Real Valladolid vs Cádiz Prediction, Preview and Stats

Spain flag 2025/2026 La Liga 2, Spain
Estadio Municipal José Zorrilla Tue, 31 Mar - 7:30 PM
La Liga 2
Real Valladolid REV
3 Winner 0
Cádiz CAD
Full Time Tue, 31 Mar 7:30 PM
Round 33 Regular Season
Chuki - 15', 75'
Dawda Camara - 29' (Own Goal)
Goal
|

CONTEXT

The match between Real Valladolid and Cádiz has finished, with the hosts securing a decisive 3-0 full-time victory. Real Valladolid laid the groundwork early, taking a comfortable 2-0 lead into the halftime break. This outcome perfectly aligned with the pre-match market, which gave Valladolid a heavy 62.1% win probability compared to a 22.6% chance of a draw and just 15.3% for the visitors. Despite Cádiz being rated as the overall stronger team, Valladolid produced a significant deviation in their favor to claim the win. On the pitch, Real Valladolid controlled the tempo, recording 56% possession while limiting Cádiz to 44% of the ball. Because expected goals (xG) data was unavailable for this fixture, it is impossible to assess if the final scoreline aligned with the underlying chance creation. However, the overall efficiency shift was strictly in line with expectations. The match proceeded without any major disciplinary disruptions, as neither side received a red card. Operating with a full complement of players for the entire 90 minutes, Real Valladolid smoothly converted their pre-match market advantage into a dominant, clean-sheet triumph.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Real Valladolid showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
J. González Esteban
J. González Esteban
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 17
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 4.08
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.12
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.29
D. Pérez de Colosía Alonso
D. Pérez de Colosía Alonso
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 17
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 4.08
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.12
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.29
L. Marín Robles
L. Marín Robles
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 17
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 4.08
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.12
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.29
I. de Santisteban Adame
I. de Santisteban Adame
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 17
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 4.08
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.12
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.29
Real Valladolid F. Escriba Segura
F. Escriba Segura
VS
Cádiz S. González Soriano
S. González Soriano
1.04
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Mirandés Rank: 57 L
Leganés Rank: 66 W
Málaga Rank: 68 D
Huesca Rank: 58 W
Sporting Gijón Rank: 64 D
Granada Rank: 67 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Mirandés Rank: 57 W
Real Zaragoza Rank: 60 L
SD Eibar Rank: 68 L
Real Sociedad II Rank: 62 L
Burgos Rank: 67 D
Almería Rank: 71 L
2
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
2 - 6 - 3
3

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Real Valladolid
62.13%
Draw
22.55%
Away Cádiz
15.32%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
56.43
59.27
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Real Valladolid
Cádiz
Power Score
56.43
59.27
League Position
16
18
Global Rank
442
489

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Real Valladolid — Opponent-weighted form score
Cádiz — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Real Valladolid Cádiz

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Real Valladolid

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Cádiz

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Real Valladolid ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Cádiz
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
27.77
20.34
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
20.34
27.77
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Real Valladolid +0.75 Efficiency Index
vs
Cádiz -0.75 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Real Valladolid
Cádiz
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Real Valladolid ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Cádiz
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Real Valladolid Cádiz
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Real Valladolid Cádiz
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Real Valladolid
Cádiz
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 11 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Real Valladolid REV Home
11 matches
Cádiz CAD Away
Match Record
2
Wins
3
6
Draws
6
3
Losses
2
Goals
6
Goals Scored
8
8
Goals Conceded
6
-2
Goal Difference
+2
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-02T08:59:58+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
Á. Aceves Catalina
Spain
1 Á. Aceves Catalina
I. Alejo Peralta
Substitution
Spain
14 I. Alejo Peralta
P. Tomeo Félez
Spain
15 P. Tomeo Félez
D. Torres Ortiz
Spain
4 D. Torres Ortiz
C. Clerc Martínez
Spain
18 C. Clerc Martínez
S. Jurić
Croatia
24 (C) S. Jurić
J. Ponceau
Substitution
France
21 J. Ponceau
P. Gonzalez Carmona
Substitution
Spain
22 P. Gonzalez Carmona
I. San José Cantalejo
Substitution
Spain
20 I. San José Cantalejo
S. Biuk
Croatia
17 S. Biuk
J. Latasa Fernandez Layos
Substitution
Spain
9 J. Latasa Fernandez Layos
V. Aznar Ussen
Brazil
13 V. Aznar Ussen
R. Pereira Vargas
Spain
33 R. Pereira Vargas
S. Arribas Prieto
Substitution
Spain
38 S. Arribas Prieto
B. Kovačević
Substitution
Serbia
14 B. Kovačević
A. Caicedo Mina
Ecuador
29 A. Caicedo Mina
J. González
Spain
24 J. González
A. Fernández Iglesias
Substitution
Spain
8 (C) A. Fernández Iglesias
B. Ocampo Ferreira
Substitution
Uruguay
10 B. Ocampo Ferreira
J. Fernández Sáez de la Torre
Spain
11 J. Fernández Sáez de la Torre
J. de la Rosa
Substitution
Spain
19 J. de la Rosa
D. Camara Sankharé
Mauritania
17 D. Camara Sankharé

