Leeds United vs Norwich City Prediction, Preview and Stats

England flag 2025/2026 FA Cup, England
Elland Road Sun, 8 Mar - 4:30 PM
FA Cup
Leeds United LEE
3 Winner 0
Norwich City NOR
Full Time Sun, 8 Mar 4:30 PM
Sean Longstaff - 32'
Gabriel Gudmundsson - 43'
Joël Piroe - 85'
Goal
|

CONTEXT

Match is finished. Leeds United 1–0 Norwich City. The result saw Leeds United take the points. Leeds United showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result aligned with the pre-match projection. Possession was 51%–49%.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Leeds United showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
D. England
D. England
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 19.5
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.63
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.13
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.13
S. Ledger
S. Ledger
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 19.5
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.63
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.13
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.13
A. Howson
A. Howson
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 19.5
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.63
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.13
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.13
T. Kirk
T. Kirk
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 19.5
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.63
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.13
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.13
Leeds United D. Farke
D. Farke
VS
Norwich City P. Clement
P. Clement
2
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
3
2 i
Last 6 Opponents
Birmingham City Rank: D
Derby County Rank: W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
3 i
Last 6 Opponents
Walsall Rank: W
11
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
11 - 8 - 4
4

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Leeds United
59.82%
Draw
22.02%
Away Norwich City
18.15%
Power Ranking data not available.

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Leeds United — Opponent-weighted form score
Norwich City — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Leeds United Norwich City

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Leeds United

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Norwich City

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Leeds United ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Norwich City
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
33.53
17.14
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
17.14
33.53
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Leeds United +1.34 Efficiency Index
vs
Norwich City -1.34 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Leeds United
Norwich City
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Leeds United ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Norwich City
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Leeds United Norwich City
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Leeds United Norwich City
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Leeds United
Norwich City
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 0 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Leeds United LEE Home
0 matches
Norwich City NOR Away
Match Record
0
Wins
0
0
Draws
0
0
Losses
0
Goals
0
Goals Scored
0
0
Goals Conceded
0
0
Goal Difference
0
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-03-09T00:18:51+00:00

TEAM FORMATION

No team formation data available.

General Information

Date & Time
Mar 08, 2026, 04:30 PM
Competition
2025/2026 FA Cup, England
Stadium
Elland Road
Capacity
40242
Attendance
36313
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Darren England
Scott Ledger
Akil Howson
Thomas Kirk

Statistics

Possession
LEE
52%
NOR
48%

Top Statistics

3 Goals 0
3 Big Chances Created 2
15 Shots 7
42 Dangerous attacks 28
51 Possession 49
8 Corners 0
13 Free kicks 19
2 Yellow Cards 3

Match Overview

6 Successful Dribbles 6
20 Dribble Attempts 10
16 Successful Headers 5
15 Throwins 11
7 Goal Kicks 8
30 Successful Dribbles Percentage 60
40 Ball Safe 46
2 Assists 0
7 Goal Attempts 1
1 Injuries 1
5 Substitutions 5
1 Hit Woodwork 2

Attacking

88 Attacks 94
1 Big Chances Missed 2

Possession

50 Long Passes 44
54 Successful Long Passes Percentage 30
363 Successful Passes 356
436 Passes 444
83 Successful Passes Percentage 80
27 Successful Long Passes 13
9 Key Passes 5

