Villarreal vs Real Sociedad Prediction, Preview and Stats
2025/2026 La Liga, Spain
La Liga
Real Sociedad
RSO
STANDINGS
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
CONTEXT
The match between Villarreal and Real Sociedad has finished with a full-time score of 0-1. This result represents a significant deviation from pre-match expectations, heavily favoring the away side. Villarreal entered as the stronger team with a 48.3% implied win probability, while Real Sociedad held only a 25.6% chance and the draw stood at 26.1%. Consequently, the final outcome did not align with the pre-match market. The underlying statistics showcase a match that completely defied the expected goals. Villarreal generated a massive 3.03 xG despite holding only 35% possession, yet they failed to register a goal. Conversely, Real Sociedad dominated the ball with 65% possession and capitalized on a meager 0.8 away xG to secure the victory. As a result, the outcome was entirely inconsistent with the xG data, punishing the home side's lack of clinical finishing. Despite the surprising final scoreline, the efficiency shift was recorded as in line with expectations. The match was decided purely on open play and tactical execution, without
TL;DR
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Structural deviation: Real Sociedad showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
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Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
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xG alignment: The final outcome was contrary to expected goal differential.
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Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
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xG expectations: Diverging from xG expectations (Classify).
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Event impact: No major event distortion.
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Red card distortion: None.
Quality vs Volume
Open Play vs Set Play
Expected Points
| Team | xPts |
|---|---|
| Home | 1.8 |
| Away | 1.2 |
Win Probabilities
Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Villarreal
Real Sociedad
Team Power Ranking
i
83.93
81.52
Villarreal
Real Sociedad
Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted
Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.
Heatmaps Ball coordinates
Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.
Villarreal
Real Sociedad
Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted
How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage
Villarreal
⚠ Proxy
Attacking Efficiency
Defensive Efficiency
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence
Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.
Villarreal
Villarreal
Real Sociedad
Villarreal
Real Sociedad
Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons
Summary of 39 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.
Match Record
Goals
Expected Goals
Data last updated: 2026-03-27T12:21:18+00:00
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General Information
Next Match
Villarreal
vs
Girona
League: La Liga
Kickoff: Mon, 6 Apr - 7:00 PM
Venue: Away
Real Sociedad
vs
Levante
League: La Liga
Kickoff: Sat, 4 Apr - 12:00 PM
Venue: Home
Statistics
Top Statistics
Match Overview
Attacking
Possession
Defensive
Build-up
Discipline
Lineup
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Match Commentary