Rio Ave vs Alverca Prediction, Preview and Stats
2025/2026 Liga Portugal, Portugal
Liga Portugal
Alverca
Alverca
STANDINGS
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
CONTEXT
The match has finished, with Alverca securing a 2-1 victory over Rio Ave at full-time. The visiting side took control early on, establishing a comfortable 2-0 lead by the halftime whistle. Rio Ave managed to pull one goal back in the second half but ultimately fell short. Despite suffering the home defeat, Rio Ave held a narrow advantage in possession, controlling 52 percent of the ball compared to Alverca's 48 percent. Pre-match expectations were tightly contested, giving Rio Ave a 34.2 percent win probability and Alverca a slight edge at 37.1 percent, alongside a 28.7 percent chance of a draw. Because Alverca entered the fixture as marginal favorites, the final outcome completely aligned with the pre-match market. Even so, Alverca generated a significant positive deviation of 62.9 percent to claim the away triumph. Expected goals (xG) data was unavailable for this fixture, making it impossible to evaluate if the result was consistent with the underlying chance creation. However, the overall finishing efficiency shift was strictly in line with the match dynamics. Additionally, the game featured zero red cards, allowing the 2-1 result to unfold naturally without major disciplinary disruptions.
TL;DR
-
Structural deviation: Alverca showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
-
Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
-
xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
-
Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
-
xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
-
Event impact: No major event distortion.
-
Red card distortion: None.
Quality vs Volume
Open Play vs Set Play
Expected Points
| Team | xPts |
|---|---|
| Home | 1.8 |
| Away | 1.2 |
Win Probabilities
Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Rio Ave
Alverca
Team Power Ranking
i
64.09
56.66
Rio Ave
Alverca
Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted
Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.
Heatmaps Ball coordinates
Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.
Rio Ave
Alverca
Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted
How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage
Rio Ave
⚠ Proxy
Attacking Efficiency
Defensive Efficiency
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence
Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.
Rio Ave
⚠ Proxy
Rio Ave
Alverca
Rio Ave
Alverca
Counter / Transition Attack & Defence
What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.
Rio Ave
Rio Ave
Alverca
Rio Ave
Alverca
Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons
Summary of 1 match between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.
Match Record
Goals
Expected Goals
Data last updated: 2026-04-05T00:06:35+00:00
STARTING XI




















































General Information
Next Match
Rio Ave
vs
Santa Clara
League: Liga Portugal
Kickoff: Sat, 11 Apr - 5:00 PM
Venue: Away
Alverca
vs
Casa Pia
League: Liga Portugal
Kickoff: Sun, 12 Apr - 2:30 PM
Venue: Home
Statistics
Top Statistics
Match Overview
Attacking
Possession
Defensive
Build-up
Discipline
Lineup
Manager ▼
Starting XI ▼
















Substitutes ▼




Manager ▼
Starting XI ▼















Substitutes ▼





Match Commentary