Swansea City vs Stoke City Prediction, Preview and Stats

England flag 2025/2026 Championship, England
Swansea.com Stadium Sat, 7 Mar - 3:00 PM
Championship
Swansea City SWA
2 Winner 0
Stoke City STK
Full Time Sat, 7 Mar 3:00 PM
Zan Vipotnik - 53'
Liam Cullen - 90+2'
Goal
|
|
Second yellow card Sorba Thomas 36'

CONTEXT

Match is finished. Swansea City 2–0 Stoke City. The result saw Swansea City take the points. Swansea City showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result aligned with the pre-match projection. Possession was 67%–33%. The match featured at least one red card, which may have affected the flow of the game.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Swansea City showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: Red card(s) affected the match (Classify).
  • Red card distortion: Classify as red card distortion.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
B. Toner
B. Toner
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 5.36
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 1.09
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.09
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
R. Ricardo
R. Ricardo
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 5.36
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 1.09
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.09
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
J. Wilson
J. Wilson
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 5.36
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 1.09
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.09
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
A. James
A. James
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 5.36
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 1.09
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.09
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Swansea City Vitor Matos
Vitor Matos
VS
Stoke City M. Robins
M. Robins
1.14
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.33
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Millwall Rank: L
West Bromwich Albion Rank: W
Oxford United Rank: W
Coventry City Rank: L
Wrexham Rank: W
Stoke City Rank: L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Middlesbrough Rank: L
Queens Park Rangers Rank: D
Norwich City Rank: W
Hull City Rank: W
Sheffield United Rank: L
Preston North End Rank: D
8
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
8 - 6 - 15
15

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Swansea City
49.78%
Draw
27.45%
Away Stoke City
22.77%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks’ model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
45.37
43.52
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Swansea City
Stoke City
Power Score
45.37
43.52
League Position
13
15
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Swansea City — Opponent-weighted form score
Stoke City — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Swansea City Stoke City

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Swansea City

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Stoke City

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Swansea City ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Stoke City
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
40.90
25.61
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
25.61
40.90
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Swansea City +1.44 Efficiency Index
vs
Stoke City -1.44 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Swansea City
Stoke City
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Swansea City ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Stoke City
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Swansea City Stoke City
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Swansea City Stoke City
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Swansea City
Stoke City
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 11 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Swansea City SWA Home
11 matches
Stoke City STK Away
Match Record
3
Wins
5
3
Draws
3
5
Losses
3
Goals
13
Goals Scored
17
17
Goals Conceded
13
-4
Goal Difference
+4
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-03-08T00:08:14+00:00

TEAM FORMATION

No team formation data available.

General Information

Date & Time
Mar 07, 2026, 03:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Championship, England
Stadium
Swansea.com Stadium
Capacity
20827
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Ben Toner
Ruebyn Ricardo
James Wilson
Alex James

Statistics

Possession
SWA
63%
STK
37%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 0
0 Big Chances Created 2
12 Shots 5
88 Dangerous attacks 29
67 Possession 33
12 Corners 5
12 Free kicks 7
2 Yellow Cards 6
0 Red Cards 1

Match Overview

21 Successful Headers 21
46 Ball Safe 53
11 Dribble Attempts 14
9 Goal Attempts 2
19 Throwins 14
9 Successful Dribbles Percentage 29
3 Goal Kicks 10
1 Successful Dribbles 4
5 Substitutions 4
1 Assists 0
1 Injuries 0

Attacking

0 Big Chances Missed 2
103 Attacks 67

Possession

458 Successful Passes 189
28 Successful Long Passes Percentage 24
32 Long Passes 42
87 Successful Passes Percentage 72
15 Key Passes 4
9 Successful Long Passes 10
524 Passes 261

