Pisa vs Genoa Prediction, Preview and Stats

Italy flag 2025/2026 Serie A, Italy
Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani Sun, 19 Apr - 4:00 PM
Serie A
Pisa PIS
Versus
Genoa GEN
KICKOFF : Sun, 19 Apr - 4:00 PM
Round 33 Regular Season

CONTEXT

The upcoming Serie A fixture sees Pisa taking on Genoa at the historic Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani. As the 2025/2026 season unfolds, the home side languishes in 20th position, desperately seeking points to climb away from the relegation zone. In contrast, Genoa sit in 13th place, aiming to solidify their mid-table status with consistent performances. Analysis reveals Genoa as the stronger team thanks to a power score of 22.84 against Pisa's 12.17, creating a 10.7 point advantage for the away side. Form guides indicate trouble for the hosts, who have recorded only one win in six matches, while their opponents have triumphed three times in an identical number of games. Pisa enter off the back of an away defeat to Roma, hoping to harness home support for a turnaround. Genoa, fresh from a home victory over Sassuolo, travel north with renewed belief. Several elements including tactical setups and player form will shape the narrative of this encounter as the league progresses.

TL;DR

  • Structural: Bottom-placed Pisa host 13th-placed Genoa at their Tuscan stadium during a regular league round.
  • Form: Hosts have one win from six outings compared to three wins for the visitors in the same span.
  • Squad: Injury concerns and selection choices will influence both managers as they prepare their respective lineups.
  • Efficiency: Current efficiency statistics remain unavailable, limiting insights into attacking and defensive output.
  • Transition: Genoa exhibit a notable advantage in game state transitions based on power score differentials.
  • Set pieces: Set piece data shows low confidence with proxies used, offering minimal differentiation between the sides.
  • xVariable: Advanced metrics favor Genoa, aligning with their higher power score and league standing.
  • Market: Pisa 28.5% (Δ+0%) | Draw 30.3% (Δ+0%) | Genoa 41.2% (Δ+0%).
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25 vs Team A
Feb 1 vs Team B
Feb 8 vs Team C
Pisa O. Hiljemark
O. Hiljemark
VS
Genoa D. De Rossi
D. De Rossi
0.6
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.31
0.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Roma Rank: L
Torino Rank: L
Como Rank: L
Cagliari Rank: W
Juventus Rank: L
Bologna Rank: L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Sassuolo Rank: W
Juventus Rank: L
Udinese Rank: L
Hellas Verona Rank: W
Roma Rank: W
Inter Rank: L
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 2 - 1
1
No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Pisa
28.5%
Draw
30.33%
Away Genoa
41.17%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
12.17
22.84
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Pisa
Genoa
Power Score
12.17
22.84
League Position
20
13
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Pisa — Opponent-weighted form score
Genoa — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Pisa Genoa

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 3 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Pisa PIS Home
3 matches
Genoa GEN Away
Match Record
0
Wins
1
2
Draws
2
1
Losses
0
Goals
1
Goals Scored
2
2
Goals Conceded
1
-1
Goal Difference
+1
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-16T01:07:34+00:00

STARTING XI - EXPECTED

Pitch
A. Šemper
1 A. Šemper
A. Calabresi
33 A. Calabresi
A. Caracciolo
4 A. Caracciolo
S. Canestrelli
5 S. Canestrelli
I. Touré
15 I. Touré
M. Höjholt
8 M. Höjholt
M. Aebischer
20 M. Aebischer
S. Angori
3 S. Angori
M. Marcel Léris
7 M. Marcel Léris
M. Tramoni
10 M. Tramoni
S. Moreo
32 S. Moreo
J. Bijlow
16 J. Bijlow
J. Vásquez Ibarra
22 J. Vásquez Ibarra
L. Skiri Oestigaard
5 L. Skiri Oestigaard
A. Marcandalli
27 A. Marcandalli
S. Sabelli
20 S. Sabelli
T. Baldanzi
8 T. Baldanzi
P. Masini
73 P. Masini
A. Martín Caricol
3 A. Martín Caricol
V. Carvalho Oliveira
9 V. Carvalho Oliveira
J. Messias
10 J. Messias
L. Colombo
29 L. Colombo

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 19, 2026, 04:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Serie A, Italy · Round 33 · Regular Season
Stadium
Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani
Capacity
10442
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Valerio Crezzini
Domenico Palermo
Thomas Miniutti
Andrea Colombo

Expected Lineup

Referee : Valerio Crezzini

Starting XI ▼

1
Adrian Semper
Adrian Semper Goalkeeper
6.92
3
Samuele Angori
Samuele Angori Midfielder
6.74
7
Mehdi Léris
Mehdi Léris Midfielder
6.76
10
Matteo Tramoni
Matteo Tramoni Midfielder
6.73
15
Idrissa Touré
Idrissa Touré Midfielder
6.72
32
Stefano Moreo
Stefano Moreo Centre Forward
6.92
4
Antonio Caracciolo
Antonio Caracciolo Centre Back
6.72
5
Simone Canestrelli
Simone Canestrelli Left Back
6.63
8
Malthe Højholt
Malthe Højholt Central Midfield
6.46
20
Michel Aebischer
Michel Aebischer Central Midfield
6.86
33
Arturo Calabresi
Arturo Calabresi Right Back
6.53
Referee : Valerio Crezzini

Starting XI ▼

16
Justin Bijlow
Justin Bijlow Goalkeeper
6.86
3
Aarón Martín
Aarón Martín Midfielder
6.96
9
Vitinha
Vitinha Midfielder
6.78
10
Junior Messias
Junior Messias Midfielder
6.89
20
Stefano Sabelli
Stefano Sabelli Midfielder
6.71
29
Lorenzo Colombo
Lorenzo Colombo Centre Forward
6.69
5
Leo Østigård
Leo Østigård Centre Back
7.12
8
Tommaso Baldanzi
Tommaso Baldanzi Central Midfield
6.73
22
Johan Vásquez
Johan Vásquez Left Back
6.85
27
Alessandro Marcandalli
Alessandro Marcandalli Right Back
6.56
73
Patrizio Masini
Patrizio Masini Central Midfield
6.78

CONCLUSION

Expect Genoa to control proceedings against a Pisa team low on confidence from recent results. The visitors' better league position and form record provide them with a platform to secure all three points on the road. While home crowds can inspire underdogs to produce surprises, the power differential suggests the away team holds the upper hand. Both sides showed varied outcomes in their previous matches, yet Genoa's wins carry more weight in this context. Coaches must focus on maintaining structure throughout the ninety minutes to avoid costly errors. Ultimately this game represents a chance for the 13th-placed outfit to distance themselves from lower teams and for Pisa to begin a recovery. Success will likely stem from effective pressing and capitalizing on any transitional opportunities that arise during play.

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