Defensive

15 Tackles 18
13 Interceptions 12
3 Saves 3
49 Duels Won 44

Build-up

5 Accurate Crosses 2
23 Total Crosses 6

Discipline

17 Fouls 12
3 Offsides 2

Events

2ND-HALF
90+3'
Event
Kellen Fisher
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
Event
Sam Byram → Gabriel Gudmundsson
10th Substitution
87'
Event
Joël Piroe
Left foot shot / 3rd Goal
85'
82'
Event
Amankwah Forson → Ali Ahmed
9th Substitution
Event
Pascal Struijk → Sean Longstaff
8th Substitution
70'
Event
Anton Stach → Ao Tanaka
7th Substitution
70'
Event
Jayden Bogle → Daniel James
6th Substitution
70'
63'
Event
Errol Mundle-Smith → Mathias Kvistgaarden
5th Substitution
63'
Event
Anis Slimane → Paris Maghoma
4th Substitution
62'
Event
Jack Stacey → Liam Gibbs
3rd Substitution
Event
Ao Tanaka
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
59'
Event
James Justin → Sebastiaan Bornauw
1st Substitution
46'
46'
Event
Vladan Kovačević → Daniel Grimshaw
2nd Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Gabriel Gudmundsson
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
43'
41'
Event
José Córdoba
Argument / 3rd Yellowcard
Event
Sean Longstaff
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
39'
Event
Sean Longstaff
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
32'
25'
Event
Ali Ahmed
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
Event
Lukas Nmecha
Goal disallowed
21'