Defensive

17 Tackles 18
1 Saves 2
8 Interceptions 8

Build-up

6 Accurate Crosses 4
31 Total Crosses 13

Discipline

7 Fouls 12
0 Offsides 4

Events

2ND-HALF
90+7'
Event
Million Manhoef
Argument / 7th Yellowcard
Event
Liam Cullen
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
90+2'
Event
Joel Ward → Gonçalo Franco
9th Substitution
90'
85'
Event
Junior Tchamadeu
Foul / 6th Yellowcard
Event
Melker Widell → Ethan Galbraith
8th Substitution
81'
Event
Jay Fulton → Marko Stamenić
7th Substitution
81'
Event
Liam Cullen → Ji-sung Eom
6th Substitution
80'
79'
Event
Maksym Taloverov
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
75'
Event
Maksym Taloverov → Ben Wilmot
5th Substitution
70'
Event
Junior Tchamadeu → Eric-Junior Bocat
4th Substitution
Event
Gonçalo Franco
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
67'
Event
Gustavo Nunes → Ronald
3rd Substitution
66'
54'
Event
Million Manhoef → Jesurun Rak-Sakyi
1st Substitution
54'
Event
Milan Smit → Lamine Cissé
2nd Substitution
Event
Zan Vipotnik
Header / 1st Goal
53'
1ST-HALF
36'
Event
Sorba Thomas
Argument / 1st Yellow/red Card
Event
Ronald
Argument / 3rd Yellowcard
34'
30'
Event
Lamine Cissé
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
23'
Event
Sorba Thomas
Foul / 1st Yellowcard

