Sporting Gijón vs Real Sociedad II Prediction, Preview and Stats

Spain flag 2025/2026 La Liga 2, Spain
Estadio Municipal El Molinón Mon, 6 Apr - 6:30 PM
La Liga 2
Sporting Gijón SPO
1 Winner 0
Real Sociedad II Real Sociedad II
Full Time Mon, 6 Apr 6:30 PM
Round 34 Regular Season
Gaspar Campos - 45'
Goal
|

CONTEXT

The match between Sporting Gijón and Real Sociedad II has officially finished, with the home side securing a 1-0 full-time victory. Sporting Gijón established their lead early, heading into halftime with a 1-0 advantage that they successfully maintained until the final whistle. The hosts controlled the overall flow of the game, holding 56% of the possession compared to Real Sociedad II's 44%. Pre-match expectations favored the hosts, with Sporting Gijón given a commanding 59.5% implied probability of winning. Real Sociedad II stood at just a 17.3% chance, while a draw was priced at 23.2%. The final outcome fully aligned with this pre-match market. Ultimately, Sporting Gijón's win represented a significant deviation in their favor compared to the baseline odds. Expected goals (xG) data was unavailable for this fixture, making it impossible to determine if the result aligned with the underlying shot quality. Despite this lack of data, the overall efficiency shift was in line with expectations. The contest was also settled evenly on the pitch without any major disciplinary impacts, as neither team received a red card during the game.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Sporting Gijón showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
G. Cid Camacho
G. Cid Camacho
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 19.95
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 4.52
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.14
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.32
S. López Freixa
S. López Freixa
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 19.95
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 4.52
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.14
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.32
D. Pescador Hernández
D. Pescador Hernández
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 19.95
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 4.52
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.14
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.32
J. Aranda Delgado
J. Aranda Delgado
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 19.95
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 4.52
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.14
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.32
Sporting Gijón B. Jiménez Sáez
B. Jiménez Sáez
VS
Real Sociedad II J. Ansotegi Gorostola
J. Ansotegi Gorostola
1.48
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.36
0.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Racing Santander Rank: 69 L
Deportivo La Coruña Rank: 68 D
Las Palmas Rank: 69 L
Castellón Rank: 66 W
FC Andorra Rank: 64 L
Leganés Rank: 65 D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1 i
Last 6 Opponents
SD Eibar Rank: 68 L
Almería Rank: 70 L
Granada Rank: 66 L
Córdoba Rank: 63 W
Castellón Rank: 67 W
Deportivo La Coruña Rank: 68 L
1
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
1 - 0 - 2
2

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Sporting Gijón
59.53%
Draw
23.15%
Away Real Sociedad II
17.32%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
64.66
56.17
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Sporting Gijón
Real Sociedad II
Power Score
64.66
56.17
League Position
9
15
Global Rank
326
452

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Sporting Gijón — Opponent-weighted form score
Real Sociedad II — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Sporting Gijón Real Sociedad II

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Sporting Gijón

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Real Sociedad II

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Sporting Gijón ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Real Sociedad II
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
43.48
28.07
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
28.07
43.48
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Sporting Gijón +1.56 Efficiency Index
vs
Real Sociedad II -1.56 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Sporting Gijón
Real Sociedad II
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Sporting Gijón ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Real Sociedad II
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Sporting Gijón Real Sociedad II
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Sporting Gijón Real Sociedad II
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Sporting Gijón
Real Sociedad II
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Sporting Gijón
vs
Real Sociedad II
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Sporting Gijón Real Sociedad II
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Sporting Gijón 0.31
Real Sociedad II 0.41
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Sporting Gijón Real Sociedad II
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Sporting Gijón 0.00
Real Sociedad II 0.01
Sporting Gijón
Real Sociedad II
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 3 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Sporting Gijón SPO Home
3 matches
Real Sociedad II Real Sociedad II Away
Match Record
1
Wins
2
0
Draws
0
2
Losses
1
Goals
2
Goals Scored
3
3
Goals Conceded
2
-1
Goal Difference
+1
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-07T00:05:33+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-4-2
Pitch
O. Yáñez Alabart
Spain
1 O. Yáñez Alabart
G. Rosas Alonso
Spain
2 G. Rosas Alonso
P. Vázquez Pérez
Spain
15 P. Vázquez Pérez
D. Sánchez Pérez
Spain
5 D. Sánchez Pérez
B. Oliván Herrero
Substitution
Spain
12 B. Oliván Herrero
J. Smith
Substitution
British Virgin Islands
24 J. Smith
A. Corredera Alardi
Spain
14 A. Corredera Alardi
J. Dubasin
Belgium
17 J. Dubasin
C. Gelabert Pina
Spain
10 C. Gelabert Pina
G. Campos Ansó Fernández
Substitution
Spain
7 G. Campos Ansó Fernández
J. Otero Tovar
Substitution
Colombia
19 J. Otero Tovar
E. Arana Aizpurua
Spain
13 E. Arana Aizpurua
J. Balda Zubiri
Spain
3 J. Balda Zubiri
K. Kita
Substitution
Japan
15 K. Kita
U. Ayo Larrañaga
Spain
39 U. Ayo Larrañaga
A. Dadie Izagirre
Spain
22 A. Dadie Izagirre
A. Marchal Garcia
Substitution
Spain
19 A. Marchal Garcia
J. Eceizabarrena Rezola
Substitution
Spain
21 J. Eceizabarrena Rezola
T. Carbonell Del Rio
14 T. Carbonell Del Rio
L. Astiazarán Escabias
Substitution
Spain
17 L. Astiazarán Escabias
A. Mariezkurrena Etxezarreta
Substitution
Spain
10 A. Mariezkurrena Etxezarreta
G. Carrera Zarranz
Spain
18 G. Carrera Zarranz

