Southampton vs Norwich City Prediction, Preview and Stats

England flag 2025/2026 Championship, England
St. Mary's Stadium Wed, 18 Mar - 7:45 PM
Championship
Southampton SOU
1 Winner 0
Norwich City NOR
Full Time Wed, 18 Mar 7:45 PM
Finn Azaz - 24'
Goal
|

CONTEXT

Match is finished. Southampton 1–0 Norwich City. The result saw Southampton take the points. Southampton showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result aligned with the pre-match projection. Possession was 43%–57%.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Southampton showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
  • Market: Southampton 49.2% (Δ+0%) | Draw 26.3% (Δ+0%) | Norwich City 24.5% (Δ+0%).
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
No referee statistics available.
Southampton Tonda Eckert
Tonda Eckert
VS
Norwich City P. Clement
P. Clement
1.3
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.08
0.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Sheffield United Rank: 70 W
Hull City Rank: 70 L
Middlesbrough Rank: 73 L
Millwall Rank: 73 D
Birmingham City Rank: 70 D
Oxford United Rank: 64 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2 i
Last 6 Opponents
Coventry City Rank: 75 W
West Bromwich Albion Rank: 64 W
Wrexham Rank: 73 W
Stoke City Rank: 67 L
Queens Park Rangers Rank: 64 W
Watford Rank: 68 L
12
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
12 - 6 - 8
8

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Southampton
49.21%
Draw
26.34%
Away Norwich City
24.45%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
66.36
70.16
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Southampton
Norwich City
Power Score
66.36
70.16
League Position
6
12
Global Rank
111
172

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Southampton — Opponent-weighted form score
Norwich City — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Southampton Norwich City

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Southampton

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Norwich City

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Southampton ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Norwich City
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
26.05
29.39
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
29.39
26.05
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Southampton -0.31 Efficiency Index
vs
Norwich City +0.31 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Southampton
Norwich City
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Southampton ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Norwich City
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Southampton Norwich City
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Southampton Norwich City
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Southampton
Norwich City
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 26 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Southampton SOU Home
26 matches
Norwich City NOR Away
Match Record
12
Wins
8
6
Draws
6
8
Losses
12
Goals
43
Goals Scored
31
31
Goals Conceded
43
+12
Goal Difference
-12
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-03-19T00:06:11+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-1-4-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
D. Peretz
Israel
41 D. Peretz
J. Bree
England
14 J. Bree
T. Harwood-Bellis
England
6 T. Harwood-Bellis
J. Stephens
England
5 J. Stephens
R. Manning
Republic of Ireland
3 R. Manning
F. Downes
Substitution
England
4 F. Downes
K. Matsuki
Substitution
Japan
27 K. Matsuki
F. Azaz
England
10 F. Azaz
C. Jander
Substitution
Germany
20 C. Jander
S. Edozie
Substitution
England
23 S. Edozie
C. Larin
Canada
9 C. Larin
V. Kovačević
Bosnia and Herzegovina
1 V. Kovačević
K. Fisher
England
35 K. Fisher
J. Cordoba Chambers
Panama
33 J. Cordoba Chambers
R. McConville
Northern Ireland
15 R. McConville
J. Stacey
Substitution
England
3 J. Stacey
S. Field
Substitution
England
26 S. Field
K. McLean
Scotland
23 K. McLean
A. Ahmed
Substitution
Canada
21 A. Ahmed
A. Slimane
Substitution
Tunisia
20 A. Slimane
E. Maghoma
England
25 E. Maghoma
M. Kvistgaarden
Substitution
Denmark
30 M. Kvistgaarden

General Information

Date & Time
Mar 18, 2026, 07:45 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Championship, England
Stadium
St. Mary's Stadium
Capacity
32384
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ , Clear
Referees
Robert Evans
Lewis Smith
Ian Cooper
Nigel Lugg

Statistics

Possession
SOU
44%
NOR
56%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 0
2 Big Chances Created 3
9 Shots 14
44 Dangerous attacks 55
43 Possession 57
5 Corners 6
13 Free kicks 13
3 Yellow Cards 4

Match Overview

11 Dribble Attempts 19
24 Throwins 15
5 Goal Kicks 6
17 Successful Headers 11
1 Assists 0
4 Substitutions 5
52 Ball Safe 59
5 Goal Attempts 9
4 Successful Dribbles 14
36 Successful Dribbles Percentage 74
0 Injuries 1

Attacking

66 Attacks 82
1 Big Chances Missed 3

Possession

346 Passes 462
278 Successful Passes 390
80 Successful Passes Percentage 84
7 Key Passes 12
44 Long Passes 44
16 Successful Long Passes 15
36 Successful Long Passes Percentage 34

