Real Zaragoza vs Racing Santander Prediction, Preview and Stats

Spain flag 2025/2026 La Liga 2, Spain
Estadio de la Romareda Sun, 29 Mar - 4:30 PM
La Liga 2
Real Zaragoza ZAR
2 Winner 0
Racing Santander RAC
Full Time Sun, 29 Mar 4:30 PM
Round 32 Regular Season
Dani Gómez - 74'
Marco Sangalli - 87' (Own Goal)
Goal
|

CONTEXT

The match has officially finished, with Real Zaragoza securing a 2-0 full-time victory over Racing Santander. Following a balanced first half that ended evenly at 0-0, the home side successfully converted their chances after the break to claim the win. Prior to kickoff, Racing Santander was viewed as the stronger team. The pre-match market gave Real Zaragoza a 38.4% implied win probability, compared to a 33.1% chance for an away win and 28.6% for a draw. Real Zaragoza pulling off the win resulted in a significant deviation level of 61.6%. Despite this significant deviation from the stronger team's baseline, the final outcome remained completely aligned with the pre-match market. Racing Santander dictated the flow of play with 61% possession, forcing Real Zaragoza to operate without the ball at a 39% clip. Because expected goals (xG) data was unavailable, it cannot be determined if the final scoreline was consistent with the xG differential. However, overall efficiency shifted strictly in line with expectations. The fixture was played cleanly with zero red cards issued, ensuring neither team suffered a numerical disadvantage.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Real Zaragoza showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
No referee statistics available.
Real Zaragoza D. Navarro Arenaz
D. Navarro Arenaz
VS
Racing Santander J. López Menéndez
J. López Menéndez
1.04
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.9
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Almería Rank: 70 W
Cádiz Rank: 61 W
Burgos Rank: 67 L
FC Andorra Rank: 60 L
Cultural Leonesa Rank: 57 D
SD Eibar Rank: 68 D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2 i
Last 6 Opponents
Castellón Rank: 65 W
Burgos Rank: 67 W
SD Eibar Rank: 68 L
Mirandés Rank: 58 W
Granada Rank: 67 L
Deportivo La Coruña Rank: 67 W
8
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
8 - 11 - 6
6

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Real Zaragoza
38.35%
Draw
28.57%
Away Racing Santander
33.08%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
60.2
69.33
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Real Zaragoza
Racing Santander
Power Score
60.2
69.33
League Position
19
1
Global Rank
458
200

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Real Zaragoza — Opponent-weighted form score
Racing Santander — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Real Zaragoza Racing Santander

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Real Zaragoza

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Racing Santander

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Real Zaragoza ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Racing Santander
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
40.90
15.41
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
15.41
40.90
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Real Zaragoza +2.57 Efficiency Index
vs
Racing Santander -2.57 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Real Zaragoza
Racing Santander
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Real Zaragoza ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Racing Santander
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Real Zaragoza Racing Santander
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Real Zaragoza Racing Santander
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Real Zaragoza
Racing Santander
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 25 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Real Zaragoza ZAR Home
25 matches
Racing Santander RAC Away
Match Record
8
Wins
6
11
Draws
11
6
Losses
8
Goals
34
Goals Scored
29
29
Goals Conceded
34
+5
Goal Difference
-5
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-03-30T00:00:37+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
E. Andrada
Argentina
1 E. Andrada
M. Aguirregabiria Padilla
Spain
20 M. Aguirregabiria Padilla
P. Ínsua Blanco
Spain
4 P. Ínsua Blanco
J. El Yamiq
Morocco
18 J. El Yamiq
J. Larios López
Spain
27 J. Larios López
Y. Saidu
Substitution
33 Y. Saidu
K. Bare
Albania
6 K. Bare
F. Gracia
Spain
14 F. Gracia
R. González Bayón
Substitution
Spain
11 R. González Bayón
H. Pinilla Ruiz
Substitution
31 H. Pinilla Ruiz
D. Gómez Alcón
Substitution
Spain
9 D. Gómez Alcón
J. Ezkieta Mendiburu
Spain
1 J. Ezkieta Mendiburu
M. García Alvear
Spain
3 M. García Alvear
F. González Molino
Uruguay
16 F. González Molino
J. Hernando Riol
Spain
4 J. Hernando Riol
J. Castro Urdín
Substitution
Spain
5 J. Castro Urdín
Í. Sainz Maza Serna
Substitution
Spain
6 Í. Sainz Maza Serna
D. Rodríguez Sousa
Spain
23 D. Rodríguez Sousa
I. Vicente Elorduy
Spain
10 I. Vicente Elorduy
A. Aldasoro Sarriegi
Substitution
Spain
8 A. Aldasoro Sarriegi
A. Martín García
Spain
11 A. Martín García
S. Franco de la Torre
Substitution
Spain
43 S. Franco de la Torre

