Port Vale vs Sunderland Prediction, Preview and Stats

England flag 2025/2026 FA Cup, England
Vale Park Sun, 8 Mar - 1:30 PM
FA Cup
Port Vale PTV
1 Winner 0
Sunderland SUN
Full Time Sun, 8 Mar 1:30 PM
Ben Waine - 28'
Goal
|

CONTEXT

Match is finished. Port Vale 1–0 Sunderland. The result saw Port Vale take the points. Port Vale showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result diverged from the pre-match projection. Possession was 31%–69%.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Port Vale showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
A. Taylor
A. Taylor
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 19.5
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.63
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.13
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.13
G. Beswick
G. Beswick
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 19.5
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.63
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.13
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.13
A. Nunn
A. Nunn
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 19.5
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.63
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.13
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.13
B. Toner
B. Toner
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 19.5
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.63
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.13
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.13
Port Vale J. Brady
J. Brady
VS
Sunderland R. Le Bris
R. Le Bris
3
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
2
3 i
Last 6 Opponents
Bristol City Rank: W
Fleetwood Town Rank: W
Bristol Rovers Rank: W
Maldon & Tiptree Rank: W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2 i
Last 6 Opponents
Oxford United Rank: W
Everton Rank: D
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 0 - 2
2

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Port Vale
14%
Draw
23.3%
Away Sunderland
62.7%
Power Ranking data not available.

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Port Vale — Opponent-weighted form score
Sunderland — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Port Vale Sunderland

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Port Vale

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Sunderland

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Port Vale ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Sunderland
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
31.94
29.49
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
29.49
31.94
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Port Vale +0.20 Efficiency Index
vs
Sunderland -0.20 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Port Vale
Sunderland
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Port Vale ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Sunderland
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Port Vale Sunderland
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Port Vale Sunderland
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Port Vale
Sunderland
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 0 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Port Vale PTV Home
0 matches
Sunderland SUN Away
Match Record
0
Wins
0
0
Draws
0
0
Losses
0
Goals
0
Goals Scored
0
0
Goals Conceded
0
0
Goal Difference
0
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-03-09T00:06:24+00:00

TEAM FORMATION

No team formation data available.

General Information

Date & Time
Mar 08, 2026, 01:30 PM
Competition
2025/2026 FA Cup, England
Stadium
Vale Park
Capacity
19052
Attendance
10685
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Anthony Taylor
Gary Beswick
Adam Nunn
Ben Toner

Statistics

Possession
PTV
36%
SUN
64%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 0
0 Big Chances Created 4
9 Shots 17
18 Dangerous attacks 67
31 Possession 69
5 Corners 9
12 Free kicks 12
2 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

21 Successful Headers 29
0 Hit Woodwork 1
16 Goal Kicks 7
1 Assists 0
6 Successful Dribbles 7
75 Ball Safe 74
5 Substitutions 2
1 Injuries 1
3 Goal Attempts 12
11 Throwins 24
11 Dribble Attempts 23
55 Successful Dribbles Percentage 30

Attacking

64 Attacks 115
0 Big Chances Missed 4

Possession

17 Successful Long Passes 25
26 Successful Long Passes Percentage 42
7 Key Passes 11
58 Successful Passes Percentage 80
207 Passes 452
121 Successful Passes 362
66 Long Passes 60

Defensive

17 Tackles 15
10 Interceptions 3
5 Saves 0
53 Duels Won 62

Build-up

9 Total Crosses 27
3 Accurate Crosses 9

Discipline

0 Offsides 2
12 Fouls 10

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Grant Ward → Ben Waine
7th Substitution
88'
83'
Event
Granit Xhaka → Chris Rigg
6th Substitution
Event
E. Campbell → Liam Gordon
5th Substitution
81'
68'
Event
Wilson Isidor → Chemsdine Talbi
4th Substitution
Event
Jon Brady
Argument / 4th Yellowcard
63'
61'
Event
Melker Ellborg
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
Event
Andre Gray → Dajaune Brown
2nd Substitution
57'
Event
George Hall → E. Archer
3rd Substitution
57'
Event
Ben Waine
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
54'
Event
Tyler Magloire → C. Humphreys
1st Substitution
46'
1ST-HALF
Event
Dajaune Brown
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
30'
Event
Ben Waine
Header / 1st Goal
28'

