Rukh Vynnyky vs LNZ Cherkasy Prediction, Preview and Stats

Ukraine flag 2025/2026 Premier League, Ukraine
Arena L'viv Sat, 21 Mar - 1:30 PM
Premier League
Rukh Vynnyky Rukh Vynnyky
1 Winner 2
LNZ Cherkasy LNZ Cherkasy
Full Time Sat, 21 Mar 1:30 PM
Round 21 Regular Season
Vitaliy Roman - 45+2'
Goal
|
Goal
Gennadiy Pasich - 63'
Danylo Kravchuk - 82'

CONTEXT

The match has finished with LNZ Cherkasy securing a 2-1 comeback victory over Rukh Vynnyky. The home side initially took control of the contest, leading 1-0 at halftime, but LNZ Cherkasy turned the game around in the second half to claim the win. This outcome directly aligned with the pre-match market, which favored the away side with a 56.8% win probability, compared to 30.1% for a draw and just 13.1% for a Rukh Vynnyky victory. Despite LNZ Cherkasy being the stronger team and fulfilling expectations, the result represented a significant deviation level of 43.2% based on the pre-match odds. Play was tightly contested in the middle of the park, reflected by LNZ Cherkasy holding a very narrow possession advantage of 51% against Rukh Vynnyky's 49%. While expected goals (xG) data was not available to determine if the final score strictly aligned with the quality of chances created, the overall efficiency shift was in line with the team performances. Additionally, the match remained a disciplined 11-on-11 affair throughout, with no red cards issued to disrupt either side's tactical setup.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: LNZ Cherkasy showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
No referee statistics available.
Rukh Vynnyky I. Fedyk
I. Fedyk
VS
LNZ Cherkasy V. Ponomarov
V. Ponomarov
1.07
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
2.47
1 i
Last 6 Opponents
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi Rank: 45 L
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv Rank: 47 L
Obolon'-Brovar Rank: 43 L
Dynamo Kyiv Rank: 67 L
SK Poltava Rank: 34 W
Polissya Zhytomyr Rank: 62 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Oleksandria Rank: 48 W
Veres Rank: 47 W
Polissya Zhytomyr Rank: 62 L
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi Rank: 46 W
Zorya Luhansk Rank: 52 W
Obolon'-Brovar Rank: 43 W
1
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
1 - 0 - 4
4

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Rukh Vynnyky
13.11%
Draw
30.06%
Away LNZ Cherkasy
56.84%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
45.69
57.6
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Rukh Vynnyky
LNZ Cherkasy
Power Score
45.69
57.6
League Position
14
1
Global Rank
882
558

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Rukh Vynnyky — Opponent-weighted form score
LNZ Cherkasy — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Rukh Vynnyky LNZ Cherkasy

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Rukh Vynnyky

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

LNZ Cherkasy

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Rukh Vynnyky ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy LNZ Cherkasy
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
22.86
22.06
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
22.06
22.86
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Rukh Vynnyky +0.08 Efficiency Index
vs
LNZ Cherkasy -0.08 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Rukh Vynnyky
LNZ Cherkasy
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Rukh Vynnyky ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy LNZ Cherkasy
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Rukh Vynnyky LNZ Cherkasy
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Rukh Vynnyky LNZ Cherkasy
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Rukh Vynnyky
LNZ Cherkasy
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 5 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Rukh Vynnyky Rukh Vynnyky Home
5 matches
LNZ Cherkasy LNZ Cherkasy Away
Match Record
1
Wins
4
0
Draws
0
4
Losses
1
Goals
3
Goals Scored
7
7
Goals Conceded
3
-4
Goal Difference
+4
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-03-27T12:21:35+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-1-4-1
Match Formation 4-5-1
Pitch
Y. Gereta
Ukraine
1 Y. Gereta
V. Roman
Ukraine
93 V. Roman
D. Pidgurskyi
Ukraine
15 (C) D. Pidgurskyi
O. Tovarnytskyi
Ukraine
76 O. Tovarnytskyi
A. Kitela
Ukraine
75 A. Kitela
M. Boyko
Ukraine
56 M. Boyko
S. Diallo
Substitution
Senegal
14 S. Diallo
O. Prytula
Ukraine
10 O. Prytula
T. Brener de Paula
Substitution
Brazil
30 T. Brener de Paula
K. dos Santos Chrispim
Substitution
Brazil
7 K. dos Santos Chrispim
L.Jorge Alexandrino de Lima
Substitution
Brazil
21 L.Jorge Alexandrino de Lima
O. Palamarchuk
Ukraine
12 O. Palamarchuk
A. Drambayev
Ukraine
14 A. Drambayev
R. Didyk
Ukraine
29 (C) R. Didyk
O. Gorin
Ukraine
25 O. Gorin
I. Putria
Substitution
Ukraine
33 I. Putria
A. Mykytyshyn
Substitution
Ukraine
7 A. Mykytyshyn
D. Kuzyk
Ukraine
17 D. Kuzyk
V. Tankovskiy
Substitution
Ukraine
6 V. Tankovskiy
A. Ryabov
Ukraine
16 A. Ryabov
Y. Pastukh
Substitution
Ukraine
19 Y. Pastukh
A. Awudu
Substitution
Ghana
18 A. Awudu