Defensive

7 Saves 3
12 Interceptions 10
18 Tackles 16
52 Duels Won 53

Build-up

12 Total Crosses 20
2 Accurate Crosses 3

Discipline

13 Fouls 13
3 Offsides 0

Lineup

Referee : Lewis Smith

Starting XI ▼

41
Daniel Peretz
Daniel Peretz Goalkeeper
3
Ryan Manning
Ryan Manning Defender
5
Jack Stephens
Jack Stephens Defender
6
Taylor Harwood-Bellis
Taylor Harwood-Bellis Defender
14
James Bree
James Bree Defender
4
Flynn Downes
Flynn Downes Midfielder
48
Cameron Bragg
Cameron Bragg
Midfielder65'
10
Finn Azaz
Finn Azaz Midfielder
20
Caspar Jander
Caspar Jander Midfielder
24
Shea Emmanuel Charles
Shea Emmanuel Charles
Midfielder74'
23
Samuel Edozie
Samuel Edozie Midfielder
18
Tom Fellows
Tom Fellows
Midfielder74'
27
Kuryu Matsuki
Kuryu Matsuki Midfielder
15
Nathan Wood
Nathan Wood
Defender89'
9
Cyle Larin
Cyle Larin Attacker
Referee : Lewis Smith

Starting XI ▼

1
Vladan Kovačević
Vladan Kovačević Goalkeeper
3
Jack Stacey
Jack Stacey Defender
8
Liam Gibbs
Liam Gibbs
Midfielder73'
15
Ruairi McConville
Ruairi McConville Defender
33
José Córdoba
José Córdoba Defender
35
Kellen Fisher
Kellen Fisher Defender
20
Anis Slimane
Anis Slimane Midfielder
18
Amankwah Forson
Amankwah Forson
Midfielder87'
21
Ali Ahmed
Ali Ahmed Midfielder
16
Jacob Wright
Jacob Wright
Midfielder87'
23
Kenny McLean
Kenny McLean Midfielder
25
Paris Maghoma
Paris Maghoma Midfielder
26
Sam Field
Sam Field Midfielder
7
P. Mattsson
P. Mattsson
Midfielder46'
30
Mathias Kvistgaarden
Mathias Kvistgaarden Attacker
46
Errol Mundle-Smith
Errol Mundle-Smith
Attacker60'

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Nathan Wood → Kuryu Matsuki
9th Substitution
89'
87'
Event
Amankwah Forson → Anis Slimane
7th Substitution
87'
Event
Jacob Wright → Ali Ahmed
8th Substitution
Event
Finn Azaz
Foul / 7th Yellowcard
84'
Event
Taylor Harwood-Bellis
Time wasting / 6th Yellowcard
82'
Event
Shea Emmanuel Charles → Caspar Jander
5th Substitution
74'
Event
Tom Fellows → Samuel Edozie
6th Substitution
74'
73'
Event
Liam Gibbs → Jack Stacey
4th Substitution
69'
Event
P. Mattsson
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
Event
Cameron Bragg → Flynn Downes
3rd Substitution
65'
60'
Event
Errol Mundle-Smith → Mathias Kvistgaarden
2nd Substitution
Event
Flynn Downes
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
48'
46'
Event
P. Mattsson → Sam Field
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
41'
Event
Kellen Fisher
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
37'
Event
Jack Stacey
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
27'
Event
Anis Slimane
1st Yellowcard
Event
Finn Azaz
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
24'