Match Commentary

90
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Swansea City leads 2-0 against Stoke City. Liam Cullen scores for Swansea with a powerful left-footed shot from over 35 yards straight into the center of the net.
90
Update Update
Tatsuki Seko from Stoke City committed a foul.
90
Update Update
Ben Cabango from Swansea City earned a free kick in the defensive area.
90
Corner Corner
Opportunity squandered. Bae Jun-Ho from Stoke City takes a left-footed shot from the center of the box, but it narrowly misses the top left corner of the goal.
90
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be 6 minutes of stoppage time.
90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Million Manhoef of Stoke City has been shown a yellow card.
90
Update Update
The second half has concluded with Swansea City defeating Stoke City 2-0.
90
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Swansea City after Ashley Phillips gave it away.
90
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Joshua Key from Swansea City fires a right-footed shot from the right side of the penalty area, but it's blocked. The assist came from Josh Tymon.
88
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Stoke City after a deflection off Josh Tymon.
87
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Junior Tchamadeu of Stoke City has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
85
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Swansea City after Maksym Talovierov allowed the ball to go out.
85
Update Update
Cameron Burgess from Swansea City has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
85
Update Update
Junior Tchamadeu from Stoke City committed a foul.
84
Attempt Attempt
A shot is deflected. Liam Cullen from Swansea City attempts a left-footed strike from outside the penalty area, but it gets blocked. The assist came from Gonçalo Franco.
84
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity. Melker Widell from Swansea City attempted a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it sailed over the goal. The assist came from Gonçalo Franco.
83
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity wasted. Zan Vipotnik of Swansea City took a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area following a free kick, but it sailed over the goal.
81
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Swansea City: Melker Widell comes on to replace Ethan Galbraith.
81
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Swansea City: Liam Cullen replaces Eom Ji-Sung.
81
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Swansea City: Jay Fulton is coming on to replace Marko Stamenic.
80
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Maksym Talovierov of Stoke City has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
79
Update Update
Maksym Talovierov from Stoke City committed a foul.
79
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Stoke City: Maksym Talovierov replaces Ben Wilmot due to an injury.
79
Update Update
Gonçalo Franco from Swansea City earned a free kick in the offensive zone.
75
Update Update
The pause has ended. They are set to resume play.
75
Update Update
Match is currently paused due to an injury to Ben Wilmot from Stoke City.
73
Update Update
Opportunity wasted! Ashley Phillips from Stoke City attempted a header from the center of the box but failed to find the target. The assist came from Ben Gibson, who also headed the ball.
71
Update Update
Gustavo Nunes from Swansea City committed a foul.
71
Update Update
Junior Tchamadeu from Stoke City has earned a free kick in an offensive position.
70
Update Update
The pause has ended. They are set to resume play.
70
Update Update
Offside call against Stoke City. Ben Gibson has been caught in an offside position.
69
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Stoke City: Junior Tchamadeu replaces Eric-Junior Bocat due to an injury.
68
Update Update
Match temporarily paused due to an injury to Eric-Junior Bocat from Stoke City.
67
Update Update
Gonçalo Franco from Swansea City committed a foul.
67
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Gonçalo Franco from Swansea City has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
67
Update Update
Ashley Phillips from Stoke City earned a free kick in an offensive position.
67
Update Update
Tatsuki Seko from Stoke City has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
67
Update Update
Gustavo Nunes from Swansea City committed a foul.
66
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Swansea City: Gustavo Nunes is coming on to replace Ronald.
66
Corner Corner
Opportunity wasted. Ethan Galbraith of Swansea City took a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area that was near the target but went wide to the left. The assist came from Eom Ji-Sung following a corner kick.
65
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Swansea City after Eric-Junior Bocat allowed the ball to go out.
64
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Swansea City after Ben Wilmot allowed the ball to go out.
62
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Swansea City after Eric-Junior Bocat allowed the ball to go out.
59
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity wasted. Gonçalo Franco from Swansea City attempted a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it sailed over the goal. The assist came from Ethan Galbraith.
58
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is denied. Gonçalo Franco from Swansea City takes a right-footed shot from the middle of the penalty area, but it's blocked.
58
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Ronald from Swansea City takes a right-footed shot from the right side of the penalty area, but it gets blocked. The assist came from Joshua Key.
56
Attempt Attempt
The attempt on goal was thwarted. Ronald from Swansea City took a right-footed shot from the right side of the penalty area, but it was blocked. The assist came from Marko Stamenic.
56
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity! Joshua Key from Swansea City took a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, and it narrowly missed the target. The assist came from Ronald.
54
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Stoke City: Million Manhoef comes on to replace Jesurun Rak-Sakyi.
54
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Stoke City: Milan Smit replaces Lamine Cissé.
53
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Swansea City takes the lead with a score of 1-0 against Stoke City. Zan Vipotnik scores with a header from the center of the penalty area, directing the ball into the left corner of the net. The assist comes from Josh Tymon, who delivered a cross following a corner kick.
52
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to Swansea City after a play that resulted in a deflection off Bae Jun-Ho.
50
Update Update
Eric-Junior Bocat from Stoke City committed a foul.
50
Update Update
Ronald from Swansea City earned a free kick on the right side of the field.
48
Attempt Attempt
Ethan Galbraith from Swansea City takes a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it's intercepted and blocked.
48
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Ethan Galbraith of Swansea City heads the ball from the middle of the penalty area, but his shot is blocked. The assist came from Joshua Key, who delivered a cross.
48
Update Update
Lamine Cissé from Stoke City has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
48
Update Update
Ben Cabango from Swansea City committed a foul.
45
