Spezia vs Empoli Prediction, Preview and Stats

Italy flag 2025/2026 Serie B, Italy
Stadio Alberto Picco Tue, 17 Mar - 7:00 PM
Serie B
Spezia SPE
1 – 1
Empoli EMP
Full Time Tue, 17 Mar 7:00 PM
Gabriele Artistico - 69'
Goal
|
Goal
Edoardo Saporiti - 90+6' (P)

CONTEXT

Match is finished. Spezia 1–1 Empoli. The match ended in a draw. Empoli showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result aligned with the pre-match projection. Possession was 52%–48%.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Empoli showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
No referee statistics available.
Spezia R. Donadoni
R. Donadoni
VS
Empoli F. Caserta
F. Caserta
0.96
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.13
0.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Reggiana Rank: 50 L
Cesena Rank: 54 W
Frosinone Rank: 65 L
Bari 1908 Rank: 49 D
Virtus Entella Rank: 48 D
Sampdoria Rank: 54 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Cesena Rank: 54 D
Frosinone Rank: 65 D
Reggiana Rank: 50 D
Juve Stabia Rank: 57 L
Palermo Rank: 64 L
Modena Rank: 59 D
3
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
3 - 8 - 2
2

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Spezia
36.42%
Draw
31.14%
Away Empoli
32.44%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
52.2
52.32
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Spezia
Empoli
Power Score
52.2
52.32
League Position
18
13
Global Rank
670
605

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Spezia — Opponent-weighted form score
Empoli — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Spezia Empoli

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Spezia

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Empoli

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Spezia ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Empoli
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
38.37
24.38
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
24.38
38.37
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Spezia +1.36 Efficiency Index
vs
Empoli -1.36 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Spezia
Empoli
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Spezia ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Empoli
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Spezia Empoli
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 1.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Spezia Empoli
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
1.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Spezia
Empoli
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 13 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Spezia SPE Home
13 matches
Empoli EMP Away
Match Record
3
Wins
2
8
Draws
8
2
Losses
3
Goals
15
Goals Scored
14
14
Goals Conceded
15
+1
Goal Difference
-1
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-03-18T00:03:55+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-5-1-1
Match Formation 4-4-1-1
Pitch
B. Radunović
Serbia
22 B. Radunović
M. Ruggero
Italy
4 M. Ruggero
P. Hristov
Substitution
Bulgaria
55 (C) P. Hristov
G. Bonfanti
Italy
94 G. Bonfanti
E. Adamo
Italy
70 E. Adamo
Á. Nagy
Substitution
Hungary
8 Á. Nagy
A. Romano
Switzerland
60 A. Romano
F. Bandinelli
Substitution
Italy
25 F. Bandinelli
G. Aurelio
Italy
31 G. Aurelio
M. Valoti
Substitution
Italy
5 M. Valoti
G. Artistico
Italy
9 G. Artistico
A. Fulignati
Italy
21 A. Fulignati
B. Moruzzi
Italy
27 B. Moruzzi
M. Lovato
Italy
20 (C) M. Lovato
G. Guarino
Italy
34 G. Guarino
A. Candela
Italy
26 A. Candela
S. Elia
Substitution
Italy
7 S. Elia
G. Yepes Laut
Substitution
Spain
14 G. Yepes Laut
L. Magnino
Italy
8 L. Magnino
S. Shpendi
Substitution
Albania
11 S. Shpendi
D. Degl'Innocenti
Substitution
Italy
6 D. Degl'Innocenti
M. Nasti
Substitution
Italy
19 M. Nasti

General Information

Date & Time
Mar 17, 2026, 07:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Serie B, Italy
Stadium
Stadio Alberto Picco
Capacity
10336
Pitch Surface
Artificial turf
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Luca Massimi

Statistics

Possession
SPE
52%
EMP
48%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 1
4 Big Chances Created 1
10 Shots 4
59 Dangerous attacks 34
52 Possession 48
7 Corners 1
19 Free kicks 16
1 Yellow Cards 5

Match Overview

21 Throwins 27
17 Dribble Attempts 11
9 Successful Dribbles 6
53 Successful Dribbles Percentage 55
5 Goal Kicks 12
64 Ball Safe 71
9 Goal Attempts 9
4 Substitutions 5
1 Assists 0
0 Penalties 1
0 Injuries 1