Match Commentary

90
Update Update
Match halted due to an injury to Daniel Peretz from Southampton.
90
Update Update
The pause has ended. They are set to resume play.
90
Update Update
Cyle Larin from Southampton committed a foul.
90
Update Update
Pelle Mattsson of Norwich City was awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
90
Corner Corner
Missed opportunity! Kellen Fisher from Norwich City attempted a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area following a corner, but it went wide.
90
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Southampton after Kellen Fisher allowed the ball to go out of play.
90
Update Update
Ryan Manning from Southampton committed a foul.
90
Update Update
Amankwah Forson from Norwich City has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
90
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be 7 minutes of stoppage time.
90
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Norwich City after Jack Stephens allowed the ball to go out.
90
Update Update
Another offensive effort underway. Ruairi McConville from Norwich City heads the ball from the middle of the box, but Daniel Peretz from Southampton makes a great save, keeping it out of the top center of the goal. The assist came from Liam Gibbs, who delivered a precise cross.
90
Update Update
The second half has concluded with the final score: Southampton 1, Norwich City 0.
89
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Southampton: Nathan Wood replaces Kuryu Matsuki.
88
Update Update
Paris Maghoma committed a foul against Norwich City.
88
Update Update
Taylor Harwood-Bellis from Southampton has earned a free kick in the defensive area.
87
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Norwich City: Amankwah Forson replaces Anis Ben Slimane.
87
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Norwich City: Jacob Wright is coming on to replace Ali Ahmed.
86
Update Update
Ryan Manning from Southampton committed a foul.
86
Update Update
Ruairi McConville from Norwich City earned a free kick in an offensive position.
85
Update Update
Ryan Manning from Southampton committed a foul.
84
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Finn Azaz from Southampton has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
83
Update Update
Ali Ahmed from Norwich City has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
83
Update Update
Finn Azaz from Southampton committed a foul.
82
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Taylor Harwood-Bellis from Southampton has been shown a yellow card.
81
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Southampton after a deflection off Vladan Kovacevic.
81
Update Update
Offside call against Southampton. Taylor Harwood-Bellis has been flagged for being offside.
80
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Southampton after a play that resulted in Vladan Kovacevic giving it away.
76
Update Update
Finn Azaz from Southampton has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
76
Update Update
José Córdoba from Norwich City committed a foul.
74
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Southampton: Tom Fellows comes on to replace Samuel Edozie.
74
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Southampton: Shea Charles replaces Caspar Jander.
73
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Norwich City: Liam Gibbs comes on to replace Jack Stacey, who is leaving the field due to an injury.
73
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity squandered! Errol Mundle-Smith from Norwich City attempted a right-footed shot from the right side of the penalty area, but it sailed over the bar. The chance was set up by Paris Maghoma during a quick counterattack.
72
Update Update
The pause has ended. They are set to resume play.
71
Update Update
Match halted due to an injury to Jack Stacey from Norwich City.
71
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity wasted! Caspar Jander from Southampton took a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it sailed high and to the left of the goal. The assist came from Finn Azaz.
70
Update Update
Kuryu Matsuki from Southampton committed a foul.
70
Update Update
Ali Ahmed from Norwich City has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
69
Update Update
Pelle Mattsson from Norwich City committed a foul.
69
Update Update
Taylor Harwood-Bellis from Southampton has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
69
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Pelle Mattsson from Norwich City has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
67
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Norwich City after Daniel Peretz allowed the ball to go out.
67
Corner Corner
A new offensive play unfolds as Kellen Fisher from Norwich City takes a right-footed shot from within the six-yard box. However, Daniel Peretz from Southampton makes a great save, stopping the ball in the left corner.
67
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Norwich City after Daniel Peretz allowed the ball to go out.
65
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Southampton: Cameron Bragg comes on to replace Flynn Downes.
63
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Norwich City after Jack Stephens allowed the ball to go out.
62
Attempt Attempt
Another offensive push. Kenny McLean from Norwich City takes a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it's successfully stopped.
62
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Norwich City after a play that resulted in a deflection off Daniel Peretz.
62
Update Update
A header attempt from Ruairi McConville of Norwich City is denied as it gets blocked. The chance was set up by Kenny McLean, who delivered a cross from the left side of the box.
60
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Norwich City: Errol Mundle-Smith is coming on to replace Mathias Kvistgaarden.
58
Attempt Attempt
The attempt on goal is thwarted. Paris Maghoma of Norwich City fires a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it gets blocked. The assist came from Kellen Fisher.
56
Corner Corner
A fresh offensive effort unfolds as Anis Ben Slimane from Norwich City takes a right-footed shot from the center of the penalty area. However, Daniel Peretz from Southampton makes a crucial save, denying the attempt in the bottom left corner. The assist for this play comes from Paris Maghoma.
55
Update Update
Flynn Downes from Southampton committed a foul.
55
Update Update
Kenny McLean from Norwich City earned a free kick in the defensive area.
54
Update Update
Kuryu Matsuki from Southampton committed a foul.
54
Update Update
Pelle Mattsson from Norwich City earned a free kick in the defensive area.
51
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Southampton after a play that resulted in a deflection off Vladan Kovacevic.