Match Commentary

90
Update Update
Jordan Lawrence-Gabriel from Port Vale is awarded a free kick in his team's defensive half.
90
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be 6 minutes of stoppage time.
90
Update Update
Habib Diarra from Sunderland earns a free kick in his own half.
90
Update Update
Foul committed by Nilson Angulo of Sunderland.
90
Update Update
George Hall commits a foul for Port Vale.
90
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity! Enzo Le Fée from Sunderland takes a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it sails over the crossbar.
90
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity! Andre Gray from Port Vale took a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it went wide to the left. The assist came from Jordan Lawrence-Gabriel.
90
Update Update
The second half has concluded with the scoreline reading Port Vale 1, Sunderland 0.
88
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Port Vale: Grant Ward comes on to take the place of Ben Waine.
82
Attempt Attempt
A shot attempt is thwarted. George Hall from Port Vale takes a left-footed strike from the middle of the penalty area, but it gets blocked. The assist came from Funso Ojo.
81
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Port Vale: Elijah Campbell comes on to take the place of Liam Gordon.
80
Update Update
Ben Waine from Port Vale committed a handball foul.
79
Update Update
Ben Waine from Port Vale committed a handball offense.
79
Update Update
Sunderland is flagged for offside. Nilson Angulo has been caught in an offside position.
77
Update Update
Habib Diarra from Sunderland earns a free kick in his team's defensive zone.
77
Update Update
Ben Waine commits a foul for Port Vale.
76
Update Update
Nilson Angulo from Sunderland committed a handball.
75
Update Update
Jordan Lawrence-Gabriel from Port Vale earns a free kick in his team's defensive zone.
75
Update Update
Nilson Angulo from Sunderland commits a foul.
74
Update Update
Kyle John commits a foul for Port Vale.
74
Update Update
Wilson Isidor from Sunderland earns a free kick in the opponent's half.
72
Update Update
The pause has ended. They are set to resume play.
71
Update Update
Funso Ojo from Port Vale is awarded a free kick in the opponent's half.
71
Update Update
Chris Rigg from Sunderland commits a foul.
71
Update Update
The game is currently paused due to an injury to Joe Gauci from Port Vale.
70
Corner Corner
Nien takes the corner kick...
70
Attempt Attempt
A shot on goal was blocked. Dan Ballard from Sunderland directed a header from the middle of the penalty area, but Joe Gauci from Port Vale managed to save it, reaching for the ball in the upper center of the net. The opportunity was set up by a cross from Enzo Le Fée.
70
Corner Corner
Sunderland has earned a corner kick, with Joe Gauci being the one responsible for conceding it.
69
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to Sunderland, following a defensive play by Joe Gauci.
69
Corner Corner
A shot on goal was thwarted. Nilson Angulo from Sunderland directed a header from a challenging position on the left, but Joe Gauci from Port Vale made a fantastic save, reaching to the top left corner. The opportunity was set up by a cross from Chris Rigg.
68
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Sunderland: Wilson Isidor comes on to take the place of Chemsdine Talbi.
68
Corner Corner
Missed opportunity! Dan Ballard from Sunderland had a header from close range, but it sailed just over the bar. The chance was set up by Enzo Le Fée, who delivered a cross after a corner kick.
63
Update Update
Match is currently on hold - Port Vale.
63
Update Update
The pause has ended. They’re set to resume play now.
63
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. George Hall from Port Vale takes a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it's blocked.
63
Update Update
The pause has ended. They are set to resume play.
61
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Melker Ellborg from Sunderland receives a yellow card for committing a serious foul.
60
Update Update
George Hall from Port Vale earns a free kick in the opponent's half.
60
Update Update
George Hall from Port Vale earns a free kick in the opponent's half.
60
Update Update
Melker Ellborg from Sunderland commits a foul.
58
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to Sunderland after Connor Hall allowed the ball to go out.
57
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Port Vale: Andre Gray comes on to take the place of Dajaune Brown.
56
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to Port Vale after Eliezer Mayenda allowed the ball to go out of play.
56
Corner Corner
Sunderland has earned a corner kick after Jordan Lawrence-Gabriel allowed the ball to go out.
55
Update Update
Enzo Le Fée commits a foul for Sunderland.
55
Update Update
Dajaune Brown from Port Vale is awarded a free kick in the offensive zone.
54
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Ben Waine from Port Vale receives a yellow card for committing a serious foul.
54
Update Update
Ben Waine commits a foul for Port Vale.
54
Update Update
Enzo Le Fée from Sunderland earns a free kick in his team's defensive zone.
53
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity! Eliezer Mayenda from Sunderland had a header from the middle of the box after a set piece, but it went wide.
52
Update Update
Habib Diarra from Sunderland earns a free kick in the opponent's half.
52
Update Update
Habib Diarra from Sunderland earns a free kick in the offensive half of the field.
50
Update Update
Jordan Lawrence-Gabriel commits a foul for Port Vale.
50
Update Update
Jordan Lawrence-Gabriel commits a foul for Port Vale.
48
