Tromsø vs Rosenborg Prediction, Preview and Stats

Norway flag 2026 Eliteserien, Norway
Alfheim Stadion Mon, 6 Apr - 5:15 PM
Eliteserien
Tromsø Tromsø
2 Winner 0
Rosenborg Rosenborg
Full Time Mon, 6 Apr 5:15 PM
Round 3 Regular Season
Jens Hjertø-Dahl - 27'
Heine Åsen Larsen - 48'
Goal
|

CONTEXT

The match between Tromsø and Rosenborg has concluded, with Tromsø securing a comfortable 2-0 victory at full-time. The home side took control in the first half, heading into the break with a 1-0 lead before adding a second goal to seal the win. This outcome directly aligned with the pre-match market, which favored Tromsø with a commanding 59.5% win probability. In contrast, there was a 23.9% chance of a draw and only a 16.6% likelihood of a Rosenborg away upset. While Tromsø winning was the expected result, the 2-0 scoreline still represented a significant deviation for the home team, outperforming their pre-match baseline probability by 40.5%. On the pitch, Tromsø edged the possession battle, controlling the ball for 53% of the match compared to Rosenborg's 47%. Expected goals (xG) data was unavailable for this fixture, so alignment with xG cannot be definitively stated. However, Tromsø's overall performance and efficiency shift were completely in line with expectations. The contest also proceeded without any red cards, ensuring no major disciplinary events disrupted the expected flow of the game as the stronger team claimed all three points.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Tromsø showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
O. Nilsen
O. Nilsen
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 13.72
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 1.97
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.06
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.19
Tromsø J. Vik
J. Vik
VS
Rosenborg A. Johansson
A. Johansson
2.25
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0.89
2.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Brann Rank: 68 W
Fredrikstad Rank: 62 W
Kristiansund Rank: 55 W
Rosenborg Rank: 61 W
Sandefjord Rank: 60 L
Sarpsborg 08 Rank: 61 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1 i
Last 6 Opponents
Vålerenga Rank: 61 L
Molde Rank: 64 L
Strømsgodset Rank: 49 W
Tromsø Rank: 68 L
Vålerenga Rank: 61 W
Molde Rank: 63 L
12
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
12 - 7 - 19
19

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Tromsø
59.52%
Draw
23.88%
Away Rosenborg
16.6%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
68.3
60.62
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Tromsø
Rosenborg
Power Score
68.3
60.62
League Position
1
16
Global Rank
228
446

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Tromsø — Opponent-weighted form score
Rosenborg — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Tromsø Rosenborg

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Tromsø

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Rosenborg

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Tromsø ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Rosenborg
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
39.81
6.91
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
6.91
39.81
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Tromsø +3.41 Efficiency Index
vs
Rosenborg -3.41 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Tromsø
Rosenborg
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Tromsø ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Rosenborg
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Tromsø Rosenborg
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Tromsø Rosenborg
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Tromsø
Rosenborg
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Tromsø
vs
Rosenborg
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Tromsø Rosenborg
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Tromsø 0.29
Rosenborg 0.08
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Tromsø Rosenborg
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Tromsø 0.00
Rosenborg 0.03
Tromsø
Rosenborg
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 38 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Tromsø Tromsø Home
38 matches
Rosenborg Rosenborg Away
Match Record
12
Wins
19
7
Draws
7
19
Losses
12
Goals
51
Goals Scored
67
67
Goals Conceded
51
-16
Goal Difference
+16
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-07T00:05:10+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 5-3-2
Match Formation 4-3-3
Pitch
J. Haugaard
Denmark
1 J. Haugaard
L. Jean Cornic
Norway
2 L. Jean Cornic
V. Skjærvik
Norway
4 V. Skjærvik
T. Kvalvågnes Guddal
Norway
21 T. Kvalvågnes Guddal
I. Vådebu
Norway
30 I. Vådebu
A. Warneryd
Substitution
Sweden
29 A. Warneryd
D. Edvardsson
Sweden
5 D. Edvardsson
R. Yttergård Jenssen
Norway
11 R. Yttergård Jenssen
J. Hjertø-Dahl
Substitution
Norway
6 J. Hjertø-Dahl
L. Larsen
Norway
7 L. Larsen
H. Larsen
Substitution
Norway
22 H. Larsen
L. Wahlstedt
Sweden
1 L. Wahlstedt
J. Svensson
Substitution
Norway
22 J. Svensson
H. Røsten
Norway
2 H. Røsten
M. Ceide
Norway
4 M. Ceide
A. Fonn Witry
Substitution
Norway
16 A. Fonn Witry
J. Bakke
Norway
25 J. Bakke
I. Fossum
Substitution
Norway
8 I. Fossum
M. Bomholt
Denmark
17 M. Bomholt
E. Ceide
Substitution
Norway
35 E. Ceide
N. Donovan Sahsah
Substitution
Denmark
11 N. Donovan Sahsah
A. Chiakha
Denmark
18 A. Chiakha

