SD Eibar vs Ceuta Prediction, Preview and Stats

Spain flag 2025/2026 La Liga 2, Spain
Estadio Municipal de Ipurúa Sun, 5 Apr - 12:00 PM
La Liga 2
SD Eibar EIB
3 Winner 0
Ceuta Ceuta
Full Time Sun, 5 Apr 12:00 PM
Round 34 Regular Season
Javi Martón - 12' (P)
Carlos Hernández - 52' (Own Goal)
Jon Bautista - 70'
Goal
|

CONTEXT

SD Eibar has finished their match against Ceuta, securing a decisive 3-0 full-time victory. The home side took control early, entering the halftime break with a 1-0 lead before adding two more goals in the second half. This result fully aligned with pre-match market expectations, as SD Eibar entered the fixture as the stronger team with a 61.5% probability of winning, compared to Ceuta's 14.6% chance and a 24% probability of a draw. Ultimately, the victory produced a significant deviation level of 38.5% favoring SD Eibar. Despite the lopsided final scoreline, the flow of play was surprisingly balanced, with ball possession evenly split at 50% for both SD Eibar and Ceuta. Expected goals (xG) metrics were not available for this fixture, meaning an assessment of whether the outcome was consistent with xG cannot be determined. However, the overall efficiency shift was directly in line with standard expectations. The match concluded without any major disciplinary events, as neither team received a red card to impact the run of play. SD Eibar cleanly executed their game plan, fully living up to market forecasts and securing a dominant home win.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: SD Eibar showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
M. Huerta de Aza
M. Huerta de Aza
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 19.49
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 4.46
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.14
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.32
?. Carreño Cabrera
?. Carreño Cabrera
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 19.49
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 4.46
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.14
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.32
J. García Urbaneja
J. García Urbaneja
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 19.49
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 4.46
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.14
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.32
A. Ramo Andrés
A. Ramo Andrés
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 19.49
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 4.46
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.14
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.32
SD Eibar B. San José Gil
B. San José Gil
VS
Ceuta J. Romero Gil
J. Romero Gil
1.6
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.48
2.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Real Sociedad II Rank: 62 W
Las Palmas Rank: 69 W
FC Andorra Rank: 61 W
Burgos Rank: 65 D
Leganés Rank: 65 W
Cádiz Rank: 58 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Burgos Rank: 67 D
Cádiz Rank: 61 W
Leganés Rank: 65 L
Deportivo La Coruña Rank: 66 L
Las Palmas Rank: 71 L
Mirandés Rank: 59 W
1
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
1 - 0 - 1
1

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home SD Eibar
61.48%
Draw
23.96%
Away Ceuta
14.56%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
69.32
55.94
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
SD Eibar
Ceuta
Power Score
69.32
55.94
League Position
8
9
Global Rank
205
465

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
SD Eibar — Opponent-weighted form score
Ceuta — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) SD Eibar Ceuta

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

SD Eibar

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Ceuta

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

SD Eibar ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Ceuta
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
30.70
15.20
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
15.20
30.70
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
SD Eibar +1.57 Efficiency Index
vs
Ceuta -1.57 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
SD Eibar
Ceuta
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

SD Eibar ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Ceuta
Created Set-piece attacking threat
SD Eibar Ceuta
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
1.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
SD Eibar Ceuta
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 1.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
SD Eibar
Ceuta
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
SD Eibar
vs
Ceuta
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
SD Eibar Ceuta
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
SD Eibar 0.28
Ceuta 0.19
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
SD Eibar Ceuta
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
SD Eibar 0.00
Ceuta 0.06
SD Eibar
Ceuta
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 2 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

SD Eibar EIB Home
2 matches
Ceuta Ceuta Away
Match Record
1
Wins
1
0
Draws
0
1
Losses
1
Goals
1
Goals Scored
1
1
Goals Conceded
1
0
Goal Difference
0
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-06T00:02:39+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-3-3
Pitch
J. Magunagoitia Blasco
Spain
13 J. Magunagoitia Blasco
Á. Rodríguez Pérez
Spain
22 Á. Rodríguez Pérez
P. Nolaskoain Esnal
Substitution
Spain
8 P. Nolaskoain Esnal
J. Amador Silos
Portugal
15 J. Amador Silos
A. Arbilla Zabala
Spain
23 A. Arbilla Zabala
S. Álvarez Díaz
Substitution
Spain
6 S. Álvarez Díaz
A. Madariaga Susaeta
Substitution
Spain
16 A. Madariaga Susaeta
M. Ares Djalo
Spain
18 M. Ares Djalo
J. Martón Ansó
Substitution
Spain
20 J. Martón Ansó
J. Corpas Serna
Substitution
Spain
17 J. Corpas Serna
J. Bautista Orgilles
Spain
9 J. Bautista Orgilles
P. López Galisteo
Spain
1 P. López Galisteo
C. Redruello Nimo
Spain
16 C. Redruello Nimo
D. González Cabanes
Spain
15 D. González Cabanes
C. Hernández Alarcón
Spain
6 C. Hernández Alarcón
G. Almenara Hernández
Substitution
Spain
17 G. Almenara Hernández
J. Gómez Campaña
Substitution
Spain
20 J. Gómez Campaña
Y. Didi
Substitution
Morocco
5 Y. Didi
M. Illescas Montaño
Substitution
Spain
12 M. Illescas Montaño
K. Kone
Substitution
Kenya
22 K. Kone
M. Fernández Sánchez
Spain
9 M. Fernández Sánchez
A. Ahmed Ahmed
Spain
7 A. Ahmed Ahmed

