Venezia vs Juve Stabia Prediction, Preview and Stats

Italy flag 2025/2026 Serie B, Italy
Stadio Pierluigi Penzo Mon, 6 Apr - 1:00 PM
Serie B
Venezia VEN
3 Winner 1
Juve Stabia JUV
Full Time Mon, 6 Apr 1:00 PM
Round 33 Regular Season
Andrea Giorgini - 39' (Own Goal)
Andrea Adorante - 45+3', 74'
Goal
|
Goal
Lorenzo Carissoni - 45'

CONTEXT

The match between Venezia and Juve Stabia has finished, with Venezia securing a comfortable 3-1 victory. The home side established an early advantage, leading 2-1 at halftime before adding a final goal in the second half to seal the result. This outcome was entirely aligned with the pre-match market, which heavily favored the stronger Venezia side at a 66% win probability, leaving Juve Stabia with just a 12.1% chance and a 21.9% likelihood of a draw. Despite the predictable winner, Venezia still displayed a significant performance deviation to assert their dominance over the visitors. Venezia dictated the tempo throughout the contest, commanding an overwhelming 69% of the possession compared to Juve Stabia's 31%. While expected goals (xG) data was not available to further evaluate statistical alignment, the match's overall efficiency shift remained firmly in line with baseline expectations. Additionally, the fixture was played cleanly with zero red cards issued to either side, ensuring that the tactical balance and the expected flow of the game were never disrupted by disciplinary issues.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Venezia showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
A. Poli
A. Poli
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 23.11
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.72
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.37
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.28
M. Perri
M. Perri
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 23.11
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.72
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.37
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.28
A. Cavallina
A. Cavallina
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 23.11
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.72
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.37
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.28
M. Regattieri
M. Regattieri
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 23.11
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.72
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.37
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.28
Venezia G. Stroppa
G. Stroppa
VS
Juve Stabia I. Abate
I. Abate
2.24
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.4
2 i
Last 6 Opponents
Monza Rank: 65 D
Calcio Padova Rank: 49 W
Sampdoria Rank: 51 D
Reggiana Rank: 46 W
Avellino Rank: 51 W
Südtirol Rank: 55 D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Spezia Rank: 53 W
Palermo Rank: 63 D
Carrarese Rank: 52 D
Mantova Rank: 52 L
Sampdoria Rank: 52 D
Avellino Rank: 51 D
1
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
1 - 1 - 1
1

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Venezia
65.98%
Draw
21.92%
Away Juve Stabia
12.1%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
62.63
55.37
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Venezia
Juve Stabia
Power Score
62.63
55.37
League Position
1
7
Global Rank
194
609

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Venezia — Opponent-weighted form score
Juve Stabia — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Venezia Juve Stabia

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Venezia

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Juve Stabia

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Venezia ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Juve Stabia
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
31.16
42.42
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
42.42
31.16
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Venezia -1.12 Efficiency Index
vs
Juve Stabia +1.12 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Venezia
Juve Stabia
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Venezia ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Juve Stabia
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Venezia Juve Stabia
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Venezia Juve Stabia
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Venezia
Juve Stabia
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Venezia
vs
Juve Stabia
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Venezia Juve Stabia
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Venezia 0.38
Juve Stabia 0.52
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Venezia Juve Stabia
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Venezia 0.04
Juve Stabia 0.06
Venezia
Juve Stabia
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 3 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Venezia VEN Home
3 matches
Juve Stabia JUV Away
Match Record
1
Wins
1
1
Draws
1
1
Losses
1
Goals
1
Goals Scored
2
2
Goals Conceded
1
-1
Goal Difference
+1
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-07T00:02:19+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-5-2
Match Formation 5-4-1
Pitch
F. Stankovic
Serbia
1 F. Stankovic
J. Schingtienne
Belgium
3 J. Schingtienne
M. Svoboda
Austria
30 M. Svoboda
M. Sverko
Croatia
33 M. Sverko
A. Hainaut
France
18 A. Hainaut
E. Pérez Muñoz
Substitution
Spain
71 E. Pérez Muñoz
G. Busio
United States
6 G. Busio
I. Doumbia
Substitution
Italy
8 I. Doumbia
S. Sagrado
Substitution
Belgium
20 S. Sagrado
J. Zamora
Substitution
Ecuador
10 J. Zamora
A. Adorante
Substitution
Italy
9 A. Adorante
A. Confente
Italy
1 A. Confente
A. Cacciamani
Substitution
77 A. Cacciamani
M. Bellich
Substitution
Italy
6 M. Bellich
A. Giorgini
Substitution
Italy
33 A. Giorgini
S. Diakite
France
46 S. Diakite
M. Ricciardi
Substitution
Italy
2 M. Ricciardi
L. Carissoni
Italy
24 L. Carissoni
O. Correia
France
29 O. Correia
N. Mosti
Italy
98 N. Mosti
R. Burnete
Romania
7 R. Burnete
A. Okoro
Substitution
Nigeria
90 A. Okoro