Update Update
Eliezer Mayenda from Sunderland commits a foul.
48
Corner Corner
A shot on goal has been blocked. Chemsdine Talbi from Sunderland took a left-footed strike from the middle of the penalty area, but Joe Gauci of Port Vale managed to make a save, stopping the ball in the bottom right corner.
48
Update Update
Kyle John from Port Vale earns a free kick in his team's defensive zone.
48
Update Update
Eliezer Mayenda from Sunderland committed a foul.
47
Corner Corner
Sunderland has been awarded a corner kick after Tyler Magloire allowed the ball to go out of play.
46
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to Sunderland, following a foul by Tyler Magloire.
45
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Port Vale: Tyler Magloire comes on to take the place of Cameron Humphreys.
45
Update Update
The first half concludes with Port Vale leading Sunderland 1-0.
45
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity! Habib Diarra from Sunderland took a right-footed shot from the right side of the penalty area, but it went wide to the left. The assist came from Nilson Angulo.
45
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be three minutes of stoppage time.
45
Update Update
The second half is underway with the score at Port Vale 1, Sunderland 0.
42
Update Update
Lutsharel Geertruida commits a foul for Sunderland.
42
Corner Corner
A shot on goal was stopped. Nilson Angulo of Sunderland took a right-footed attempt from the right side of the penalty area, but Joe Gauci from Port Vale made a save in the bottom right corner, with assistance from Habib Diarra.
42
Update Update
Ethon Archer from Port Vale is awarded a free kick on the left flank.
41
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity! Habib Diarra from Sunderland heads the ball from the center of the box, but it goes wide to the right. The cross was delivered by Nilson Angulo.
40
Attempt Attempt
Ethon Archer from Port Vale has a shot from outside the penalty area, but it's deflected away by a defender.
39
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity! Dajaune Brown of Port Vale took a right-footed shot from the middle of the box, but it went wide to the left. The attempt was set up by Ethon Archer.
39
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity! Dajaune Brown from Port Vale took a right-footed shot from the middle of the penalty area, but it went wide.
36
Update Update
Offside call against Sunderland. Nilson Angulo has been flagged for being in an offside position.
36
Update Update
Sunderland is flagged for offside. Nilson Angulo has been caught in an offside position.
33
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity. Habib Diarra from Sunderland took a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area.
33
Update Update
The pause has ended. They are set to resume play.
31
Update Update
The game is currently paused due to an injury to Joe Gauci from Port Vale.
30
Update Update
Dajaune Brown from Port Vale commits a foul.
30
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Dajaune Brown from Port Vale receives a yellow card for committing a serious foul.
30
Update Update
Dan Ballard from Sunderland earns a free kick in his team's defensive zone.
29
Update Update
Nilson Angulo from Sunderland earns a free kick in the opponent's half.
29
Update Update
Liam Gordon from Port Vale commits a foul.
28
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Port Vale takes the lead with a score of 1-0 against Sunderland. Ben Waine scores with a header from the center of the penalty area, placing the ball into the top right corner of the net. The assist comes from Dajaune Brown after a corner kick.
27
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Port Vale after Chris Rigg allowed the ball to go out of play.
27
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to Port Vale after Enzo Le Fée allowed the ball to go out.
26
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to Port Vale, following a foul by Melker Ellborg.
19
Update Update
Chemsdine Talbi from Sunderland has been awarded a free kick on the left side of the field.
19
Update Update
Habib Diarra from Sunderland committed a foul.
19
Update Update
Connor Hall from Port Vale is awarded a free kick in his team's defensive zone.
19
Update Update
Ben Waine commits a foul for Port Vale.
11
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Sunderland after a deflection off Liam Gordon.
9
Attempt Attempt
A shot attempt is thwarted. Chris Rigg from Sunderland takes a left-footed strike from the middle of the penalty area, but it's blocked.
6
Update Update
Nien from Sunderland earns a free kick in their own half.
6
Update Update
Nien from Sunderland earns a free kick in their own half.
4
Corner Corner
Eliezer Mayenda from Sunderland heads the ball towards the left post from the left side of the six-yard area after a corner kick, but it strikes the post.
4
Corner Corner
Sunderland has been awarded a corner kick after Cameron Humphreys allowed the ball to go out of play.
4
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to Sunderland, following a play that resulted in a deflection off Joe Gauci.
3
Update Update
Enzo Le Fée of Sunderland is awarded a free kick in their own half.
3
Update Update
Rhys Walters from Port Vale commits a foul.
2
Corner Corner
Missed opportunity. Connor Hall from Port Vale took a left-footed shot from the middle of the penalty area after a corner kick.
1
Corner Corner
Port Vale has been awarded a corner kick after Omar Alderete allowed the ball to go out of play.

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Port Vale exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

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