Sochi vs Rubin Kazan Prediction, Preview and Stats

Russia flag 2025/2026 Premier League, Russia
Olimpiyskiy Stadion Fisht Mon, 6 Apr - 4:30 PM
Premier League
Sochi Sochi
0 Winner 1
Rubin Kazan RKA
Full Time Mon, 6 Apr 4:30 PM
Round 23 Regular Season
|
Goal
Ruslan Bezrukov - 19'

CONTEXT

The match between Sochi and Rubin Kazan has officially finished, with Rubin Kazan claiming a hard-fought 1-0 away victory. The visitors established their lead early, heading into halftime with a 1-0 advantage that they successfully defended until the final whistle. Pre-match market data was entirely neutral, showing zero percent probabilities for a home win, draw, or away win. Nonetheless, the result ultimately aligned with the broader market expectation that Rubin Kazan was the stronger team. The match featured a significant deviation level favoring Rubin Kazan, representing a 100 percent deviation shift from certain pre-game baseline metrics. On the pitch, Sochi held a slight possession edge with 52 percent of the ball compared to Rubin Kazan's 48 percent. Because expected goals (xG) data was unavailable for this fixture, it cannot be determined whether the final outcome was consistent with the underlying xG differential. However, the overall team efficiency shift was deemed to be directly in line with general performance expectations. Additionally, the flow of the game was uninterrupted by severe disciplinary actions, as the match concluded cleanly with zero red cards issued to either side.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Rubin Kazan showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
V. Petrosyan
V. Petrosyan
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 22.98
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.78
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.25
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.55
A. Obrazko
A. Obrazko
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 22.98
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.78
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.25
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.55
N. Voloshin
N. Voloshin
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 22.98
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.78
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.25
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.55
N. Novikov
N. Novikov
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 22.98
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.78
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.25
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.55
Sochi I. Osinkin
I. Osinkin
VS
Rubin Kazan F. Cebrián
F. Cebrián
0.36
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.09
0.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Baltika Kaliningrad Rank: 66 L
Krasnodar Rank: 75 L
FK Nizjni Novgorod Rank: 51 L
Spartak Moskva Rank: 73 L
Lokomotiv Moskva Rank: 71 L
Dynamo Makhachkala Rank: 57 D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Krylya Sovetov Rank: 55 D
Lokomotiv Moskva Rank: 72 W
Krasnodar Rank: 77 W
Dynamo Makhachkala Rank: 57 L
Rostov Rank: 60 L
Zenit Rank: 80 L
3
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
3 - 2 - 4
4

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Sochi
0%
Draw
0%
Away Rubin Kazan
0%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
43.09
62.09
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Sochi
Rubin Kazan
Power Score
43.09
62.09
League Position
16
7
Global Rank
823
402

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Sochi — Opponent-weighted form score
Rubin Kazan — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Sochi Rubin Kazan

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Sochi

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Rubin Kazan

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Sochi ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Rubin Kazan
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
33.94
15.94
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
15.94
33.94
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Sochi +1.99 Efficiency Index
vs
Rubin Kazan -1.99 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Sochi
Rubin Kazan
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Sochi ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Rubin Kazan
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Sochi Rubin Kazan
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Sochi Rubin Kazan
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Sochi
Rubin Kazan
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Sochi
vs
Rubin Kazan
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Sochi Rubin Kazan
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Sochi 0.28
Rubin Kazan 0.18
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Sochi Rubin Kazan
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Sochi 0.03
Rubin Kazan 0.00
Sochi
Rubin Kazan
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 9 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Sochi Sochi Home
9 matches
Rubin Kazan RKA Away
Match Record
3
Wins
4
2
Draws
2
4
Losses
3
Goals
16
Goals Scored
11
11
Goals Conceded
16
+5
Goal Difference
-5
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-07T00:04:44+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-4-3
Match Formation 3-4-3
Pitch
Y. Dyupin
Russia
99 Y. Dyupin
A. Soldatenkov
Russia
3 A. Soldatenkov
M. Alves Santos
Brazil
33 M. Alves Santos
V. Litvinov
Russia
4 V. Litvinov
S. Volkov
Substitution
Russia
82 S. Volkov
M. Mukhin
Substitution
Russia
16 M. Mukhin
A. Kovalenko
Russia
19 A. Kovalenko
K. Zaika
Substitution
Russia
27 K. Zaika
G. Martins Furtado dos Santos
Substitution
Brazil
23 G. Martins Furtado dos Santos
Z. Fedorov
Substitution
Russia
9 Z. Fedorov
M. Ignatov
Russia
8 M. Ignatov
E. Staver
Russia
38 E. Staver
E. Teslenko
Russia
2 E. Teslenko
I. Vujačić
Montenegro
5 I. Vujačić
A. Gritsaenko
Russia
27 A. Gritsaenko
I. Rozhkov
Substitution
Russia
51 I. Rozhkov
D. Kuzyaev
Substitution
Russia
14 D. Kuzyaev
I. Saavedra Pino
Substitution
Chile
7 I. Saavedra Pino
A. Arroyo Córdoba
Colombia
12 A. Arroyo Córdoba
R. Bezrukov
Substitution
Russia
23 R. Bezrukov
N. Gripshi
Substitution
Albania
11 N. Gripshi
V. Hodža
Croatia
22 V. Hodža