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 06, 2026, 01:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Serie B, Italy · Round 33 · Regular Season
Stadium
Stadio Pierluigi Penzo
Capacity
11150
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Alberto Poli
Mario Perri
Alex Cavallina
Mattia Regattieri

Statistics

Possession
VEN
62%
JUV
38%

Top Statistics

3 Goals 1
6 Big Chances Created 2
13 Shots 10
50 Dangerous attacks 23
69 Possession 31
5 Corners 4
13 Free kicks 22
3 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

10 Dribble Attempts 9
30 Successful Dribbles Percentage 44
9 Throwins 22
9 Goal Kicks 10
3 Successful Dribbles 4
61 Ball Safe 63
12 Goal Attempts 10
5 Substitutions 5
1 Penalties 0
0 Injuries 2
1 Assists 0

Attacking

83 Attacks 61
4 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

86 Successful Passes Percentage 68
413 Successful Passes 146
481 Passes 215
41 Long Passes 46
12 Key Passes 9
12 Successful Long Passes 14
29 Successful Long Passes Percentage 30

Defensive

42 Duels Won 55
6 Interceptions 4
11 Tackles 14
3 Saves 8

Build-up

19 Total Crosses 12
5 Accurate Crosses 5

Discipline

22 Fouls 14
0 Offsides 4

Lineup

Referee : Mario Perri

Starting XI ▼

1
Filip Stanković
Filip Stanković Goalkeeper
3
Joël Schingtienne
Joël Schingtienne Defender
30
Michael Svoboda
Michael Svoboda Defender
33
Marin Šverko
Marin Šverko Defender
6
Gianluca Busio
Gianluca Busio Midfielder
8
Issa Doumbia
Issa Doumbia Midfielder
28
Matteo Dagasso
Matteo Dagasso
Midfielder76'
18
Antoine Hainaut
Antoine Hainaut Midfielder
20
Richie Sagrado
Richie Sagrado Midfielder
19
Bjarki Bjarkason
Bjarki Bjarkason
Midfielder88'
71
Kike Pérez
Kike Pérez Midfielder
37
Emil Bohinen
Emil Bohinen
Midfielder88'
9
Andrea Adorante
Andrea Adorante Attacker
2
80
Antonio Casas
Antonio Casas
Attacker76'
10
John Yeboah
John Yeboah Attacker
21
Mattia Compagnon
Mattia Compagnon
Midfielder90+1'
Referee : Mario Perri

Starting XI ▼

1
Alessandro Confente
Alessandro Confente Goalkeeper
2
Manuel Ricciardi
Manuel Ricciardi Defender
76
Mattia Mannini
Mattia Mannini
Defender85'
6
Marco Bellich
Marco Bellich Defender
14
Christian Dalle Mura
Christian Dalle Mura
Defender84'
33
Andrea Giorgini
Andrea Giorgini Defender
13
Marco Varnier
Marco Varnier
Defender57'
46
Salim Diakité
Salim Diakité Defender
77
Alessio Cacciamani
Alessio Cacciamani Defender
70
Matheus Luz Priveato Dos Santos
Matheus Luz Priveato Dos Santos
Attacker70'
7
Rareș Burnete
Rareș Burnete Midfielder
24
Lorenzo Carissoni
Lorenzo Carissoni Midfielder
29
Omar Correia
Omar Correia Midfielder
98
Nicola Mosti
Nicola Mosti Midfielder
90
Alvin Okoro
Alvin Okoro Attacker
9
Alessandro Gabrielloni
Alessandro Gabrielloni
Attacker70'

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Mattia Compagnon → John Yeboah
10th Substitution
90+1'
Event
Emil Bohinen → Kike Pérez
9th Substitution
88'
Event
Bjarki Bjarkason → Richie Sagrado
8th Substitution
88'
85'
Event
Mattia Mannini → Manuel Ricciardi
7th Substitution
84'
Event
Christian Dalle Mura → Marco Bellich
6th Substitution
Event
Richie Sagrado
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
79'
Event
Matteo Dagasso → Issa Doumbia
5th Substitution
76'
Event
Antonio Casas → Andrea Adorante
4th Substitution
76'
Event
Andrea Adorante
Header / 3rd Goal
74'
Event
Michael Svoboda
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
71'
Event
Gianluca Busio
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
70'
70'
Event
Alessandro Gabrielloni → Alvin Okoro
2nd Substitution
70'
Event
Matheus Luz Priveato Dos Santos → Alessio Cacciamani
3rd Substitution
57'
Event
Marco Varnier → Andrea Giorgini
1st Substitution
Event
Andrea Adorante
GoalkeeperSave
53'
1ST-HALF
Event
Andrea Adorante
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
45+3'
45+3'
Event
Marco Bellich
Argument / 2nd Yellowcard
45'
Event
Lorenzo Carissoni
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
Event
Andrea Giorgini
Left foot shot / 1st Own Goal
39'
36'
Event
Andrea Giorgini
Foul / 1st Yellowcard

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Venezia exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

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