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 06, 2026, 06:30 PM
Competition
2025/2026 La Liga 2, Spain · Round 34 · Regular Season
Stadium
Estadio Municipal El Molinón
Capacity
30000
Attendance
16778
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Germán Cid Camacho
Sergi López Freixa
Daniel Pescador Hernández
José María Aranda Delgado

Statistics

Possession
SPO
55%
Real Sociedad II
45%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 0
2 Big Chances Created 0
5 Shots 5
67 Dangerous attacks 27
56 Possession 44
8 Corners 3
11 Free kicks 7
1 Yellow Cards 3

Match Overview

9 Goal Kicks 6
17 Dribble Attempts 13
12 Successful Dribbles 10
21 Throwins 24
71 Successful Dribbles Percentage 77
78 Ball Safe 85
15 Goal Attempts 10
1 Assists 0
4 Substitutions 5

Attacking

108 Attacks 102
1 Big Chances Missed 0

Possession

82 Successful Passes Percentage 78
16 Key Passes 7
407 Successful Passes 305
497 Passes 391
76 Long Passes 61
39 Successful Long Passes 29
51 Successful Long Passes Percentage 48

Defensive

8 Tackles 12
2 Saves 6
51 Duels Won 49
7 Interceptions 5

Build-up

22 Total Crosses 18
10 Accurate Crosses 8

Discipline

1 Offsides 3
7 Fouls 11

Lineup

Referee : Germán Cid Camacho

Starting XI ▼

1
Rubén Yáñez
Rubén Yáñez Goalkeeper
2
Guille Rosas
Guille Rosas Defender
5
Diego Sánchez
Diego Sánchez Defender
12
Brian Oliván
Brian Oliván Defender
3
Pablo García
Pablo García
Defender73'
15
Pablo Vázquez
Pablo Vázquez Defender
7
Gaspar Campos
Gaspar Campos Midfielder
23
Eric Curbelo
Eric Curbelo
Defender82'
10
César Gelabert
César Gelabert Midfielder
14
Àlex Corredera
Àlex Corredera Midfielder
17
Jonathan Dubasin
Jonathan Dubasin Midfielder
24
Justin Smith
Justin Smith Midfielder
8
Jesús Bernal
Jesús Bernal
Midfielder82'
19
Juan Otero
Juan Otero Attacker
47
Miguel Conde
Miguel Conde
Attacker90+5'
Referee : Germán Cid Camacho

Starting XI ▼

13
Egoitz Arana
Egoitz Arana Goalkeeper
3
Jon Balda
Jon Balda Defender
15
Kazunari Kita
Kazunari Kita Defender
23
Unax Agote
Unax Agote
Defender46'
22
Alberto Dadie
Alberto Dadie Defender
39
Unax Larrañaga
Unax Larrañaga Defender
14
Tomy Carbonell
Tomy Carbonell Midfielder
17
Lander Astiazaran
Lander Astiazaran Midfielder
7
Dani Díaz
Dani Díaz
Attacker63'
19
Alex Marchal
Alex Marchal Midfielder
8
Mikel Rodriguez
Mikel Rodriguez
Midfielder63'
21
Joni Eceiza
Joni Eceiza Midfielder
16
Gorka Gorosabel
Gorka Gorosabel
Midfielder63'
10
Arkaitz Mariezkurrena
Arkaitz Mariezkurrena Attacker
33
Jakes Gorosabel
Jakes Gorosabel
Attacker90+3'
18
Gorka Carrera
Gorka Carrera Attacker

Events

2ND-HALF
90+8'
Event
Mikel Rodriguez
Argument / 4th Yellowcard
Event
Miguel Conde → Juan Otero
9th Substitution
90+5'
90+3'
Event
Jakes Gorosabel → Arkaitz Mariezkurrena
8th Substitution
87'
Event
Jon Balda
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
Event
Jesús Bernal → Justin Smith
6th Substitution
82'
Event
Eric Curbelo → Gaspar Campos
7th Substitution
82'
80'
Event
Gorka Gorosabel
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
Event
Pablo García → Brian Oliván
5th Substitution
73'
63'
Event
Dani Díaz → Lander Astiazaran
2nd Substitution
63'
Event
Gorka Gorosabel → Joni Eceiza
3rd Substitution
63'
Event
Mikel Rodriguez → Alex Marchal
4th Substitution
Event
Juan Otero
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
50'
46'
Event
Unax Agote → Kazunari Kita
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Gaspar Campos
Header / 1st Goal
45'
Event
Var
32'

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Sporting Gijón exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

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