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 06, 2026, 04:30 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Premier League, Russia · Round 23 · Regular Season
Stadium
Olimpiyskiy Stadion Fisht
Capacity
47659
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Varantso Petrosyan
Andrey Obrazko
Nikolay Voloshin
Nikita Novikov

Statistics

Possession
Sochi
52%
RKA
48%

Top Statistics

0 Goals 1
1 Big Chances Created 1
7 Shots 1
53 Dangerous attacks 33
52 Possession 48
6 Corners 1
19 Free kicks 21
2 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

5 Goal Kicks 9
0 Assists 1
2 Hit Woodwork 0
81 Ball Safe 88
5 Substitutions 5
1 Injuries 3
16 Goal Attempts 3
39 Successful Dribbles Percentage 57
7 Successful Dribbles 4
15 Successful Headers 18
18 Throwins 21
18 Dribble Attempts 7

Attacking

1 Big Chances Missed 0
107 Attacks 83

Possession

41 Successful Long Passes Percentage 40
23 Successful Long Passes 28
437 Passes 414
342 Successful Passes 294
78 Successful Passes Percentage 71
56 Long Passes 70

Defensive

47 Duels Won 51
0 Saves 4
9 Tackles 14
10 Interceptions 11

Build-up

27 Total Crosses 6
6 Accurate Crosses 1

Discipline

4 Offsides 3
15 Fouls 18

Lineup

Referee : Nikita Novikov

Starting XI ▼

99
Y. Dyupin
Y. Dyupin Goalkeeper
3
A. Soldatenkov
A. Soldatenkov Defender
4
Vyacheslav Litvinov
Vyacheslav Litvinov Defender
33
Marcelo Alves
Marcelo Alves Defender
16
Maksim Mukhin
Maksim Mukhin Midfielder
17
Artem Makarchuk
Artem Makarchuk
Defender75'
19
A. Kovalenko
A. Kovalenko Midfielder
27
Kirill Zaika
Kirill Zaika Midfielder
10
Martin Kramaric
Martin Kramaric
Midfielder75'
82
Sergey Volkov
Sergey Volkov Midfielder
45
François Kamano
François Kamano
Attacker88'
8
Mikhail Ignatov
Mikhail Ignatov Attacker
9
Zakhar Fedorov
Zakhar Fedorov Attacker
98
Vladimir Iljin
Vladimir Iljin
Attacker65'
23
Gustavo Furtado
Gustavo Furtado Attacker
7
Anton Zinkovskiy
Anton Zinkovskiy
Midfielder65'
Referee : Nikita Novikov

Starting XI ▼

38
Evgeniy Staver
Evgeniy Staver Goalkeeper
2
Egor Teslenko
Egor Teslenko Defender
5
Igor Vujacic
Igor Vujacic Defender
27
Aleksey Gritsaenko
Aleksey Gritsaenko Defender
7
Ignacio Saavedra
Ignacio Saavedra Midfielder
19
Oleg Ivanov
Oleg Ivanov
Midfielder82'
12
Anderson Arroyo
Anderson Arroyo Midfielder
14
Daler Kuzyaev
Daler Kuzyaev Midfielder
43
Jacques Siwe
Jacques Siwe
Attacker46'
51
Ilya Rozhkov
Ilya Rozhkov Midfielder
4
Konstantin Nizhegorodov
Konstantin Nizhegorodov
Defender73'
11
Nazmi Gripshi
Nazmi Gripshi Attacker
70
Dmitriy Kabutov
Dmitriy Kabutov
Defender82'
22
Veldin Hodza
Veldin Hodza Attacker
23
Ruslan Bezrukov
Ruslan Bezrukov Attacker
10
Mirlind Daku
Mirlind Daku
Attacker68'

Events

2ND-HALF
90+5'
Event
Mirlind Daku
Time wasting / 4th Yellowcard
90+4'
Event
Veldin Hodza
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
Event
François Kamano → Sergey Volkov
10th Substitution
88'
82'
Event
Oleg Ivanov → Ignacio Saavedra
8th Substitution
82'
Event
Dmitriy Kabutov → Nazmi Gripshi
9th Substitution
Event
Artem Makarchuk → Maksim Mukhin
7th Substitution
75'
Event
Martin Kramaric → Kirill Zaika
6th Substitution
75'
73'
Event
Konstantin Nizhegorodov → Ilya Rozhkov
5th Substitution
Event
Maksim Mukhin
Argument / 2nd Yellowcard
72'
Event
A. Kovalenko
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
70'
68'
Event
Mirlind Daku → Ruslan Bezrukov
4th Substitution
Event
Vladimir Iljin → Zakhar Fedorov
2nd Substitution
65'
Event
Anton Zinkovskiy → Gustavo Furtado
3rd Substitution
65'
46'
Event
Jacques Siwe → Daler Kuzyaev
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
19'
Event
Ruslan Bezrukov
Right foot shot / 1st Goal

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Rubin Kazan exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

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