SK Poltava vs Oleksandria Prediction, Preview and Stats

Ukraine flag 2025/2026 Premier League, Ukraine
Stadion Zirka Fri, 3 Apr - 12:30 PM
Premier League
SK Poltava SK Poltava
3 – 3
Oleksandria Oleksandria
Full Time Fri, 3 Apr 12:30 PM
Round 22 Regular Season
A. Doroshenko - 40'
Bogdan Kobzar - 60'
Dmytro Plakhtyr - 72'
Goal
|
Goal
Bryan Castillo - 7'
Mateus Amaral - 31', 37'

CONTEXT

The match between SK Poltava and Oleksandria has finished, concluding in a thrilling 3-3 draw. Oleksandria initially looked poised for a comfortable victory after taking a commanding 3-1 lead into the halftime break, but the hosts mounted a resilient second-half comeback to level the scoreline. This result failed to align with pre-match market expectations, which heavily favored the stronger away side. Oleksandria entered the contest with a 53.3% win probability, compared to SK Poltava's 21.6% and a 25.2% chance of a draw. Consequently, the stalemate constitutes a significant deviation from what was anticipated, acting as a notable setback for Oleksandria. In terms of match flow, SK Poltava dictated much of the play, finishing with a majority 56% possession compared to Oleksandria's 44%. While expected goals (xG) data was unavailable to determine if the final outcome truly aligned with the quality of chances created, the overall finishing efficiency shift was in line with standard play. Furthermore, the match remained a fair contest without major disciplinary disruptions, as no red cards were issued to either side.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Oleksandria showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
D. Reznikov
D. Reznikov
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 14.47
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.35
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.09
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.18
D. Podvalnyi
D. Podvalnyi
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 14.47
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.35
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.09
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.18
A. Likarenko
A. Likarenko
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 14.47
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.35
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.09
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.18
L. Telbukh
L. Telbukh
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 14.47
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.35
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.09
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.18
SK Poltava P. Matviychenko
P. Matviychenko
VS
Oleksandria V. Sharan
V. Sharan
0.36
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0.36
0 i
Last 6 Opponents
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv Rank: 49 L
Karpaty Rank: 48 L
Zorya Luhansk Rank: 52 L
Kudrivka Rank: 43 L
Veres Rank: 46 L
Rukh Vynnyky Rank: 45 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Dynamo Kyiv Rank: 66 L
LNZ Cherkasy Rank: 56 L
Shakhtar Donetsk Rank: 73 L
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv Rank: 50 L
Obolon'-Brovar Rank: 42 D
Kudrivka Rank: 43 D
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 0 - 1
1

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home SK Poltava
21.56%
Draw
25.16%
Away Oleksandria
53.28%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
35.87
46.34
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
SK Poltava
Oleksandria
Power Score
35.87
46.34
League Position
16
15
Global Rank
1139
859

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
SK Poltava — Opponent-weighted form score
Oleksandria — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) SK Poltava Oleksandria

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

SK Poltava

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Oleksandria

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

SK Poltava ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Oleksandria
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
12.86
26.02
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
26.02
12.86
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
SK Poltava -1.28 Efficiency Index
vs
Oleksandria +1.28 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
SK Poltava
Oleksandria
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

SK Poltava ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Oleksandria
Created Set-piece attacking threat
SK Poltava Oleksandria
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
SK Poltava Oleksandria
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
SK Poltava
Oleksandria
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
SK Poltava
vs
Oleksandria
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
SK Poltava Oleksandria
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
SK Poltava 0.25
Oleksandria 0.18
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
SK Poltava Oleksandria
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
SK Poltava 0.06
Oleksandria 0.13
SK Poltava
Oleksandria
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 1 match between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

SK Poltava SK Poltava Home
1 matches
Oleksandria Oleksandria Away
Match Record
0
Wins
1
0
Draws
0
1
Losses
0
Goals
0
Goals Scored
1
1
Goals Conceded
0
-1
Goal Difference
+1
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-04T00:01:57+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-4-2
Match Formation 4-1-4-1
Pitch
M. Minchev
Ukraine
1 M. Minchev
I. Ukhan
Ukraine
24 I. Ukhan
A. Savenkov
Ukraine
12 A. Savenkov
E. Misyura
Ukraine
20 E. Misyura
I. Kotsyumaka
Ukraine
95 I. Kotsyumaka
V. Odariuk
Substitution
Ukraine
8 V. Odariuk
A. Doroshenko
Ukraine
21 A. Doroshenko
V. Danilenko
Substitution
Ukraine
15 V. Danilenko
M. Kononov
Ukraine
2 M. Kononov
O. Vivdych
Substitution
Ukraine
88 O. Vivdych
D. Sukhoruchko
Ukraine
38 D. Sukhoruchko
V. Dolgyi
Ukraine
1 V. Dolgyi
M. Ogarkov
Ukraine
23 M. Ogarkov
A. Bol
Ukraine
86 A. Bol
M. Ferreira Campos
Portugal
26 M. Ferreira Campos
B. Butko
Substitution
Ukraine
91 B. Butko
D. Vashchenko
Ukraine
20 D. Vashchenko
A. Shulianskyi
Substitution
Ukraine
11 A. Shulianskyi
D. Myshnov
Ukraine
9 D. Myshnov
M. Ferreira Guimarães
Substitution
49 M. Ferreira Guimarães
T. Cara
Albania
27 T. Cara
B. Castillo Rosendo
Substitution
Venezuela
99 B. Castillo Rosendo