General Information

Date & Time
Mar 31, 2026, 07:30 PM
Competition
2025/2026 La Liga 2, Spain · Round 33 · Regular Season
Stadium
Estadio Municipal José Zorrilla
Capacity
27618
Attendance
14002
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ , Clear
Referees
Jon Ander González Esteban
David Pérez de Colosía Alonso
Luis Miguel Marín Robles
Ignacio de Santisteban Adame

Statistics

Possession
REV
56%
CAD
44%

Top Statistics

3 Goals 0
4 Big Chances Created 0
13 Shots 8
51 Dangerous attacks 19
56 Possession 44
7 Corners 2
13 Free kicks 13
0 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

40 Successful Dribbles Percentage 24
19 Throwins 18
20 Dribble Attempts 17
4 Goal Kicks 8
8 Successful Dribbles 4
9 Goal Attempts 5
78 Ball Safe 73
5 Substitutions 5
1 Assists 0
0 Hit Woodwork 1

Attacking

115 Attacks 96
2 Big Chances Missed 0

Possession

62 Long Passes 62
35 Successful Long Passes 19
84 Successful Passes Percentage 78
364 Successful Passes 275
431 Passes 352
56 Successful Long Passes Percentage 31
11 Key Passes 5

Defensive

1 Saves 4
20 Tackles 19
8 Interceptions 7
54 Duels Won 47

Build-up

21 Total Crosses 11
6 Accurate Crosses 4

Discipline

13 Fouls 13
3 Offsides 2

Lineup

Referee : Jon Ander González Esteban

Starting XI ▼

1
Álvaro Aceves
Álvaro Aceves Goalkeeper
7.09
4
David Torres
David Torres Defender
6.6
14
Iván Alejo
Iván Alejo Defender
7.04
2
Clément Michelin
Clément Michelin
Defender71'
6.59
15
Pablo Tomeo
Pablo Tomeo Defender
6.92
18
Carlos Clerc
Carlos Clerc Defender
7.06
17
Stipe Biuk
Stipe Biuk Midfielder
6.93
20
Chuki
Chuki Midfielder
2
8.76
8
Víctor Meseguer
Víctor Meseguer
Midfielder83'
6.6
21
Julien Ponceau
Julien Ponceau Midfielder
6.95
6
Mathis Lachuer
Mathis Lachuer
Midfielder87'
22
Peter Federico
Peter Federico Midfielder
7.34
19
Lucas Sanseviero
Lucas Sanseviero
Attacker71'
6.87
24
Stanko Juric
Stanko Juric (C) Midfielder
7.05
9
Juanmi Latasa
Juanmi Latasa Attacker
6.75
10
Marcos André
Marcos André
Attacker83'
6.72
Referee : Jon Ander González Esteban

Starting XI ▼

13
Victor Wehbi Aznar
Victor Wehbi Aznar Goalkeeper
6.41
14
Bojan Kovacevic
Bojan Kovacevic Defender
6.07
27
Pelayo Fernández
Pelayo Fernández
Defender46'
6.27
29
Alfred Caicedo
Alfred Caicedo Defender
6.73
33
Raúl Pereira
Raúl Pereira Defender
6.13
38
Sergio Arribas
Sergio Arribas Defender
6.33
18
Yussi Diarra
Yussi Diarra
Midfielder79'
6.61
8
Álex Fernández
Álex Fernández (C) Midfielder
6.58
3
Rominigue Kouamé
Rominigue Kouamé
Midfielder46'
6.66
10
Brian Ocampo
Brian Ocampo Midfielder
6.02
9
Roger Martí
Roger Martí
Attacker46'
6.66
11
Suso
Suso Midfielder
6.49
19
José Antonio de la Rosa
José Antonio de la Rosa Midfielder
6.23
16
Antoñito Cordero
Antoñito Cordero
Attacker70'
6.41
24
Joaquín González
Joaquín González Midfielder
6.68
17
Dawda Camara
Dawda Camara Attacker
6.75

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Mathis Lachuer → Julien Ponceau
10th Substitution
87'
Event
Marcos André → Juanmi Latasa
8th Substitution
83'
Event
Víctor Meseguer → Chuki
9th Substitution
83'
82'
Event
Suso
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
79'
Event
Yussi Diarra → Sergio Arribas
7th Substitution
Event
Chuki
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
75'
Event
Lucas Sanseviero → Peter Federico
6th Substitution
71'
Event
Clément Michelin → Iván Alejo
5th Substitution
71'
70'
Event
Antoñito Cordero → José Antonio de la Rosa
4th Substitution
46'
Event
Pelayo Fernández → Bojan Kovacevic
1st Substitution
46'
Event
Roger Martí → Brian Ocampo
3rd Substitution
46'
Event
Rominigue Kouamé → Álex Fernández
2nd Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Dawda Camara
Header / 1st Own Goal
29'
Event
Chuki
Left foot shot / 1st Goal
15'

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Real Valladolid exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

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