Südtirol vs Virtus Entella Prediction, Preview and Stats

Italy flag 2025/2026 Serie B, Italy
Stadio Marco Druso Sat, 7 Mar - 2:00 PM
Serie B
Südtirol SUD
0 Winner 1
Virtus Entella ENT
Full Time Sat, 7 Mar 2:00 PM
|
Goal
Ivan Marconi - 73'

CONTEXT

Match is finished. Südtirol 0–1 Virtus Entella. The result saw Virtus Entella take the points. Virtus Entella showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result diverged from the pre-match projection. Possession was 60%–40%.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Virtus Entella showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
A. Calzavara
A. Calzavara
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 11.17
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 1.65
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.26
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.13
C. Barone
C. Barone
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 11.17
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 1.65
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.26
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.13
G. Grasso
G. Grasso
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 11.17
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 1.65
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.26
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.13
G. Castellano
G. Castellano
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 11.17
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 1.65
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.26
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.13
Südtirol F. Castori
F. Castori
VS
Virtus Entella A. Chiappella
A. Chiappella
1.2
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0.92
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Venezia Rank: D
Palermo Rank: L
Bari 1908 Rank: W
Monza Rank: D
Carrarese Rank: D
Catanzaro Rank: W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Monza Rank: L
Catanzaro Rank: L
Palermo Rank: L
Cesena Rank: W
Spezia Rank: D
Frosinone Rank: D
1
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
1 - 1 - 0
0

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Südtirol
53.82%
Draw
29.05%
Away Virtus Entella
17.13%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks’ model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
42.53
38.79
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Südtirol
Virtus Entella
Power Score
42.53
38.79
League Position
9
14
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Südtirol — Opponent-weighted form score
Virtus Entella — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Südtirol Virtus Entella

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Südtirol

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Virtus Entella

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Südtirol ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Virtus Entella
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
27.00
23.38
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
23.38
27.00
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Südtirol +0.35 Efficiency Index
vs
Virtus Entella -0.35 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Südtirol
Virtus Entella
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Südtirol ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Virtus Entella
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Südtirol Virtus Entella
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Südtirol Virtus Entella
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Südtirol
Virtus Entella
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 1 match between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Südtirol SUD Home
1 matches
Virtus Entella ENT Away
Match Record
0
Wins
0
1
Draws
1
0
Losses
0
Goals
1
Goals Scored
1
1
Goals Conceded
1
0
Goal Difference
0
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-03-08T00:04:58+00:00

TEAM FORMATION

No team formation data available.

General Information

Date & Time
Mar 07, 2026, 02:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Serie B, Italy
Stadium
Stadio Marco Druso
Capacity
5539
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Andrea Calzavara
Claudio Barone
Gianluca Grasso
Giovanni Castellano

Statistics

Possession
SUD
59%
ENT
41%

Top Statistics

0 Goals 1
0 Big Chances Created 1
8 Shots 4
84 Dangerous attacks 27
60 Possession 40
6 Corners 2
20 Free kicks 10
1 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

4 Goal Kicks 9
44 Successful Dribbles Percentage 29
70 Ball Safe 66
38 Throwins 16
18 Dribble Attempts 17
1 Goal Attempts 4
8 Successful Dribbles 5
5 Substitutions 5
0 Assists 1
0 Injuries 1

Attacking

121 Attacks 70
0 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

373 Passes 258
31 Successful Long Passes 31
71 Successful Passes Percentage 63
40 Successful Long Passes Percentage 40
266 Successful Passes 163
78 Long Passes 77
6 Key Passes 7

Defensive

19 Tackles 19
4 Interceptions 9
1 Saves 2

Build-up

29 Total Crosses 15
6 Accurate Crosses 2

Discipline

9 Fouls 11
3 Offsides 1

Events

2ND-HALF
85'
Event
Mattia Alborghetti → Marco Dalla Vecchia
10th Substitution
81'
Event
Marco Nichetti → Leonardo Benedetti
8th Substitution
81'
Event
Mattia Tirelli → Luigi Cuppone
9th Substitution
Event
Riccardo Tonin → Daniele Casiraghi
7th Substitution
80'
73'
Event
Ivan Marconi
Left foot shot / 1st Goal
72'
Event
Tommaso Del Lungo → Davide Bariti
6th Substitution
Event
Simone Verdi → Emanuele Pecorino
4th Substitution
71'
Event
Frédéric Veseli → Raphael Kofler
5th Substitution
71'
71'
Event
Riccardo Turicchia → Stefano Di Mario
3rd Substitution
Event
Fabian Tait → Domen Črnigoj
2nd Substitution
54'
Event
Simone Davi → Karim Zedadka
1st Substitution
54'
1ST-HALF
38'
Event
Davide Bariti
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
32'
Event
Ivan Marconi
Persistent fouling / 2nd Yellowcard
Event
Emanuele Pecorino
Var
26'
Event
Raphael Kofler
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
11'

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Virtus Entella exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

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