Attacking

100 Attacks 90
3 Big Chances Missed 0

Possession

78 Successful Passes Percentage 78
356 Passes 334
65 Long Passes 59
12 Key Passes 8
279 Successful Passes 259
26 Successful Long Passes 30
40 Successful Long Passes Percentage 51

Defensive

5 Interceptions 7
18 Tackles 15
3 Saves 2

Build-up

28 Total Crosses 17
8 Accurate Crosses 6

Discipline

16 Fouls 20
0 Offsides 4

Lineup

Referee : Luca Massimi

Starting XI ▼

22
Boris Radunović
Boris Radunović Goalkeeper
6.78
4
Marco Ruggero
Marco Ruggero Defender
6.7
55
Petko Hristov
Petko Hristov (C) Defender
7.59
32
Luca Vignali
Luca Vignali
Defender78'
6.68
94
Giovanni Bonfanti
Giovanni Bonfanti Defender
6.54
8
Ádám Nagy
Ádám Nagy Midfielder
6.5
34
Christian Comotto
Christian Comotto
Midfielder63'
6.39
25
Filippo Bandinelli
Filippo Bandinelli Midfielder
6.77
6
Alessandro Bellemo
Alessandro Bellemo
Midfielder89'
31
Giuseppe Aurelio
Giuseppe Aurelio Midfielder
6.32
60
Alessandro Romano
Alessandro Romano Midfielder
7.38
70
Emanuele Adamo
Emanuele Adamo Midfielder
7.13
5
Mattia Valoti
Mattia Valoti Attacker
6.89
17
Leonardo Sernicola
Leonardo Sernicola
Defender78'
6.27
9
Gabriele Artistico
Gabriele Artistico Attacker
7.25
Referee : Luca Massimi

Starting XI ▼

21
Andrea Fulignati
Andrea Fulignati Goalkeeper
6.71
20
Matteo Lovato
Matteo Lovato (C) Defender
6.54
26
Antonio Candela
Antonio Candela Defender
7.14
27
Brando Moruzzi
Brando Moruzzi Defender
7.23
34
Gabriele Guarino
Gabriele Guarino Defender
6.85
7
Salvatore Elia
Salvatore Elia Midfielder
6.66
15
Joseph Ceesay
Joseph Ceesay
Defender46'
6.16
8
Luca Magnino
Luca Magnino Midfielder
6.75
11
Stiven Shpendi
Stiven Shpendi Midfielder
6.72
70
Edoardo Saporiti
Edoardo Saporiti
Midfielder80'
7.05
14
Gerard Yepes
Gerard Yepes Midfielder
6.67
32
Nicolas Haas
Nicolas Haas
Midfielder56'
6.48
6
Duccio Degli Innocenti
Duccio Degli Innocenti Attacker
6.65
17
Daniel Fila
Daniel Fila
Attacker80'
6.66
19
Marco Nasti
Marco Nasti Attacker
6.64
77
Bogdan Popov
Bogdan Popov
Attacker55'
6.89

Events

2ND-HALF
90+6'
Event
Edoardo Saporiti
Right foot shot / 1st Penalty
90+3'
Event
Gabriele Guarino
Penalty awarded
Event
Alessandro Bellemo → Filippo Bandinelli
9th Substitution
89'
80'
Event
Daniel Fila → Duccio Degli Innocenti
7th Substitution
80'
Event
Edoardo Saporiti → Stiven Shpendi
8th Substitution
79'
Event
Duccio Degli Innocenti
Foul / 6th Yellowcard
Event
Leonardo Sernicola → Mattia Valoti
5th Substitution
78'
Event
Luca Vignali → Petko Hristov 
6th Substitution
78'
75'
Event
Nicolas Haas
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
Event
Gabriele Artistico
Header / 1st Goal
69'
65'
Event
Antonio Candela
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
Event
Christian Comotto → Ádám Nagy
4th Substitution
63'
56'
Event
Nicolas Haas → Gerard Yepes
3rd Substitution
55'
Event
Bogdan Popov → Marco Nasti
2nd Substitution
51'
Event
Matteo Lovato
3rd Yellowcard
46'
Event
Joseph Ceesay → Salvatore Elia
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
40'
Event
Marco Nasti
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
Event
Filippo Bandinelli
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
38'

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Empoli exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

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