Match Commentary

90
Corner Corner
Leeds United has been awarded a corner kick after José Córdoba allowed the ball to go out of play.
90
Update Update
The second half has concluded, with Leeds United securing a 3-0 victory over Norwich City.
90
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be three minutes of stoppage time.
90
Update Update
Jaka Bijol commits a foul for Leeds United.
90
Update Update
The second half has concluded, with Leeds United securing a 3-0 victory over Norwich City.
90
Update Update
Wilfried Gnonto of Leeds United earns a free kick in his team's defensive zone.
90
Update Update
Sam Field from Norwich City earns a free kick in the offensive half of the field.
90
Attempt Attempt
Jack Stacey from Norwich City had a shot with his right foot from the middle of the box, but Lucas Perri of Leeds United made a save right in the center of the goal.
90
Update Update
Offside call against Norwich City. Errol Mundle-Smith has been flagged for being in an offside position.
90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Kellen Fisher from Norwich City receives a yellow card for committing a serious foul.
90
Update Update
Anton Stach from Leeds United earns a free kick in his team's defensive zone.
90
Update Update
Ethan Ampadu from Leeds United commits a foul.
87
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Leeds United: Sam Byram comes on to take the place of Gabriel Gudmundsson.
86
Update Update
Jayden Bogle commits a foul for Leeds United.
86
Update Update
José Córdoba from Norwich City earns a free kick in his own half.
85
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Leeds United leads 3-0 against Norwich City. Joël Piroe scores with a left-footed shot from the middle of the box after a quick counterattack.
82
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Norwich City: Amankwah Forson comes on to take the place of Ali Ahmed.
79
Update Update
Offside call against Norwich City. Anis Ben Slimane has been flagged for being offside.
77
Update Update
Kellen Fisher from Norwich City earns a free kick in his own half.
77
Update Update
Jaka Bijol commits a foul for Leeds United.
77
Update Update
Kellen Fisher from Norwich City is awarded a free kick in his team's defensive zone.
76
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to Leeds United after Vladan Kovacevic allowed the ball to go out.
76
Corner Corner
Leeds United has been awarded a corner kick after Vladan Kovacevic allowed the ball to go out of play.
76
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to Leeds United after a play that resulted in a deflection off Vladan Kovacevic.
74
Update Update
Leeds United is flagged for offside. Joël Piroe has been ruled offside.
73
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity. Lukas Nmecha from Leeds United took a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area.
72
Update Update
Kellen Fisher from Norwich City is awarded a free kick in his team's defensive zone.
72
Update Update
Jaka Bijol from Leeds United commits a foul.
71
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to Leeds United after Vladan Kovacevic allowed the ball to go out of play.
71
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to Leeds United after Kenny McLean allowed the ball to go out.
71
Corner Corner
Missed opportunity! Jaka Bijol of Leeds United headed the ball from the center of the box, but it went wide to the left. The chance was set up by Anton Stach, who delivered a cross after a corner kick.
71
Corner Corner
A shot from Joël Piroe of Leeds United, taken with his left foot from outside the penalty area, is successfully stopped by Vladan Kovacevic of Norwich City, who makes a save in the top right corner. The attempt was set up by Wilfried Gnonto.
70
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Leeds United: Jayden Bogle comes on to take the place of Daniel James.
70
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Leeds United: Pascal Struijk comes on to take the place of Sean Longstaff.
70
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Leeds United: Anton Stach comes on to take the place of Ao Tanaka.
68
Update Update
Anis Ben Slimane from Norwich City commits a foul.
68
Update Update
Ao Tanaka from Leeds United earns a free kick in his team's defensive zone.
67
Update Update
Lukas Nmecha from Leeds United commits a foul.
67
Update Update
Jack Stacey from Norwich City earns a free kick in his team's defensive zone.
66
Update Update
Wilfried Gnonto from Leeds United commits a foul.
66
Update Update
Ruairi McConville from Norwich City is awarded a free kick in his team's defensive zone.
64
Update Update
Anis Ben Slimane from Norwich City strikes the right post with a right-footed attempt from the right side of the six-yard area.
64
Update Update
Wilfried Gnonto of Leeds United earns a free kick on the left flank.
64
Update Update
Kenny McLean from Norwich City commits a foul.
63
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Norwich City: Anis Ben Slimane comes on to take the place of Paris Maghoma.
63
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Norwich City: Errol Mundle-Smith comes on to take the place of Mathias Kvistgaarden.
62
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Norwich City: Jack Stacey comes on to take the place of Liam Gibbs.
61
Attempt Attempt
Shot on goal denied. Paris Maghoma of Norwich City takes a right-footed effort from outside the penalty area, but the goalkeeper makes the save.
59
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Ao Tanaka of Leeds United receives a yellow card for committing a serious foul.
59
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity! José Córdoba from Norwich City heads the ball from just a short distance, but it goes over the bar and to the right. The chance was created by Paris Maghoma, who delivered a cross after a set piece.
58
Update Update
Sean Longstaff commits a foul for Leeds United.
58
Update Update
Ben Chrisene from Norwich City earns a free kick on the left side of the field.
58
Update Update
Ao Tanaka commits a foul for Leeds United.
58
Update Update
Ali Ahmed from Norwich City earns a free kick in his team's defensive zone.
57
Attempt Attempt
Shot on goal denied. Kenny McLean from Norwich City takes a left-footed strike from outside the penalty area, but the goalkeeper makes the save.
53
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity! Liam Gibbs from Norwich City takes a left-footed shot from the left side of the penalty area, but it goes wide.
51
Update Update
The pause has ended. They are set to resume play.
51
Update Update
The game is currently paused due to an injury to Vladan Kovacevic from Norwich City.
48
Update Update
Gabriel Gudmundsson of Leeds United commits a handball.
