Tromsø vs Molde Prediction, Preview and Stats

Norway flag 2026 Eliteserien, Norway
Alfheim Stadion Sun, 10 May - 3:00 PM
Eliteserien
Tromsø Tromsø
Versus
Molde Molde
KICKOFF : Sun, 10 May - 3:00 PM
Round 8 Regular Season

CONTEXT

Tromsø host Molde at Alfheim Stadion in the Eliteserien regular season, a matchup pitting the league leaders against fifth-placed challengers. Tromsø's power score of 68.33 edges Molde's 66.71, translating to a 1.6-point advantage that underscores their status as the stronger side on paper. Topping the table highlights Tromsø's structural dominance at home, where Arctic conditions often favor the hosts. Molde counters with a marginally better form score of 26.89 over Tromsø's 24.44, suggesting momentum in recent outings. Detailed efficiency and set-piece metrics remain unavailable due to absent xG data and low-confidence proxies for both squads. Tromsø's position reflects consistent execution, while Molde seeks to exploit any transitional lapses. This 2026 encounter promises intensity, with the home side's league lead providing psychological boost amid sparse advanced stats.

TL;DR

  • Structural: Tromsø lead the Eliteserien at first place, hosting fifth-placed Molde with a 1.6-point power advantage.
  • Form: Molde holds a slight form edge with 26.89 score versus Tromsø's 24.44.
  • Squad: No specific squad composition details available in current data.
  • Efficiency: Efficiency metrics unavailable for both teams.
  • Transition: Transition play data not provided in analysis.
  • Set pieces: Set-piece stats show low confidence using proxy data without xG availability.
  • xVariable: xG-related variables absent due to disabled add-on.
  • Market: Tromsø 47.4% (Δ+0%) | Draw 26.6% (Δ+0%) | Molde 26% (Δ+0%).
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25 vs Team A
Feb 1 vs Team B
Feb 8 vs Team C
Tromsø J. Vik
J. Vik
VS
Molde M. Falk
M. Falk
2.36
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.78
1.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Start Rank: 49 D
Brann Rank: 67 L
Sandefjord Rank: 62 W
Sarpsborg 08 Rank: 60 W
Lillestrøm Rank: 53 D
Kristiansund Rank: 57 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Bodø / Glimt Rank: 83 W
Vålerenga Rank: 60 W
Start Rank: 48 D
HamKam Rank: 60 W
Lillestrøm Rank: 58 L
Viking Rank: 79 L
9
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
9 - 7 - 20
20
No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Tromsø
47.42%
Draw
26.57%
Away Molde
26.01%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
68.33
66.71
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Tromsø
Molde
Power Score
68.33
66.71
League Position
1
5
Global Rank
252
287

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Tromsø — Opponent-weighted form score
Molde — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Tromsø Molde

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 36 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Tromsø Tromsø Home
36 matches
Molde Molde Away
Match Record
9
Wins
20
7
Draws
7
20
Losses
9
Goals
44
Goals Scored
70
70
Goals Conceded
44
-26
Goal Difference
+26

Data last updated: 2026-05-07T00:49:20+00:00

STARTING XI - EXPECTED

Match Formation 3-5-2
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
J. Haugaard
1 J. Haugaard
A. Kinteh
25 A. Kinteh
V. Skjærvik
4 V. Skjærvik
T. Kvalvågnes Guddal
21 T. Kvalvågnes Guddal
L. Jean Cornic
2 L. Jean Cornic
J. Hjertø-Dahl
6 J. Hjertø-Dahl
D. Edvardsson
5 D. Edvardsson
R. Yttergård Jenssen
11 R. Yttergård Jenssen
A. Warneryd
29 A. Warneryd
T. Engseth Nyhammer
10 T. Engseth Nyhammer
H. Larsen
22 H. Larsen
A. Posiadała
22 A. Posiadała
S. Kabini
26 S. Kabini
B. Risa
33 B. Risa
S. Hansen
4 S. Hansen
H. Østervold Stenevik
18 H. Østervold Stenevik
M. Møller Dæhli
17 M. Møller Dæhli
J. Christensen
14 J. Christensen
S. Granaas
23 S. Granaas
E. Breivik
10 E. Breivik
O. Spiten-Nysæter
21 O. Spiten-Nysæter
F. Gulbrandsen
8 F. Gulbrandsen

General Information

Date & Time :
May 10, 2026, 03:00 PM
Competition :
2026 Eliteserien, Norway · Round 8 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Alfheim Stadion
Capacity :
6687
Pitch Surface :
N/A
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Kristoffer Hagenes

Expected Lineup

Referee : Kristoffer Hagenes

Starting XI ▼

1
Jakob Haugaard
Jakob Haugaard Goalkeeper
6.97
29
Alexander Thongla-Iad Warneryd
Alexander Thongla-Iad Warneryd Midfielder
6.87
2
Leo Cornic
Leo Cornic Midfielder
7.08
10
Troy Engseth Nyhammer
Troy Engseth Nyhammer Attacker
6.6
22
Heine Åsen Larsen
Heine Åsen Larsen Attacker
6.94
4
Vetle Skjærvik
Vetle Skjærvik Centre Back
7.14
5
David Edvardsson
David Edvardsson Central Midfield
7.08
11
Ruben Yttergård Jenssen
Ruben Yttergård Jenssen Central Midfield
7.15
25
Abubacarr Sedi Kinteh
Abubacarr Sedi Kinteh Right Back
7.34
6
Jens Hjertø-Dahl
Jens Hjertø-Dahl Central Midfield
7.27
21
Tobias Guddal
Tobias Guddal Left Back
7.15
Referee : Kristoffer Hagenes

Starting XI ▼

22
Albert Posiadala
Albert Posiadala Goalkeeper
7.59
8
Fredrik Gulbrandsen
Fredrik Gulbrandsen Centre Forward
6.93
21
Oskar Spiten-Nysæter
Oskar Spiten-Nysæter Right Wing
6.62
23
Sondre Granaas
Sondre Granaas Left Wing
6.86
4
S. Hansen
S. Hansen Right Back
7.38
17
Mats Møller Dæhli
Mats Møller Dæhli Defensive Midfield
6.84
33
Birk Risa
Birk Risa Left Back
6.99
10
Emil Breivik
Emil Breivik Attacking Midfield
7.69
14
Jacob Christensen
Jacob Christensen Defensive Midfield
6.73
26
Samukelo Kabini
Samukelo Kabini Left Back
6.89
18
Halldor Stenevik
Halldor Stenevik Right Back
7.08

CONCLUSION

Overall, the structural indicators point toward Tromsø holding the stronger pre-match profile. Power rankings give Tromsø a 1.6-point edge. External projection is Tromsø 47.4%, draw 26.2%, and Molde 26.4%. That projection profile aligns with the structural signals. The balance of play should hinge on execution in transitions and set-piece phases.

Tromsø vs Molde preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

About BestPreviews Methodology & FAQ More Match Reports

How We Build This Analysis

BestPreviews combines tactical context, lineup quality, xG trends, and form data across competitions. Read the full methodology and FAQ.

Related Football Previews

Explore League Previews

Eliteserien, Norway View all league clusters View methodology and FAQ