Paris Saint Germain vs Brest Prediction, Preview and Stats

France flag 2025/2026 Ligue 1, France
Parc des Princes Sun, 10 May - 7:00 PM
Ligue 1
Paris Saint Germain PSG
Versus
Brest B29
KICKOFF : Sun, 10 May - 7:00 PM
Round 33 Regular Season

CONTEXT

Paris Saint-Germain host Brest at Parc des Princes in Ligue 1 regular season play for the 2025/2026 season. As league leaders in 1st place, PSG hold a commanding 11-position advantage over 12th-placed Brest, reflecting their structural superiority. The hosts boast a power score of 94.75 against Brest's 72.75, yielding a substantial 22-point edge that underscores squad depth and quality. Form metrics further tilt the scales, with PSG at 24.83 compared to Brest's meager 5.17, signaling consistent performance versus inconsistency. Home advantage amplifies PSG's strengths in a venue where they thrive. Although detailed efficiency, transition, and set piece data are unavailable due to absent xG metrics and low-confidence proxies, the overarching analytics paint a clear picture of dominance. Brest faces an uphill battle against a well-oiled machine poised for points.

TL;DR

  • Structural: Paris Saint Germain leads Ligue 1 in 1st place, 11 positions ahead of 12th-placed Brest, holding a 22-point power advantage.
  • Form: Paris Saint Germain's form score of 24.83 greatly surpasses Brest's 5.17.
  • Squad: Paris Saint Germain's squad power score of 94.75 outrates Brest's 72.75.
  • Efficiency: Efficiency data is unavailable for this fixture.
  • Transition: Transition play metrics are not provided.
  • Set pieces: Set piece data unavailable with low confidence and proxy usage for both teams.
  • xVariable: xG variables inaccessible due to data limitations.
  • Market: Paris Saint Germain 79% (Δ-1%) | Draw 13.1% (Δ+-0%) | Brest 7.9% (Δ+1%).
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25 vs Team A
Feb 1 vs Team B
Feb 8 vs Team C
Paris Saint Germain L. Martínez García
L. Martínez García
VS
Brest E. Roy
E. Roy
2.26
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.47
2.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Lorient Rank: 74 D
Angers SCO Rank: 67 W
Nantes Rank: 65 W
Olympique Lyonnais Rank: 81 L
Toulouse Rank: 73 W
Nice Rank: 72 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Paris Rank: 72 L
Lens Rank: 82 D
Nantes Rank: 64 D
Rennes Rank: 79 L
Auxerre Rank: 70 L
Monaco Rank: 80 L
18
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
18 - 2 - 0
0
No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Paris Saint Germain
79%
Draw
13.13%
Away Brest
7.87%

Movement

Changes since opening
Paris Saint Germain
-1.03%
Draw
-0.01%
Brest
+1.04%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
94.75
72.75
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Paris Saint Germain
Brest
Power Score
94.75
72.75
League Position
1
12
Global Rank
5
143

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Paris Saint Germain — Opponent-weighted form score
Brest — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Paris Saint Germain Brest

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 20 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Paris Saint Germain PSG Home
20 matches
Brest B29 Away
Match Record
18
Wins
0
2
Draws
2
0
Losses
18
Goals
55
Goals Scored
15
15
Goals Conceded
55
+40
Goal Difference
-40

Data last updated: 2026-05-06T02:01:33+00:00

General Information

Date & Time :
May 10, 2026, 07:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Ligue 1, France · Round 33 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Parc des Princes
Capacity :
48583
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Jérôme Brisard
Alexis Auger
Steven Torregrossa
Geoffrey Kubler

Squad

Referee : Jérôme Brisard

Squad ▼

39
Matvey Safonov
Matvey Safonov Goalkeeper
30
Lucas Chevalier
Lucas Chevalier Goalkeeper
89
Renato Bellucci Marin
Renato Bellucci Marin Goalkeeper
5
Marcos Aoás Corrêa
Marcos Aoás Corrêa Defender
21
Lucas Hernández Pi
Lucas Hernández Pi Defender
2
Achraf Hakimi Mouh
Achraf Hakimi Mouh Defender
51
William Joel Pacho Tenorio
William Joel Pacho Tenorio Defender
6
Illia Zabarnyi
Illia Zabarnyi Defender
25
Nuno Mendes
Nuno Mendes Defender
4
Lucas Lopes Beraldo
Lucas Lopes Beraldo Defender
8
Fabián Ruiz Peña
Fabián Ruiz Peña Midfielder
17
Vitor Machado Ferreira
Vitor Machado Ferreira Midfielder
87
João Pedro Gonçalves Neves
João Pedro Gonçalves Neves Midfielder
33
Warren Zaire Emery
Warren Zaire Emery Midfielder
24
Senny Mayulu
Senny Mayulu Midfielder
27
Pedro Fernández Sarmiento
Pedro Fernández Sarmiento Midfielder
10
Ousmane Dembélé
Ousmane Dembélé Attacker
7
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia Attacker
19
Kang-In Lee
Kang-In Lee Attacker
9
Goncalo Matias Ramos
Goncalo Matias Ramos Attacker
29
Bradley Barcola
Bradley Barcola Attacker
14
Desire Doue
Desire Doue Attacker
47
Quentin Ndjantou Mbitcha
Quentin Ndjantou Mbitcha Attacker
49
Ibrahim Mbaye
Ibrahim Mbaye Attacker
Referee : Jérôme Brisard

Squad ▼

1
Radosław Majecki
Radosław Majecki Goalkeeper
30
Grégoire Coudert
Grégoire Coudert Goalkeeper
50
Noah Jauny
Noah Jauny Goalkeeper
77
Kenny Lala
Kenny Lala Defender
5
Brendan Chardonnet
Brendan Chardonnet Defender
44
Soumaula Coulibaly
Soumaula Coulibaly Defender
2
Bradley Locko
Bradley Locko Defender
27
Daouda Guindo
Daouda Guindo Defender
4
Michel Junior Diaz
Michel Junior Diaz Defender
12
Tolikpaley Luc Evrad Zogbe
Tolikpaley Luc Evrad Zogbe Defender
71
Raphaël Marc Le Guen
Raphaël Marc Le Guen Defender
24
Lucas Tousart
Lucas Tousart Midfielder
8
Hugo Magnetti
Hugo Magnetti Midfielder
7
Eric Junior Dina Ebimbe
Eric Junior Dina Ebimbe Midfielder
13
Joris Chotard
Joris Chotard Midfielder
23
Kamory Doumbia
Kamory Doumbia Midfielder
33
Hamidou Makalou
Hamidou Makalou Midfielder
10
Romain Del Castillo
Romain Del Castillo Attacker
19
Ludovic Ajorque
Ludovic Ajorque Attacker
17
Mama Samba Baldé
Mama Samba Baldé Attacker
14
Rémy Labeau Lascary
Rémy Labeau Lascary Attacker
99
Pathé Mboup
Pathé Mboup Attacker
29
Serigne Diop
Serigne Diop Attacker

CONCLUSION

Paris Saint-Germain approach this Ligue 1 clash with every metric in their favor, from 1st-place standing and 22-point power lead over Brest to superior form of 24.83 against 5.17. Home soil at Parc des Princes enhances their control, leveraging squad rating disparities. Lacking granular efficiency, transition, or set piece insights due to xG unavailability, analysis hinges on core strengths like positioning and momentum. Brest's mid-table status demands a flawless display to compete, but PSG's cohesion suggests they dictate tempo and convert opportunities efficiently. This fixture highlights league hierarchy, positioning the leaders for a solid win to extend dominance.

Paris Saint Germain vs Brest preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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