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 03, 2026, 12:30 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Premier League, Ukraine · Round 22 · Regular Season
Stadium
Stadion Zirka
Capacity
13667
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ , Clear
Referees
Denis Reznikov
Dmytro Podvalnyi
Andrii Likarenko
Lyudmila Telbukh

Statistics

Possession
SK Poltava
47%
Oleksandria
53%

Top Statistics

3 Goals 3
0 Shots 5
24 Dangerous attacks 49
56 Possession 44
2 Corners 9
2 Yellow Cards 0

Match Overview

12 Goal Kicks 7
1 Assists 3
3 Substitutions 5

Attacking

91 Attacks 99

Defensive

1 Saves 3

Discipline

16 Fouls 14

Lineup

Referee : Denis Reznikov

Starting XI ▼

1
Mykyta Minchev
Mykyta Minchev Goalkeeper
2
Mykyta Kononov
Mykyta Kononov Defender
12
Andriy Savenkov
Andriy Savenkov Defender
20
Yevgen Misyura
Yevgen Misyura Defender
24
Ilya Ukhan
Ilya Ukhan Defender
95
Igor Kotsyumaka
Igor Kotsyumaka Defender
8
Volodymyr Odaryuk
Volodymyr Odaryuk Midfielder
19
Mykola Buzhyn
Mykola Buzhyn
Defender80'
15
Vladyslav Danylenko
Vladyslav Danylenko Midfielder
44
Dmytro Plakhtyr
Dmytro Plakhtyr
Midfielder58'
21
A. Doroshenko
A. Doroshenko Midfielder
38
Danyil Sukhoruchko
Danyil Sukhoruchko Attacker
88
Oleksandr Vivdych
Oleksandr Vivdych Attacker
93
Bogdan Kobzar
Bogdan Kobzar
Attacker58'
Referee : Denis Reznikov

Starting XI ▼

1
Viktor Dolgyi
Viktor Dolgyi Goalkeeper
23
Mykola Ogarkov
Mykola Ogarkov Defender
26
Miguel Campos
Miguel Campos Defender
86
Anton Bol
Anton Bol Defender
91
Bogdan Butko
Bogdan Butko Defender
22
Danil Skorko
Danil Skorko
Defender8'
9
Dmytro Myshnyov
Dmytro Myshnyov Midfielder
11
Artem Shulyanskyi
Artem Shulyanskyi Midfielder
67
Mauro Rodrigues
Mauro Rodrigues
Midfielder64'
20
Daniil Vashchenko
Daniil Vashchenko Midfielder
27
Tedi Cara
Tedi Cara Midfielder
49
Mateus Amaral
Mateus Amaral Midfielder
2
77
Dmytrii Kremchanin
Dmytrii Kremchanin
Attacker79'
99
Bryan Castillo
Bryan Castillo Attacker
37
Papa Ndiaga Yade
Papa Ndiaga Yade
Midfielder79'

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Bogdan Kobzar
2nd Yellowcard
89'
Event
Mykola Buzhyn → Volodymyr Odaryuk
7th Substitution
80'
79'
Event
Dmytrii Kremchanin → Mateus Amaral
5th Substitution
79'
Event
Papa Ndiaga Yade → Bryan Castillo
6th Substitution
Event
Dmytro Plakhtyr
Right foot shot / 6th Goal
72'
64'
Event
Mauro Rodrigues → Artem Shulyanskyi
4th Substitution
Event
Bogdan Kobzar
Right foot shot / 5th Goal
60'
Event
Bogdan Kobzar → Oleksandr Vivdych
2nd Substitution
58'
Event
Dmytro Plakhtyr → Vladyslav Danylenko
3rd Substitution
58'
1ST-HALF
Event
A. Doroshenko
Right foot shot / 4th Goal
40'
37'
Event
Mateus Amaral
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
31'
Event
Mateus Amaral
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
Event
Andriy Savenkov
1st Yellowcard
17'
8'
Event
Danil Skorko → Bogdan Butko
1st Substitution
7'
Event
Bryan Castillo
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
Event
3rd Yellowcard
4'

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Oleksandria exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

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