51
Corner Corner
A new offensive push is underway. Cyle Larin from Southampton takes a right-footed shot from a challenging angle on the right side, but it's expertly saved in the bottom right corner by Vladan Kovacevic of Norwich City.
50
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Norwich City after Kuryu Matsuki allowed the ball to go out.
48
Update Update
Pelle Mattsson from Norwich City earned a free kick in an offensive position.
48
Update Update
Pelle Mattsson from Norwich City was awarded a free kick in an offensive position.
48
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Flynn Downes from Southampton has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
46
Update Update
Anis Ben Slimane from Norwich City committed a foul.
46
Update Update
Caspar Jander from Southampton has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
45
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Norwich City: Pelle Mattsson comes on to replace Sam Field.
45
Update Update
The first half has concluded with Southampton leading Norwich City 1-0.
45
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Southampton after Kellen Fisher allowed the ball to go out.
45
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be two minutes of stoppage time.
45
Update Update
The second half is underway with Southampton leading Norwich City 1-0.
44
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity! Paris Maghoma of Norwich City takes a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it sails high and to the right of the goal. The assist came from Ali Ahmed.
41
Update Update
Kuryu Matsuki from Southampton has been awarded a free kick in an offensive position.
41
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Kellen Fisher from Norwich City has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
41
Update Update
Kellen Fisher from Norwich City committed a foul.
41
Attempt Attempt
A shot is deflected. Finn Azaz from Southampton attempts a right-footed strike from outside the penalty area, but it's blocked. The assist comes from Samuel Edozie.
38
Update Update
Finn Azaz from Southampton commits a handball.
37
Update Update
Samuel Edozie from Southampton was awarded a free kick on the left flank.
37
Update Update
Jack Stacey from Norwich City committed a foul.
37
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Jack Stacey from Norwich City has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
36
Update Update
Flynn Downes from Southampton committed a foul.
36
Update Update
Ali Ahmed from Norwich City has been awarded a free kick in an attacking position.
34
Update Update
Kuryu Matsuki from Southampton committed a foul.
34
Update Update
Kellen Fisher from Norwich City was awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
33
Update Update
Caspar Jander from Southampton committed a foul.
33
Update Update
Kenny McLean from Norwich City earned a free kick in the defensive area.
31
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity. Taylor Harwood-Bellis of Southampton attempted a header from the center of the penalty area, but it sailed over the bar. The cross was delivered by Ryan Manning.
30
Update Update
Jack Stacey from Norwich City committed a foul.
30
Update Update
Samuel Edozie from Southampton was awarded a free kick on the left flank.
28
Update Update
Kuryu Matsuki from Southampton has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
28
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Southampton after Kellen Fisher allowed the ball to go out.
28
Update Update
Kellen Fisher from Norwich City committed a foul.
27
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Anis Ben Slimane from Norwich City has been shown a yellow card.
27
Update Update
José Córdoba commits a handball for Norwich City.
24
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Southampton takes the lead with a score of 1-0 against Norwich City. Finn Azaz scores with a right-footed shot from the right side of the six-yard box, placing it perfectly in the top left corner. The assist comes from Cyle Larin, who set him up with a header.
23
Attempt Attempt
A shot is deflected. Samuel Edozie from Southampton attempts a right-footed strike from the left side of the penalty area, but it's blocked. The assist came from Cyle Larin.
23
Update Update
Offside call against Southampton. Finn Azaz has been caught offside.
23
Corner Corner
A fresh offensive effort unfolds as James Bree from Southampton takes a right-footed shot from the right side of the penalty area, but it’s expertly stopped in the left corner by Vladan Kovacevic of Norwich City.
22
Update Update
Mathias Kvistgaarden from Norwich City committed a foul.
22
Update Update
Samuel Edozie from Southampton was awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
16
Attempt Attempt
The attempt on goal was thwarted. Finn Azaz from Southampton fired a right-footed shot from the right side of the penalty area, but it was blocked. The assist came from James Bree.
14
Update Update
Paris Maghoma commits a foul against Norwich City.
14
Update Update
Finn Azaz from Southampton earned a free kick in the defensive area.
13
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Norwich City after Daniel Peretz allowed the ball to go out.
13
Corner Corner
A fresh offensive effort unfolds as Anis Ben Slimane from Norwich City takes a right-footed shot from the middle of the penalty area. The attempt is expertly stopped in the left corner by Daniel Peretz of Southampton, following an assist from Mathias Kvistgaarden.
12
Update Update
Offside call against Southampton. Ryan Manning has been caught offside.
8
Update Update
Paris Maghoma committed a foul against Norwich City.
8
Update Update
Ryan Manning from Southampton has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
8
Attempt Attempt
A fresh offensive move unfolds as Paris Maghoma from Norwich City takes a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area. However, the attempt is thwarted by goalkeeper Daniel Peretz, who makes a save right in the middle of the goal. The assist for this play comes from Kenny McLean of Southampton.
5
Update Update
Anis Ben Slimane from Norwich City committed a foul.
5
Update Update
Samuel Edozie from Southampton earned a free kick on the left flank.
4
Attempt Attempt
The attempt on goal was thwarted. Mathias Kvistgaarden of Norwich City fired a right-footed shot from the left side of the penalty area, but it was blocked. The assist came from Anis Ben Slimane.
2
Update Update
Ali Ahmed from Norwich City has been awarded a free kick in an attacking position.
2
Update Update
James Bree committed a foul against Southampton.

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Southampton exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

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