Udinese vs Parma Prediction, Preview and Stats

Italy flag 2025/2026 Serie A, Italy
Dacia Arena Sat, 18 Apr - 1:00 PM
Serie A
Udinese UDI
Versus
Parma PRM
KICKOFF : Sat, 18 Apr - 1:00 PM
Round 33 Regular Season

CONTEXT

Udinese host Parma at the Dacia Arena in what promises to be an intriguing Serie A encounter in the 2025/2026 season. Sitting comfortably in 10th place, the home team holds a notable power advantage with a score of 27.34 against Parma's 18.65, resulting in an 8.7 point edge. This stronger positioning is backed by a solid recent run, as Udinese have collected three wins and two draws from their last six matches. Their latest success came away against AC Milan, providing a significant boost. Parma, meanwhile, occupy 14th spot and have found wins hard to come by, with no victories in six games but four draws including their most recent against Napoli at home. The visitors will need to improve their away form significantly if they are to take anything from this fixture. Udinese will look to use their home crowd and superior metrics to control proceedings from the first whistle.

TL;DR

  • Structural: Home team in 10th holds 8.7 power advantage over 14th-placed visitors in mid-table clash.
  • Form: Udinese strong with W3 D2 L1 from 6, including win at AC Milan. Parma winless at W0 D4 L2, drew with Napoli.
  • Squad: Udinese squad benefiting from recent confidence boost. Parma group showing resilience but lacking cutting edge.
  • Efficiency: Udinese demonstrate superior efficiency in converting opportunities based on current metrics.
  • Transition: Expect Udinese to dominate transitions given their higher form score and Parma's vulnerabilities.
  • Set pieces: Limited data available with low confidence and proxy metrics in use for both sides.
  • xVariable: xVariable leans towards Udinese creating more impactful chances throughout the contest.
  • Market: Udinese 43.8% (Δ+0%) | Draw 30.9% (Δ+0%) | Parma 25.3% (Δ+0%).
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25 vs Team A
Feb 1 vs Team B
Feb 8 vs Team C
Udinese K. Runjaic
K. Runjaic
VS
Parma C. Antón Cuesta
C. Antón Cuesta
1.35
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.19
1.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
AC Milan Rank: W
Como Rank: D
Genoa Rank: W
Juventus Rank: L
Atalanta Rank: D
Fiorentina Rank: W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Napoli Rank: D
Lazio Rank: D
Cremonese Rank: L
Torino Rank: L
Fiorentina Rank: D
Cagliari Rank: D
12
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
12 - 6 - 9
9
No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Udinese
43.76%
Draw
30.92%
Away Parma
25.32%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
27.34
18.65
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Udinese
Parma
Power Score
27.34
18.65
League Position
10
14
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Udinese — Opponent-weighted form score
Parma — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Udinese Parma

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 27 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Udinese UDI Home
27 matches
Parma PRM Away
Match Record
12
Wins
9
6
Draws
6
9
Losses
12
Goals
45
Goals Scored
38
38
Goals Conceded
45
+7
Goal Difference
-7
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-16T00:06:56+00:00

STARTING XI

Pitch
M. Okoye
Nigeria
40 M. Okoye
T. Kristensen
Denmark
31 T. Kristensen
C. Kabasele
Belgium
27 C. Kabasele
O. Solet Bomawoko
France
28 O. Solet Bomawoko
K. Ehizibue
Netherlands
19 K. Ehizibue
J. Ekkelenkamp
Netherlands
32 J. Ekkelenkamp
J. Karlström
Sweden
8 J. Karlström
A. Atta
France
14 A. Atta
H. Kamara
Gambia
11 H. Kamara
A. Buksa
Poland
18 A. Buksa
N. Zaniolo
Italy
10 N. Zaniolo
Z. Suzuki
Japan
31 Z. Suzuki
L. Valenti
Argentina
5 L. Valenti
A. Circati
Australia
39 A. Circati
M. Troilo
Argentina
37 M. Troilo
E. Valeri
Italy
14 E. Valeri
M. Keita
Belgium
16 M. Keita
H. Nicolussi Caviglia
Italy
41 H. Nicolussi Caviglia
A. Bernabe Garcia
Spain
10 A. Bernabe Garcia
E. Del Prato
Italy
15 E. Del Prato
G. Strefezza Rebelato
Brazil
7 G. Strefezza Rebelato
N. Elphege
France
23 N. Elphege

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 18, 2026, 01:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Serie A, Italy · Round 33 · Regular Season
Stadium
Dacia Arena
Capacity
25132
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Davide Di Marco
Simone Biffi
Andrea Rapuano
Giuseppe Perrotti

Lineup

Referee : Davide Di Marco

Starting XI ▼

40
Maduka Okoye
Maduka Okoye Goalkeeper
6.79
27
Christian Kabasele
Christian Kabasele Defender
6.87
28
Oumar Solet
Oumar Solet Defender
7.06
31
Thomas Kristensen
Thomas Kristensen Defender
6.9
8
Jesper Karlström
Jesper Karlström Midfielder
6.66
11
Hassane Kamara
Hassane Kamara Midfielder
6.74
14
Arthur Atta
Arthur Atta Midfielder
6.92
19
Kingsley Ehizibue
Kingsley Ehizibue Midfielder
6.48
32
Jurgen Ekkelenkamp
Jurgen Ekkelenkamp Midfielder
6.92
10
Nicolò Zaniolo
Nicolò Zaniolo Attacker
6.93
18
Adam Buksa
Adam Buksa Attacker
6.64
Referee : Davide Di Marco

Starting XI ▼

31
Zion Suzuki
Zion Suzuki Goalkeeper
6.86
5
Lautaro Valenti
Lautaro Valenti Defender
6.85
37
Mariano Troilo
Mariano Troilo Defender
6.8
39
Alessandro Circati
Alessandro Circati Defender
6.88
10
Adrián Bernabé
Adrián Bernabé Midfielder
7.1
14
Emanuele Valeri
Emanuele Valeri Midfielder
6.82
15
Enrico Delprato
Enrico Delprato Midfielder
6.7
16
Mandela Keita
Mandela Keita Midfielder
6.82
41
Hans Nicolussi Caviglia
Hans Nicolussi Caviglia Midfielder
6.65
7
Gabriel Strefezza
Gabriel Strefezza Attacker
7.02
23
Nesta Elphege
Nesta Elphege Attacker
6.74

CONCLUSION

Looking ahead, Udinese appear set to extend their positive form with a victory over Parma. The combination of better league standing, recent results, and overall power score makes them clear favorites in this matchup. Parma's defensive displays have earned them several points from draws, yet the lack of attacking output remains a concern. At the Dacia Arena, the home side should find spaces to exploit, particularly in quick transitions following defensive recoveries. While set piece data is currently limited, general play suggests Udinese hold the upper hand across most areas. A focused performance could see them secure a win by a narrow margin, helping to push them further up the table while Parma continue their search for consistency.

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