45
Update Update
Sebastiaan Bornauw from Leeds United commits a foul.
45
Update Update
José Córdoba commits a foul for Norwich City.
45
Update Update
Lukas Nmecha from Leeds United earns a free kick in his own half.
45
Update Update
Kenny McLean from Norwich City earns a free kick on the left flank.
45
Update Update
Gabriel Gudmundsson from Leeds United earns a free kick in his team's defensive zone.
45
Corner Corner
Leeds United has been awarded a corner kick after Sam Field allowed the ball to go out of play.
45
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be 6 minutes of stoppage time.
45
Update Update
The pause has ended. They're set to resume play.
45
Update Update
The pause has ended. They are set to resume play.
45
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Norwich City: Vladan Kovacevic comes on to replace Daniel Grimshaw, who has been injured.
45
Update Update
The game has been paused due to an injury to Lukas Nmecha from Leeds United.
45
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Leeds United: James Justin comes on to take the place of Sebastiaan Bornauw.
45
Update Update
The game is currently paused due to an injury to Wilfried Gnonto from Leeds United.
45
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to Leeds United after Sam Field allowed the ball to go out.
45
Update Update
The first half comes to a close with Leeds United leading Norwich City 2-0.
45
Update Update
Liam Gibbs from Norwich City commits a foul.
45
Update Update
The second half is underway with Leeds United leading Norwich City 2-0.
43
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Leeds United leads Norwich City 2-0. Gabriel Gudmundsson scores with a left-footed strike from the middle of the penalty area.
42
Update Update
Sebastiaan Bornauw from Leeds United committed a foul.
42
Update Update
Ethan Ampadu from Leeds United earns a free kick in the opponent's half.
42
Update Update
Ali Ahmed from Norwich City earns a free kick on the left flank.
42
Update Update
Mathias Kvistgaarden commits a foul for Norwich City.
41
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
José Córdoba from Norwich City receives a yellow card for committing a serious foul.
40
Update Update
Leeds United is flagged for offside. Wilfried Gnonto has been caught in an offside position.
39
Update Update
Sean Longstaff commits a foul for Leeds United.
39
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Sean Longstaff from Leeds United receives a yellow card for committing a serious foul.
39
Update Update
Kenny McLean from Norwich City earns a free kick in his team's defensive zone.
38
Update Update
Offside call against Norwich City. Paris Maghoma has been flagged for being in an offside position.
38
Update Update
Ao Tanaka commits a foul for Leeds United.
38
Update Update
Ali Ahmed from Norwich City has been awarded a free kick in their own half.
35
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity! Ali Ahmed from Norwich City takes a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it goes just to the right of the goal. The attempt was set up by Paris Maghoma.
34
Update Update
Daniel James commits a foul for Leeds United.
34
Update Update
Ali Ahmed from Norwich City earns a free kick in his team's defensive zone.
32
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Leeds United takes the lead with a score of 1-0 against Norwich City. Sean Longstaff scores with a right-footed shot from the center of the box, finding the bottom left corner of the net. The assist comes from Gabriel Gudmundsson.
31
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to Leeds United after Sam Field allowed the ball to go out of play.
30
Update Update
Gabriel Gudmundsson from Leeds United earns a free kick in the offensive half of the field.
30
Corner Corner
Leeds United has been awarded a corner kick after Ruairi McConville allowed the ball to go out.
30
Update Update
Ali Ahmed from Norwich City committed a foul.
28
Update Update
Lukas Nmecha from Leeds United earns a free kick in the offensive zone.
28
Update Update
José Córdoba commits a foul for Norwich City.
27
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity! Lukas Nmecha from Leeds United takes a right-footed shot from the middle of the box, but it sails over the crossbar.
25
Update Update
Ali Ahmed from Norwich City committed a foul.
25
Update Update
Paris Maghoma commits a foul for Norwich City.
25
Update Update
Ao Tanaka of Leeds United is awarded a free kick in their own half.
25
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity! Wilfried Gnonto of Leeds United takes a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it sails over the crossbar. The chance was created by Joël Piroe after a set piece.
25
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Ali Ahmed from Norwich City receives a yellow card for committing a serious foul.
24
Update Update
Lukas Nmecha from Leeds United earns a free kick in the offensive half of the field.
23
Update Update
The pause has ended. They are set to resume play.
22
Update Update
The game is currently on hold due to an injury to Daniel Grimshaw from Norwich City.
21
Update Update
VAR Review: Goal Disallowed for Leeds United, Score Remains 0-0 Against Norwich City.
21
Update Update
VAR Review: Goal Disallowed – Leeds United 0, Norwich City 0.
19
Corner Corner
Goal! Leeds United takes the lead with a score of 1-0 against Norwich City. Lukas Nmecha scores with a right-footed shot from the center of the box, sending the ball into the bottom right corner of the net.
15
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to Leeds United after Ruairi McConville allowed the ball to go out.
12
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity! Sean Longstaff of Leeds United takes a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it goes wide.
10
Update Update
Jaka Bijol from Leeds United commits a foul.
10
Update Update
Mathias Kvistgaarden from Norwich City is awarded a free kick in the offensive half of the field.
9
Update Update
Leeds United is flagged for offside. Lukas Nmecha has been ruled offside.
5
Attempt Attempt
A shot attempt is thwarted. Gabriel Gudmundsson from Leeds United strikes with his left foot from outside the penalty area, but the effort is blocked.
3
Update Update
Liam Gibbs commits a foul for Norwich City.
3
Update Update
Gabriel Gudmundsson from Leeds United earns a free kick on the left side of the field.
2
Update Update
Sean Longstaff from Leeds United earns a free kick on the left flank.
2
Update Update
Liam Gibbs from Norwich City commits a foul.

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Leeds United exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

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