Tottenham Hotspur vs Leeds United Prediction, Preview and Stats

England flag 2025/2026 Premier League, England
Tottenham Hotspur Stadium Mon, 11 May - 7:00 PM
Premier League
Tottenham Hotspur TOT
Versus
Leeds United LEE
KICKOFF : Mon, 11 May - 7:00 PM
Round 36 Regular Season

CONTEXT

Tottenham Hotspur host Leeds United in Premier League (Regular Season) at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium. Domestically, Tottenham Hotspur sit 17th in the table while Leeds United are 14th. Power ranking favours Leeds United by 2.7 points heading into this fixture.

TL;DR

  • Structural: Leeds United possess a 2.7-point power advantage with 87.37 score over Tottenham Hotspur's 84.67.
  • Form: Leeds United lead in form with a 24 score compared to Tottenham Hotspur's 17.78.
  • Squad: Tottenham Hotspur occupy 17th in the league while Leeds United sit 14th.
  • Efficiency: Efficiency data unavailable for both teams in this fixture.
  • Transition: Transition play metrics not provided for the matchup.
  • Set pieces: Set piece stats show low confidence and proxy usage for Tottenham Hotspur and Leeds United.
  • xVariable: xG data absent for set pieces on both sides.
  • Market: Projection split: Tottenham Hotspur 51.8% (Δ+0%) | Draw 23.6% (Δ+0%) | Leeds United 24.6% (Δ+0%).
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25 vs Team A
Feb 1 vs Team B
Feb 8 vs Team C
Tottenham Hotspur R. De Zerbi
R. De Zerbi
VS
Leeds United D. Farke
D. Farke
0.79
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.33
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Aston Villa Rank: 91 W
Wolverhampton Wanderers Rank: 79 W
Brighton & Hove Albion Rank: 89 D
Sunderland Rank: 81 L
Nottingham Forest Rank: 89 L
Liverpool Rank: 92 D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2 i
Last 6 Opponents
Burnley Rank: 77 W
AFC Bournemouth Rank: 89 D
Wolverhampton Wanderers Rank: 79 W
Manchester United Rank: 91 W
Brentford Rank: 89 D
Crystal Palace Rank: 86 D
11
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
11 - 2 - 5
5
No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Tottenham Hotspur
51.84%
Draw
23.57%
Away Leeds United
24.6%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
84.67
87.37
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Tottenham Hotspur
Leeds United
Power Score
84.67
87.37
League Position
17
14
Global Rank
38
24

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Tottenham Hotspur — Opponent-weighted form score
Leeds United — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Tottenham Hotspur Leeds United

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 18 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Tottenham Hotspur TOT Home
18 matches
Leeds United LEE Away
Match Record
11
Wins
5
2
Draws
2
5
Losses
11
Goals
40
Goals Scored
26
26
Goals Conceded
40
+14
Goal Difference
-14

Data last updated: 2026-05-07T00:52:00+00:00

STARTING XI - EXPECTED

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Pitch
A. Kinsky
31 A. Kinsky
P. Porro Sauceda
23 P. Porro Sauceda
K. Danso
4 K. Danso
M. van de Ven
37 M. van de Ven
I. Udogie
13 I. Udogie
R. Bentancur Colmán
30 R. Bentancur Colmán
J. Lobo Alves Palhinha Gonçalves
6 J. Lobo Alves Palhinha Gonçalves
R. Kolo Muani
39 R. Kolo Muani
C. Gallagher
22 C. Gallagher
M. Tel
11 M. Tel
R. de Andrade
9 R. de Andrade
K. Darlow
26 K. Darlow
P. Struijk
5 P. Struijk
J. Bijol
15 J. Bijol
J. Rodon
6 J. Rodon
J. Justin
24 J. Justin
A. Stach
18 A. Stach
E. Ampadu
4 E. Ampadu
J. Bogle
2 J. Bogle
N. Okafor
19 N. Okafor
A. Tanaka
22 A. Tanaka
D. Calvert-Lewin
9 D. Calvert-Lewin

General Information

Date & Time :
May 11, 2026, 07:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Premier League, England · Round 36 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Tottenham Hotspur Stadium
Capacity :
62850
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Jarred Gillett
Steve Meredith
Neil Davies
Thomas Kirk

Expected Lineup

Referee : Jarred Gillett

Starting XI ▼

31
Antonin Kinsky
Antonin Kinsky Goalkeeper
9
Richarlison
Richarlison Centre Forward
6.95
4
Kevin Danso
Kevin Danso Right Back
6.75
37
Micky van de Ven
Micky van de Ven Left Back
6.76
13
Destiny Udogie
Destiny Udogie Left Back
6.53
22
Conor Gallagher
Conor Gallagher Attacking Midfield
6.77
6
João Palhinha
João Palhinha Defensive Midfield
6.89
11
Mathys Tel
Mathys Tel Left Wing
6.73
23
Pedro Porro
Pedro Porro Right Back
6.97
30
Rodrigo Bentancur
Rodrigo Bentancur Defensive Midfield
6.86
39
Randal Kolo Muani
Randal Kolo Muani Right Wing
6.52
Referee : Jarred Gillett

Starting XI ▼

26
Karl Darlow
Karl Darlow Goalkeeper
6.82
2
Jayden Bogle
Jayden Bogle Midfielder
6.6
19
Noah Okafor
Noah Okafor Midfielder
6.81
22
Ao Tanaka
Ao Tanaka Midfielder
6.81
24
James Justin
James Justin Midfielder
6.9
9
Dominic Calvert-Lewin
Dominic Calvert-Lewin Centre Forward
6.91
4
Ethan Ampadu
Ethan Ampadu Central Midfield
6.98
5
Pascal Struijk
Pascal Struijk Left Back
6.9
6
Joe Rodon
Joe Rodon Right Back
6.75
15
Jaka Bijol
Jaka Bijol Centre Back
6.9
18
Anton Stach
Anton Stach Central Midfield
7.27

CONCLUSION

Overall, the structural indicators point toward Leeds United holding the stronger pre-match profile. Power rankings give Leeds United a 2.7-point edge. External projection is Tottenham Hotspur 51.8%, draw 23.6%, and Leeds United 24.6%. That projection profile diverges from the structural signals, so execution is likely to decide the result. The balance of play should hinge on execution in transitions and set-piece phases.

Tottenham Hotspur vs Leeds United preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

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