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 06, 2026, 05:15 PM
Competition
2026 Eliteserien, Norway · Round 3 · Regular Season
Stadium
Alfheim Stadion
Capacity
6687
Attendance
6027
Pitch Surface
N/A
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Ola Hobber Nilsen

Statistics

Possession
Tromsø
56%
Rosenborg
44%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 0
4 Big Chances Created 0
13 Shots 2
62 Dangerous attacks 25
53 Possession 47
7 Corners 0
8 Free kicks 8
0 Yellow Cards 3

Match Overview

9 Goal Kicks 14
16 Throwins 12
3 Substitutions 4
1 Assists 0
8 Successful Dribbles 3
67 Successful Dribbles Percentage 25
2 Injuries 2
103 Ball Safe 119
12 Goal Attempts 2
1 Hit Woodwork 0
12 Dribble Attempts 12

Attacking

120 Attacks 74
1 Counter Attacks 1
3 Big Chances Missed 0

Possession

84 Successful Passes Percentage 83
526 Passes 473
443 Successful Passes 394
9 Key Passes 2
57 Long Passes 46
29 Successful Long Passes 16
51 Successful Long Passes Percentage 35

Defensive

17 Tackles 9
50 Duels Won 32
15 Interceptions 6
0 Saves 3

Build-up

22 Total Crosses 10
5 Accurate Crosses 1

Discipline

3 Offsides 0
8 Fouls 8

Lineup

Referee : Ola Hobber Nilsen

Starting XI ▼

1
Jakob Haugaard
Jakob Haugaard Goalkeeper
2
Leo Cornic
Leo Cornic Defender
4
Vetle Skjærvik
Vetle Skjærvik Defender
21
Tobias Guddal
Tobias Guddal Defender
29
Alexander Thongla-Iad Warneryd
Alexander Thongla-Iad Warneryd Defender
25
Abubacarr Sedi Kinteh
Abubacarr Sedi Kinteh
Defender81'
30
Isak Vådebu
Isak Vådebu Defender
5
David Edvardsson
David Edvardsson Midfielder
6
Jens Hjertø-Dahl
Jens Hjertø-Dahl Midfielder
9
Daniel Braut
Daniel Braut
Attacker77'
11
Ruben Yttergård Jenssen
Ruben Yttergård Jenssen Midfielder
7
Lars Olden Larsen
Lars Olden Larsen Attacker
22
Heine Åsen Larsen
Heine Åsen Larsen Attacker
10
Troy Engseth Nyhammer
Troy Engseth Nyhammer
Midfielder89'
Referee : Ola Hobber Nilsen

Starting XI ▼

1
Leopold Wahlstedt
Leopold Wahlstedt Goalkeeper
2
Håkon Røsten
Håkon Røsten Defender
4
Mikkel Konradsen Ceide
Mikkel Konradsen Ceide Defender
16
Aslak Witry
Aslak Witry Defender
3
Tobias Solheim Dahl
Tobias Solheim Dahl
Defender19'
22
Jonas Svensson
Jonas Svensson Defender
15
Jonas Mortensen
Jonas Mortensen
Defender41'
8
Iver Fossum
Iver Fossum Midfielder
10
Ole Selnæs
Ole Selnæs
Midfielder46'
17
Mads Bomholt
Mads Bomholt Midfielder
25
Johan Johanessen Bakke
Johan Johanessen Bakke Midfielder
11
Noah Sahsah
Noah Sahsah Attacker
9
Dino Islamovic
Dino Islamovic
Attacker46'
18
Amin Chiakha
Amin Chiakha Attacker
35
Emil Konradsen Ceide
Emil Konradsen Ceide Attacker
7
Simen Bolkan Nordli
Simen Bolkan Nordli
Midfielder89'

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Troy Engseth Nyhammer → Heine Åsen Larsen
8th Substitution
89'
89'
Event
Simen Bolkan Nordli → Emil Konradsen Ceide
7th Substitution
84'
Event
Mikkel Konradsen Ceide
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
Event
Abubacarr Sedi Kinteh → Alexander Thongla-Iad Warneryd
6th Substitution
81'
Event
Daniel Braut → Jens Hjertø-Dahl
5th Substitution
77'
Event
Heine Åsen Larsen
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
48'
46'
Event
Dino Islamovic → Noah Sahsah
3rd Substitution
46'
Event
Ole Selnæs → Iver Fossum
4th Substitution
1ST-HALF
41'
Event
Jonas Mortensen → Jonas Svensson
2nd Substitution
35'
Event
Jonas Svensson
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
Event
Jens Hjertø-Dahl
Header / 1st Goal
27'
21'
Event
Leopold Wahlstedt
Time wasting / 1st Yellowcard
19'
Event
Tobias Solheim Dahl → Aslak Witry
1st Substitution

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Tromsø exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

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