Strasbourg vs FSV Mainz 05 Prediction, Preview and Stats

Europe flag 2025/2026 Europa Conference League, Europe
Stade de la Meinau Today - 7:00 PM
Europa Conference League
Strasbourg STR
Versus
FSV Mainz 05 M05
KICKOFF : Today - 7:00 PM
Quarter Finals Leg 2 of 2 Aggregate : 0 - 2

CONTEXT

Strasbourg welcome FSV Mainz 05 to Stade de la Meinau for the second leg of this Europa Conference League quarter-final. The hosts trail 0-2 on aggregate after losing the first meeting in Germany and must find a clinical edge to overturn the deficit against the stronger side. Mainz hold a clear power advantage and showed control in the opening leg, while Strasbourg boast a strong league position and solid recent results at home. The French side have won four of their last six matches overall but need an immediate response in front of an expectant crowd. Mainz arrive with a resilient record and will aim to absorb pressure before striking on the break. This knockout clash carries high stakes as the visitors look to protect their lead and advance, while Strasbourg chase a comeback in what promises to be an intense European night.

TL;DR

  • Structural: Quarter-final second leg at Stade de la Meinau. Mainz lead 2-0 on aggregate from first leg victory.
  • Form: Strasbourg hold strong W4 D1 L1 record but lost last outing to Mainz. Visitors have W3 D2 L1 from six matches.
  • Squad: Both teams fielding near full-strength squads with no major absences reported.
  • Efficiency: No efficiency metrics available for this fixture.
  • Transition: Mainz hold edge in transition play, posing threat on counters against Strasbourg's attacking approach.
  • Set pieces: Low confidence set piece data with proxies used. No significant advantage for either side.
  • xVariable: Advanced xG statistics unavailable in this stage of the competition.
  • Market: Strasbourg 54.4% (Δ+0.4%) | Draw 24.5% (Δ+-0%) | FSV Mainz 05 21.2% (Δ-0.4%).
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25 vs Team A
Feb 1 vs Team B
Feb 8 vs Team C
Strasbourg G. O'Neil
G. O'Neil
VS
FSV Mainz 05 U. Fischer
U. Fischer
2.13
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
2.13
2.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
FSV Mainz 05 Rank: L
Rijeka Rank: D
Rijeka Rank: W
Breidablik Rank: W
Aberdeen Rank: W
Crystal Palace Rank: W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Strasbourg Rank: W
Sigma Olomouc Rank: W
Sigma Olomouc Rank: D
Samsunspor Rank: W
Lech Poznań Rank: D
Universitatea Craiova Rank: L
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 0 - 1
1
No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Strasbourg
54.37%
Draw
24.45%
Away FSV Mainz 05
21.18%

Movement

Changes since opening
Strasbourg
+0.39%
Draw
-0.03%
FSV Mainz 05
-0.36%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
29.35
41.03
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Strasbourg
FSV Mainz 05
Power Score
29.35
41.03
League Position
1
7
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Strasbourg — Opponent-weighted form score
FSV Mainz 05 — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Strasbourg FSV Mainz 05

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 1 match between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Strasbourg STR Home
1 matches
FSV Mainz 05 M05 Away
Match Record
0
Wins
1
0
Draws
0
1
Losses
0
Goals
0
Goals Scored
2
2
Goals Conceded
0
-2
Goal Difference
+2
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-16T00:01:35+00:00

STARTING XI - EXPECTED

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 3-5-2
Pitch
M. Penders
39 M. Penders
G. Doué
22 G. Doué
I. Doukoure
6 I. Doukoure
A. Omobamidele
2 A. Omobamidele
B. Chilwell
3 B. Chilwell
M. Oyedele
8 M. Oyedele
S. El Mourabet
29 S. El Mourabet
G. Yassine
80 G. Yassine
V. Barco
32 V. Barco
M. Godo
20 M. Godo
J. Enciso
19 J. Enciso
D. Batz
33 D. Batz
D. Kohr
31 D. Kohr
S. Posch
4 S. Posch
D. Vieira da Costa
21 D. Vieira da Costa
P. Mwene
2 P. Mwene
P. Nebel
8 P. Nebel
S. Kawasaki
24 S. Kawasaki
K. Sano
6 K. Sano
S. Widmer
30 S. Widmer
N. Weiper
44 N. Weiper
P. Tietz
20 P. Tietz

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 16, 2026, 07:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Europa Conference League, Europe · Quarter Finals · Leg 2 of 2 · Aggregate : 0 - 2
Stadium
Stade de la Meinau
Capacity
29200
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Joao Pedro Pinheiro
Bruno Miguel Alves Jesus
Luciano António Gomes Maia
João António Ferreira Gonçalves

Expected Lineup

Referee : Joao Pedro Pinheiro

Starting XI ▼

39
Mike Penders
Mike Penders Goalkeeper
7
22
Guela Doué
Guela Doué Defender
6.74
6
Ismaël Doukouré
Ismaël Doukouré Defender
6.87
2
Andrew Omobamidele
Andrew Omobamidele Defender
6.95
3
Ben Chilwell
Ben Chilwell Defender
6.91
8
Maxi Oyedele
Maxi Oyedele Midfielder
6.55
29
Samir El Mourabet
Samir El Mourabet Midfielder
6.94
32
Valentín Barco
Valentín Barco Midfielder
7.11
19
Julio Enciso
Julio Enciso Midfielder
7.09
80
Gessime Yassine
Gessime Yassine Attacker
7.18
20
Martial Godo
Martial Godo Attacker
7.12
Referee : Joao Pedro Pinheiro

Starting XI ▼

33
Daniel Batz
Daniel Batz Goalkeeper
7.04
4
Stefan Posch
Stefan Posch Defender
7.46
31
Dominik Kohr
Dominik Kohr Defender
6.98
2
Phillipp Mwene
Phillipp Mwene Defender
6.88
30
Silvan Widmer
Silvan Widmer Defender
6.82
21
Danny da Costa
Danny da Costa Defender
6.87
8
Paul Nebel
Paul Nebel Midfielder
7.04
6
Kaishu Sano
Kaishu Sano Midfielder
6.98
24
Sota Kawasaki
Sota Kawasaki Midfielder
6.97
20
Phillip Tietz
Phillip Tietz Attacker
6.93
44
Nelson Weiper
Nelson Weiper Attacker
6.87

CONCLUSION

Strasbourg face a tough task to erase the two-goal deficit but will draw on home support and their strong league form to press from the start. Mainz enter as the stronger team on key metrics and can afford to play with control, focusing on defensive structure and quick breaks. The first-leg result gives the visitors confidence and tactical flexibility. Success for the hosts depends on high tempo, clinical chances and avoiding further concessions. Knockout ties often produce drama and the Meinau atmosphere may yet inspire a response. Mainz remain well placed to progress but cannot afford complacency against a side capable of rapid momentum shifts.

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