.3
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.22
0.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Athletic Club Rank: 79 D
Atlético Madrid Rank: 89 L
Girona Rank: 76 W
Mallorca Rank: 76 D
Elche Rank: 75 L
Celta de Vigo Rank: 80 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Girona Rank: 75 D
Getafe Rank: 77 W
Real Sociedad Rank: 80 D
Espanyol Rank: 73 W
Mallorca Rank: 77 L
Elche Rank: 75 W
8
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
8 - 10 - 5
5
No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Valencia
42.43%
Draw
27.46%
Away Rayo Vallecano
30.11%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
77.34
78.5
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Valencia
Rayo Vallecano
Power Score
77.34
78.5
League Position
12
11
Global Rank
88
75

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Valencia — Opponent-weighted form score
Rayo Vallecano — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Valencia Rayo Vallecano

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 23 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Valencia VAL Home
23 matches
Rayo Vallecano RAY Away
Match Record
8
Wins
5
10
Draws
10
5
Losses
8
Goals
33
Goals Scored
22
22
Goals Conceded
33
+11
Goal Difference
-11

Data last updated: 2026-05-07T00:53:46+00:00

General Information

Date & Time :
May 14, 2026, 05:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 La Liga, Spain · Round 36 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Estadio de Mestalla
Capacity :
49430
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair

Squad

Squad ▼

1
Stole Dimitrievski
Stole Dimitrievski Goalkeeper
13
Cristian Rivero Sabater
Cristian Rivero Sabater Goalkeeper
25
Julen Agirrezabala
Julen Agirrezabala Goalkeeper
—
Dimitri Foulquier
Dimitri Foulquier Defender
—
Mouctar Diakhaby
Mouctar Diakhaby Defender
14
José Luis Gayá Peña
José Luis Gayá Peña Defender
24
Eray Ervin Cömert
Eray Ervin Cömert Defender
20
Renzo Saravia
Renzo Saravia Defender
4
Unai Núñez Gestoso
Unai Núñez Gestoso Defender
12
Thierry Rendall Correia
Thierry Rendall Correia Defender
3
José Manuel Arias Copete
José Manuel Arias Copete Defender
21
Jesus Vazquez Alcalde
Jesus Vazquez Alcalde Defender
5
César Tárrega Requeni
César Tárrega Requeni Defender
22
Baptiste Santamaría
Baptiste Santamaría Midfielder
10
Domingos André Ribeiro Almeida
Domingos André Ribeiro Almeida Midfielder
18
José Luis García Vayá
José Luis García Vayá Midfielder
23
Filip Ugrinic
Filip Ugrinic Midfielder
2
Guido Rodríguez
Guido Rodríguez Midfielder
8
Javier Guerra Moreno
Javier Guerra Moreno Midfielder
7
Arnaut Danjuma Groeneveld
Arnaut Danjuma Groeneveld Attacker
6
Umar Sadiq Mesbah
Umar Sadiq Mesbah Attacker
19
Daniel Raba Antolí
Daniel Raba Antolí Attacker
11
Luis Jesús Rioja González
Luis Jesús Rioja González Attacker
9
Hugo Duro Perales
Hugo Duro Perales Attacker
17
Largie Ramazani
Largie Ramazani Attacker
15
Lucas Beltrán
Lucas Beltrán Attacker
16
Diego López Noguerol
Diego López Noguerol Attacker

Squad ▼

13
Augusto Martín Batalla Barga
Augusto Martín Batalla Barga Goalkeeper
1
Daniel Cárdenas Lindez
Daniel Cárdenas Lindez Goalkeeper
16
Abdul Mumin
Abdul Mumin Defender
24
Florian Lejeune
Florian Lejeune Defender
20
Iván Balliu Campeny
Iván Balliu Campeny Defender
5
Luiz Felipe Ramos Marchi
Luiz Felipe Ramos Marchi Defender
22
Luis Alfonso Espino García
Luis Alfonso Espino García Defender
2
Andrei Florin Ratiu
Andrei Florin Ratiu Defender
3
Josep María Chavarría Pérez
Josep María Chavarría Pérez Defender
33
Jozhua Vertrouwd
Jozhua Vertrouwd Defender
32
Nobel Mendy
Nobel Mendy Defender
8
Óscar Guido Trejo
Óscar Guido Trejo Midfielder
17
Unai López Cabrera
Unai López Cabrera Midfielder
15
Gerard Gumbau Garriga
Gerard Gumbau Garriga Midfielder
4
Pedro Díaz Fanjul
Pedro Díaz Fanjul Midfielder
23
Óscar Valentín Martín Luengo
Óscar Valentín Martín Luengo Midfielder
6
Pathé Ciss
Pathé Ciss Midfielder
11
Randy Ntekja
Randy Ntekja Midfielder
28
Samuel Becerra Gómez
Samuel Becerra Gómez Midfielder
18
Álvaro García Rivera
Álvaro García Rivera Attacker
7
Isaac Palazón Camacho
Isaac Palazón Camacho Attacker
19
Jorge De Frutos Sebastián
Jorge De Frutos Sebastián Attacker
9
Alexandre Zurawski
Alexandre Zurawski Attacker
10
Sergio Camello Pérez
Sergio Camello Pérez Attacker
21
Francisco Perez Martinez
Francisco Perez Martinez Attacker
12
Ilias Akhomach Chakkour
Ilias Akhomach Chakkour Attacker
14
Carlos Martín Domínguez
Carlos Martín Domínguez Attacker

CONCLUSION

Overall, the structural indicators point toward Rayo Vallecano holding the stronger pre-match profile. Power rankings give Rayo Vallecano a 1.2-point edge. External projection is Valencia 42.4%, draw 27.5%, and Rayo Vallecano 30.1%. That projection profile diverges from the structural signals, so execution is likely to decide the result. The balance of play should hinge on execution in transitions and set-piece phases.

Valencia vs Rayo Vallecano preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

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