General Information

Date & Time
Mar 21, 2026, 01:30 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Premier League, Ukraine · Round 21 · Regular Season
Stadium
Arena L'viv
Capacity
34915
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Viktor Kopievskiy
Viktor Nyzhnyk
Maksim Firsov
Igor Debenko

Statistics

Possession
Rukh Vynnyky
52%
LNZ Cherkasy
48%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 2
10 Shots 9
24 Dangerous attacks 45
49 Possession 51
0 Corners 5
2 Free kicks 0
5 Yellow Cards 0

Match Overview

11 Goal Kicks 3
4 Substitutions 5
24 Throwins 29
11 Successful Dribbles 13
1 Hit Woodwork 0
18 Dribble Attempts 23
61 Successful Dribbles Percentage 57

Attacking

84 Attacks 88

Possession

329 Successful Passes 276
404 Passes 361
73 Long Passes 58
81 Successful Passes Percentage 76
62 Successful Long Passes Percentage 48
45 Successful Long Passes 28

Defensive

4 Saves 2
1 Tackles 3
15 Interceptions 19

Build-up

3 Accurate Crosses 5
4 Total Crosses 16

Discipline

10 Fouls 8
1 Offsides 2

Lineup

Referee : Viktor Kopievskiy

Starting XI ▼

1
Yuriy-Volodymyr Gereta
Yuriy-Volodymyr Gereta Goalkeeper
6.82
15
Denys Pidgurskyi
Denys Pidgurskyi (C) Defender
6.54
75
Andriy Kitela
Andriy Kitela Defender
6.85
76
Oleksiy Tovarnytskyi
Oleksiy Tovarnytskyi Defender
6.42
93
Vitaliy Roman
Vitaliy Roman Defender
7.98
7
Klayver
Klayver Midfielder
6.09
47
Kostyantyn Kvas
Kostyantyn Kvas
Midfielder88'
6.42
10
Ostap Prytula
Ostap Prytula Midfielder
6.5
14
Samba Diallo
Samba Diallo Midfielder
6.82
11
Vasyl Runich
Vasyl Runich
Midfielder69'
6.43
30
Talles
Talles Midfielder
6.89
8
Vlad Raileanu
Vlad Raileanu
Midfielder83'
56
Maksym Boyko
Maksym Boyko Midfielder
6.85
21
Luiz Jorge Alexandrino de Lima
Luiz Jorge Alexandrino de Lima Attacker
6.02
9
Igor Neves
Igor Neves
Attacker69'
6.6
Referee : Viktor Kopievskiy

Starting XI ▼

12
Oleksiy Palamarchuk
Oleksiy Palamarchuk Goalkeeper
6.48
14
Oleksandr Drambayev
Oleksandr Drambayev Defender
6.67
25
Oleg Gorin
Oleg Gorin Defender
7.68
29
Roman Didyk
Roman Didyk (C) Defender
7.25
33
Ilya Putrya
Ilya Putrya Defender
6.39
27
Jewison Bennette
Jewison Bennette
Midfielder73'
6.34
6
Vyacheslav Tankovskyi
Vyacheslav Tankovskyi Midfielder
6.56
5
Shota Nonikashvili
Shota Nonikashvili
Midfielder46'
6.93
7
Artur Mykytyshyn
Artur Mykytyshyn Midfielder
6.33
23
Danylo Kravchuk
Danylo Kravchuk
Attacker58'
7.28
16
Artur Ryabov
Artur Ryabov Midfielder
7.1
17
Denys Kuzyk
Denys Kuzyk Midfielder
6.33
19
Yevgeniy Pastukh
Yevgeniy Pastukh Midfielder
6.22
11
Gennadiy Pasich
Gennadiy Pasich
Midfielder58'
7.19
18
Abdul Awudu
Abdul Awudu Attacker
6.54
22
Yegor Tverdokhlib
Yegor Tverdokhlib
Attacker6'
6.61

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Igor Neves
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
89'
Event
Kostyantyn Kvas → Klayver
9th Substitution
88'
Event
Vlad Raileanu → Talles
8th Substitution
83'
82'
Event
Danylo Kravchuk
Field Goal / 3rd Goal
73'
Event
Jewison Bennette → Ilya Putrya
7th Substitution
Event
Vasyl Runich → Samba Diallo 
6th Substitution
69'
Event
Igor Neves → Luiz Jorge Alexandrino de Lima
5th Substitution
69'
Event
Andriy Kitela
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
68'
Event
Ostap Prytula
Argument / 3rd Yellowcard
64'
63'
Event
Gennadiy Pasich
Field Goal / 2nd Goal
58'
Event
Danylo Kravchuk → Artur Mykytyshyn
3rd Substitution
58'
Event
Gennadiy Pasich → Yevgeniy Pastukh
4th Substitution
46'
Event
Shota Nonikashvili → Vyacheslav Tankovskyi
2nd Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Vitaliy Roman
Field Goal / 1st Goal
45+2'
Event
Talles
Argument / 2nd Yellowcard
42'
Event
Luiz Jorge Alexandrino de Lima
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
22'
6'
Event
Yegor Tverdokhlib → Abdul Awudu
1st Substitution

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: LNZ Cherkasy exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

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