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 05, 2026, 12:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 La Liga 2, Spain · Round 34 · Regular Season
Stadium
Estadio Municipal de Ipurúa
Capacity
8164
Attendance
3195
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Marta Huerta de Aza
Álvaro Yeray Carreño Cabrera
José Unai García Urbaneja
Armando Ramo Andrés

Statistics

Possession
EIB
51%
Ceuta
49%

Top Statistics

3 Goals 0
3 Big Chances Created 0
3 Shots 5
47 Dangerous attacks 32
50 Possession 50
6 Corners 2
12 Free kicks 14
2 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

3 Successful Dribbles 4
13 Dribble Attempts 6
1 Assists 0
5 Substitutions 5
9 Goal Attempts 5
79 Ball Safe 83
19 Throwins 18
23 Successful Dribbles Percentage 67
10 Goal Kicks 7
1 Penalties 0

Attacking

1 Big Chances Missed 0
96 Attacks 86

Possession

8 Key Passes 4
63 Successful Long Passes Percentage 32
34 Successful Long Passes 14
452 Passes 467
84 Successful Passes Percentage 81
54 Long Passes 44
381 Successful Passes 378

Defensive

1 Saves 4
34 Duels Won 41
13 Interceptions 8
9 Tackles 16

Build-up

3 Accurate Crosses 3
17 Total Crosses 10

Discipline

4 Offsides 3
14 Fouls 13

Lineup

Referee : Marta Huerta de Aza

Starting XI ▼

13
Jonmi Magunagoitia
Jonmi Magunagoitia Goalkeeper
8
Peru Nolaskoain
Peru Nolaskoain Defender
24
Juan Bernat
Juan Bernat
Defender80'
15
Jair Amador
Jair Amador Defender
22
Álvaro Rodríguez
Álvaro Rodríguez Defender
23
Anaitz Arbilla
Anaitz Arbilla Defender
6
Sergio Álvarez
Sergio Álvarez Midfielder
5
Javi Martínez
Javi Martínez
Midfielder62'
16
Ander Madariaga
Ander Madariaga Midfielder
11
Jon Magunazelaia
Jon Magunazelaia
Midfielder72'
17
José Corpas
José Corpas Midfielder
10
Jon Guruzeta
Jon Guruzeta
Midfielder72'
18
Adu Ares
Adu Ares Midfielder
20
Javi Martón
Javi Martón Midfielder
30
Aleix Garrido
Aleix Garrido
Midfielder62'
9
Jon Bautista
Jon Bautista Attacker
Referee : Marta Huerta de Aza

Starting XI ▼

1
Pedro López
Pedro López Goalkeeper
6
Carlos Hernández
Carlos Hernández Defender
15
Diego González
Diego González Defender
16
Carlos Redru
Carlos Redru Defender
17
Gonzalo Almenara
Gonzalo Almenara Defender
8
Kuki Zalazar
Kuki Zalazar
Attacker62'
5
Youness Lachhab
Youness Lachhab Midfielder
14
Yann Bodiger
Yann Bodiger
Midfielder76'
12
Marino Illescas
Marino Illescas Midfielder
34
Arick Betancourt
Arick Betancourt
Midfielder80'
20
José Campaña
José Campaña Midfielder
18
Konrad de la Fuente
Konrad de la Fuente
Attacker62'
7
Aisar Ahmed
Aisar Ahmed Attacker
9
Marcos Fernández
Marcos Fernández Attacker
22
Kialy Abdoul Kone
Kialy Abdoul Kone Attacker
26
Aboubacar Bassinga
Aboubacar Bassinga
Midfielder75'

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Juan Bernat → Peru Nolaskoain
9th Substitution
80'
80'
Event
Arick Betancourt → Marino Illescas
10th Substitution
76'
Event
Yann Bodiger → Youness Lachhab
8th Substitution
75'
Event
Aboubacar Bassinga → Kialy Abdoul Kone
7th Substitution
Event
Jon Magunazelaia → Ander Madariaga
6th Substitution
72'
Event
Jon Guruzeta → José Corpas
5th Substitution
72'
Event
Jon Bautista
Left foot shot / 1st Goal
70'
69'
Event
Youness Lachhab
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
Event
Aleix Garrido → Javi Martón
2nd Substitution
62'
Event
Javi Martínez → Sergio Álvarez
3rd Substitution
62'
62'
Event
Konrad de la Fuente → José Campaña
1st Substitution
62'
Event
Kuki Zalazar → Gonzalo Almenara
4th Substitution
Event
José Corpas
Penalty disallowed
61'
Event
Sergio Álvarez
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
55'
Event
Carlos Hernández
Header / 1st Own Goal
52'
1ST-HALF
Event
Adu Ares
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
43'
Event
Jair Amador
Goal disallowed
33'
Event
Javi Martón
Right foot shot / 1st Penalty
12'
11'
Event
Pedro López
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
Event
Jair Amador
Penalty awarded
10'

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: SD Eibar exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

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