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be three minutes of stoppage time.
45
Update Update
Stoke City is called for offside. Lamine Cissé has been caught in an offside position.
45
Update Update
The first half has concluded with a score of Swansea City 0, Stoke City 0.
45
Corner Corner
Opportunity wasted. Cameron Burgess of Swansea City attempted a header from the center of the box, but it sailed high and to the right. The assist came from Ethan Galbraith following a corner kick.
45
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Swansea City after a deflection off Ben Wilmot.
45
Update Update
The second half is underway with the score still tied at 0-0 between Swansea City and Stoke City.
44
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Ethan Galbraith from Swansea City takes a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it's blocked. The assist came from Eom Ji-Sung.
43
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Swansea City after Bae Jun-Ho allowed the ball to go out of play.
41
Update Update
Ben Cabango from Swansea City committed a foul.
41
Update Update
Gonçalo Franco from Swansea City committed a foul.
38
Update Update
The pause has ended. They're set to resume play.
37
Update Update
Match is currently on hold due to an injury to Gonçalo Franco from Swansea City.
36
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Sorba Thomas from Stoke City has received his second yellow card for committing a foul.
36
Update Update
Gonçalo Franco from Swansea City earned a free kick in an offensive position.
36
Update Update
Sorba Thomas committed a foul on a Stoke City player.
35
Update Update
Offside call against Stoke City. Ashley Phillips has been caught in an offside position.
34
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Ronald from Swansea City has been shown a yellow card.
34
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Ronald from Swansea City has been shown a yellow card.
31
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity squandered. Zan Vipotnik from Swansea City took a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area that went just wide after a free kick.
30
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Lamine Cissé from Stoke City has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
30
Update Update
Eom Ji-Sung from Swansea City earned a free kick in an offensive position.
30
Update Update
Lamine Cissé from Stoke City committed a foul.
29
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Swansea City after Eric-Junior Bocat allowed the ball to go out.
26
Update Update
Sorba Thomas from Stoke City earned a free kick in the defensive area.
26
Update Update
Sorba Thomas from Stoke City earned a free kick in the defensive area.
25
Update Update
Ethan Galbraith from Swansea City committed a foul.
25
Update Update
Jesurun Rak-Sakyi committed a foul for Stoke City.
23
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Sorba Thomas of Stoke City has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
23
Update Update
Gonçalo Franco from Swansea City has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
23
Update Update
Eom Ji-Sung from Swansea City earned a free kick on the left flank.
23
Update Update
Sorba Thomas committed a foul on a player from Stoke City.
22
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Bae Jun-Ho from Stoke City takes a left-footed shot from the middle of the penalty area, but it gets blocked. The assist came from Eric-Junior Bocat.
22
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Stoke City after a deflection off Cameron Burgess.
22
Attempt Attempt
A blocked attempt! Lamine Cissé from Stoke City took a right-footed shot from a challenging angle on the right, but it was successfully defended.
22
Update Update
Another offensive effort underway. Ashley Phillips from Stoke City attempts a header from the middle of the box, but it's stopped by the goalkeeper, Lawrence Vigouroux of Swansea City, who is positioned centrally. The assist came from Lamine Cissé, who delivered a cross.
22
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Stoke City after a deflection off Cameron Burgess.
20
Corner Corner
Opportunity squandered. Josh Tymon of Swansea City attempted a left-footed shot from the left side of the penalty area but failed to find the target. The assist came from Zan Vipotnik following a corner kick.
19
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Swansea City after Sorba Thomas allowed the ball to go out.
18
Attempt Attempt
The attempt on goal was denied. Eric-Junior Bocat from Stoke City took a left-footed shot from within the six-yard box, but it was blocked on the left side. The assist came from Jesurun Rak-Sakyi.
17
Update Update
Stoke City has been called for offside. Ashley Phillips is positioned beyond the last defender.
17
Update Update
Offside call against Stoke City. Ashley Phillips has been caught in an offside position.
16
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Stoke City after a deflection off Josh Tymon.
11
Corner Corner
Opportunity wasted. Joshua Key from Swansea City takes a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area following a corner, but it sails over the crossbar.
10
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Swansea City after Tommy Simkin allowed the ball to go out.
10
Corner Corner
A fresh offensive play unfolds as Josh Tymon from Swansea City takes a right-footed shot from the left side of the penalty area, but Tommy Simkin from Stoke City makes a save in the right corner. The assist came from Eom Ji-Sung.
9
Update Update
Eric-Junior Bocat from Stoke City has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
9
Update Update
Gonçalo Franco from Swansea City committed a foul.
8
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity. Josh Tymon from Swansea City took a left-footed shot from the left side of the penalty area, but it went wide to the left.
6
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Swansea City after Ben Gibson allowed the ball to go out.
5
Update Update
Jesurun Rak-Sakyi committed a foul against Stoke City.
5
Update Update
Josh Tymon from Swansea City was awarded a free kick on the left flank.
5
Update Update
Tatsuki Seko from Stoke City committed a foul.
5
Update Update
Eom Ji-Sung from Swansea City earned a free kick in the attacking zone.
4
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Swansea City after Eric-Junior Bocat allowed the ball to go out.
4
Update Update
Opportunity wasted. Zan Vipotnik from Swansea City attempted a header from the center of the penalty area but sent it wide to the left. The assist came from Eom Ji-Sung, who delivered a cross.
3
Update Update
Ronald from Swansea City was awarded a free kick on the right flank.
3
Update Update
Eric-Junior Bocat from Stoke City committed a foul.
1
Update Update
Eric-Junior Bocat from Stoke City committed a foul.
1
Attempt Attempt
A fresh offensive play unfolds. Ethan Galbraith from Swansea City takes a left-footed shot from the middle of the penalty area, but it's expertly stopped by the goalkeeper, Tommy Simkin of Stoke City, who is positioned centrally. The setup for this chance came from Zan Vipotnik, who delivered a precise through ball.
1
Update Update
Joshua Key from Swansea City was awarded a free kick in the defensive area.

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Swansea City exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Structural distortion: The match was materially influenced by red card(s), altering baseline dynamics. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

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