St. Pauli vs FC Köln Prediction, Preview and Stats

Germany flag 2025/2026 Bundesliga, Germany
Millerntor-Stadion Tomorrow - 6:30 PM
Bundesliga
St. Pauli PAU
Versus
FC Köln KOE
KICKOFF : Tomorrow - 6:30 PM
Round 30 Regular Season

CONTEXT

St. Pauli host FC Köln in the 2025/2026 Bundesliga Regular Season at Millerntor-Stadion. The home side sit in 16th position in the league table while the visitors occupy 13th place as both teams seek improved results in the second half of the campaign. St. Pauli's season form reads W1 D2 L3 from 6 matches while FC Köln's season form reads W1 D3 L2 from 6 matches. In their last outing St. Pauli recorded a loss at home to FC Bayern München. FC Köln recorded a win at home against Werder Bremen in their previous match. Recent performances highlight the need for greater consistency from both clubs.

TL;DR

  • Structural: St. Pauli hold a +2.6 pts power-ranking advantage heading into this fixture.
  • Form: FC Köln sit below baseline on opponent-adjusted form.
  • Squad: No major squad or availability edge; impact is neutral.
  • Efficiency: St. Pauli show stronger possession-adjusted chance creation in the data.
  • Transition: St. Pauli have a moderate edge in transition threat.
  • Set pieces: St. Pauli carry higher set-play value and dead-ball upside.
  • xVariable: St. Pauli hold a marginal advantage on underlying metrics.
  • Market: Baseline split: St. Pauli 35.3% (Δ+0%) | Draw 29.4% (Δ+0%) | FC Köln 35.3% (Δ+0%).
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25 vs Team A
Feb 1 vs Team B
Feb 8 vs Team C
St. Pauli A. Blessin
A. Blessin
VS
FC Köln R. Wagner
R. Wagner
0.78
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0.87
0.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
FC Bayern München Rank: L
FC Union Berlin Rank: D
SC Freiburg Rank: L
Borussia Mönchengladbach Rank: L
Eintracht Frankfurt Rank: D
TSG Hoffenheim Rank: W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1 i
Last 6 Opponents
Werder Bremen Rank: W
Eintracht Frankfurt Rank: D
Borussia Mönchengladbach Rank: D
Hamburger SV Rank: D
Borussia Dortmund Rank: L
FC Augsburg Rank: L
1
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
1 - 1 - 1
1
No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home St. Pauli
35.28%
Draw
29.44%
Away FC Köln
35.28%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
18.4
15.79
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
St. Pauli
FC Köln
Power Score
18.4
15.79
League Position
16
13
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
St. Pauli — Opponent-weighted form score
FC Köln — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) St. Pauli FC Köln

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 3 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

St. Pauli PAU Home
3 matches
FC Köln KOE Away
Match Record
1
Wins
1
1
Draws
1
1
Losses
1
Goals
4
Goals Scored
2
2
Goals Conceded
4
+2
Goal Difference
-2
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-16T00:04:22+00:00

STARTING XI

Pitch
N. Vasilj
Bosnia and Herzegovina
22 N. Vasilj
T. Ando
Japan
15 T. Ando
H. Wahl
Germany
5 H. Wahl
K. Mets
Estonia
3 K. Mets
A. Pyrka
Poland
11 A. Pyrka
M. Rasmussen
Norway
20 M. Rasmussen
C. Metcalfe
Australia
24 C. Metcalfe
L. Ritzka
Germany
21 L. Ritzka
D. Sinani
Luxembourg
10 D. Sinani
M. Pereira Lage
Portugal
28 M. Pereira Lage
A. Hountondji
France
27 A. Hountondji
M. Schwäbe
Germany
1 M. Schwäbe
K. Hansen
Denmark
32 K. Hansen
C. Özkacar
Turkey
39 C. Özkacar
J. Simpson-Pusey
England
22 J. Simpson-Pusey
S. Sebulonsen
Norway
28 S. Sebulonsen
J. Kamiński
Poland
16 J. Kamiński
E. Martel
Germany
6 E. Martel
Í. Jóhannesson
Iceland
18 Í. Jóhannesson
J. Thielmann
Germany
29 J. Thielmann
S. El Mala
Germany
13 S. El Mala
R. Ache
Germany
9 R. Ache

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 17, 2026, 06:30 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Bundesliga, Germany · Round 30 · Regular Season
Stadium
Millerntor-Stadion
Capacity
29546
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Matthias Jöllenbeck

Lineup

Referee : Matthias Jöllenbeck

Starting XI ▼

22
Nikola Vasilj
Nikola Vasilj Goalkeeper
6.85
3
Karol Mets
Karol Mets Defender
6.62
5
Hauke Wahl
Hauke Wahl Defender
6.79
11
Arkadiusz Pyrka
Arkadiusz Pyrka Defender
6.65
15
T. Ando
T. Ando Defender
6.62
21
Lars Ritzka
Lars Ritzka Defender
6.58
10
Danel Sinani
Danel Sinani Midfielder
7.03
20
Mathias Rasmussen
Mathias Rasmussen Midfielder
6.6
24
Connor Metcalfe
Connor Metcalfe Midfielder
6.56
28
Mathias Pereira Lage
Mathias Pereira Lage Midfielder
6.82
27
Andréas Hountondji
Andréas Hountondji Attacker
6.58
Referee : Matthias Jöllenbeck

Starting XI ▼

1
Marvin Schwäbe
Marvin Schwäbe Goalkeeper
6.89
22
Jahmai Simpson-Pusey
Jahmai Simpson-Pusey Defender
6.67
28
Sebastian Sebulonsen
Sebastian Sebulonsen Defender
6.56
32
Kristoffer Lund
Kristoffer Lund Defender
6.73
39
Cenk Özkacar
Cenk Özkacar Defender
6.65
6
Eric Martel
Eric Martel Midfielder
6.87
16
Jakub Kamiński
Jakub Kamiński Midfielder
7.1
18
Ísak Jóhannesson
Ísak Jóhannesson Midfielder
6.76
29
Jan Thielmann
Jan Thielmann Midfielder
6.7
9
Ragnar Ache
Ragnar Ache Attacker
6.93
13
Said El Mala
Said El Mala Attacker
6.77

CONCLUSION

St. Pauli has the stronger pre-match profile, as indicated by their power advantage of 2.6 points compared to FC Köln. The structural signals therefore support the home side, even if FC Köln currently sits higher in the league table and possesses a better form record from the last six matches. Projections list an identical 35.3 percent for both a St. Pauli win and an FC Köln win with the draw at 29.4 percent, which means the projection and structural signals diverge. St. Pauli comes off a home loss while FC Köln earned a home win in their previous appearances. Careful attention to set piece situations may influence the outcome in this Regular Season fixture.

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