General Information

Date & Time
Mar 29, 2026, 04:30 PM
Competition
2025/2026 La Liga 2, Spain · Round 32 · Regular Season
Stadium
Estadio de la Romareda
Capacity
33608
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ , Clear
Referees
Jon Ander González Esteban
David Pérez de Colosía Alonso
Luis Miguel Marín Robles
Juan Antonio Manrique Antequera

Statistics

Possession
ZAR
43%
RAC
57%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 0
2 Big Chances Created 0
4 Shots 2
39 Dangerous attacks 48
39 Possession 61
6 Corners 7
13 Free kicks 14
3 Yellow Cards 3

Match Overview

21 Dribble Attempts 11
15 Successful Dribbles 7
4 Goal Kicks 8
14 Throwins 28
71 Successful Dribbles Percentage 64
5 Substitutions 5
3 Injuries 0
2 Goal Attempts 7
47 Ball Safe 40
1 Hit Woodwork 0
1 Assists 0

Attacking

68 Attacks 129
1 Big Chances Missed 0

Possession

18 Successful Long Passes 15
39 Successful Long Passes Percentage 47
11 Key Passes 6
203 Successful Passes 372
281 Passes 457
72 Successful Passes Percentage 81
46 Long Passes 32

Defensive

20 Tackles 19
2 Saves 7
20 Interceptions 8

Build-up

20 Total Crosses 20
3 Accurate Crosses 4

Discipline

11 Fouls 6
2 Offsides 6

Lineup

Referee : Jon Ander González Esteban

Starting XI ▼

1
Esteban Andrada
Esteban Andrada Goalkeeper
4
Pablo Insua
Pablo Insua Defender
18
Jawad El Yamiq
Jawad El Yamiq Defender
20
Martín Aguirregabiria
Martín Aguirregabiria Defender
27
Juan Larios
Juan Larios Defender
6
Keidi Bare
Keidi Bare Midfielder
11
Rober González
Rober González Midfielder
8
Toni Moya
Toni Moya
Midfielder86'
14
Francho Serrano
Francho Serrano Midfielder
31
Hugo Pinilla
Hugo Pinilla Midfielder
3
Dani Tasende
Dani Tasende
Defender76'
33
Yussif Saidu
Yussif Saidu Midfielder
26
Mawuli Kwame Mensah Vadze
Mawuli Kwame Mensah Vadze
Midfielder82'
9
Dani Gómez
Dani Gómez Attacker
19
Kenan Kodro
Kenan Kodro
Attacker86'
Referee : Jon Ander González Esteban

Starting XI ▼

1
Jokin Ezkieta
Jokin Ezkieta Goalkeeper
3
Mario García
Mario García Defender
4
Manu Hernando
Manu Hernando Defender
5
Javi Castro
Javi Castro Defender
15
Marco Sangalli
Marco Sangalli
Attacker82'
16
Facundo González
Facundo González Defender
6
Íñigo Sainz-Maza
Íñigo Sainz-Maza Midfielder
14
Maguette Gueye
Maguette Gueye
Midfielder46'
8
Aritz Aldasoro
Aritz Aldasoro Midfielder
36
Sergio Martínez
Sergio Martínez
Midfielder46'
10
Iñigo Vicente
Iñigo Vicente Midfielder
11
Andrés Martín
Andrés Martín Midfielder
23
Damián Rodríguez
Damián Rodríguez Midfielder
43
Santi Franco
Santi Franco Attacker
12
Asier Villalibre
Asier Villalibre
Attacker64'

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Martín Aguirregabiria
Argument / 6th Yellowcard
90+1'
Event
Marco Sangalli
Left foot shot / 1st Own Goal
87'
Event
Kenan Kodro → Dani Gómez
9th Substitution
86'
Event
Toni Moya → Rober González
10th Substitution
86'
Event
Pablo Insua
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
84'
Event
Mawuli Kwame Mensah Vadze → Yussif Saidu
7th Substitution
82'
82'
Event
Marco Sangalli → Javi Castro
8th Substitution
Event
Dani Tasende → Hugo Pinilla
6th Substitution
76'
Event
Marcos Cuenca
5th Substitution
76'
75'
Event
Diego Fuentes
4th Substitution
Event
Dani Gómez
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
74'
64'
Event
Asier Villalibre → Santi Franco
3rd Substitution
46'
Event
Maguette Gueye → Íñigo Sainz-Maza
1st Substitution
46'
Event
Sergio Martínez → Aritz Aldasoro
2nd Substitution
1ST-HALF
45'
Event
7th Yellowcard
45'
Event
Santi Franco
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
44'
Event
Iñigo Vicente
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
Event
Keidi Bare
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
30'
21'
Event
Javi Castro
Foul / 1st Yellowcard

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Real Zaragoza exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

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