Osijek vs Varaždin Prediction, Preview and Stats

Croatia flag 2025/2026 1. HNL, Croatia
Stadion Gradski vrt Tomorrow - 6:15 PM
1. HNL
Osijek Osijek
Versus
Varaždin Varaždin
KICKOFF : Tomorrow - 6:15 PM
Round 30 Regular Season

CONTEXT

Osijek face Varaždin in a 1. HNL Regular Season match at the Stadion Gradski vrt during the 2025/2026 season. The home side currently occupy ninth position in the league table and will be eager to improve their standing against a Varaždin team that sits comfortably in fourth. With power scores of 22.48 for Osijek and 23.92 for the visitors, there is a small advantage in favor of Varaždin. However, home advantage cannot be overlooked. Osijek come into this game in decent form, recording three wins, two draws, and one loss in their last six matches, highlighted by a recent away victory over Rijeka. Varaždin have also performed well, with two wins, three draws, and one defeat from six outings, including a win against Slaven Koprivnica at home. Limited data on efficiency and set pieces adds an element of unpredictability, as both teams use proxy metrics with low confidence. This fixture could hinge on which side better manages the midfield and exploits any defensive lapses.

TL;DR

  • Structural: Home team Osijek in 9th place host 4th-placed Varaždin. Slight power score advantage to the away side by 1.4 points.
  • Form: Osijek: W3 D2 L1 from 6. Varaždin: W2 D3 L1 from 6. Both teams enter on the back of wins.
  • Squad: Limited squad information available. Both sides expected to utilize full squad strength for this important league tie.
  • Efficiency: Efficiency metrics unavailable with low confidence proxies in use for both Osijek and Varaždin.
  • Transition: Varaždin likely to focus on structured transitions from their higher league position. Osijek to use home crowd to dictate play.
  • Set pieces: Set piece reliance shows low confidence and proxy data. No distinct advantage evident for either team.
  • xVariable: xG and advanced variables not available for this fixture, adding uncertainty to pre-match analysis.
  • Market: Osijek 40.9% (Δ+0%) | Draw 29% (Δ+0%) | Varaždin 30.2% (Δ+0%).
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25 vs Team A
Feb 1 vs Team B
Feb 8 vs Team C
Osijek T. Radotic
T. Radotic
VS
Varaždin N. Šafarić
N. Šafarić
0.95
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.45
1.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Rijeka Rank: W
Dinamo Zagreb Rank: L
Slaven Koprivnica Rank: D
Gorica Rank: D
Istra 1961 Rank: W
Vukovar Rank: W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Slaven Koprivnica Rank: W
Gorica Rank: D
Istra 1961 Rank: L
Vukovar Rank: W
Lokomotiva Zagreb Rank: D
Hajduk Split Rank: D
17
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
17 - 14 - 10
10
No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Osijek
40.88%
Draw
28.96%
Away Varaždin
30.17%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
22.48
23.92
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Osijek
Varaždin
Power Score
22.48
23.92
League Position
9
4
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Osijek — Opponent-weighted form score
Varaždin — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Osijek Varaždin

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 41 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Osijek Osijek Home
41 matches
Varaždin Varaždin Away
Match Record
17
Wins
10
14
Draws
14
10
Losses
17
Goals
55
Goals Scored
44
44
Goals Conceded
55
+11
Goal Difference
-11
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-16T00:04:03+00:00

STARTING XI - EXPECTED

Pitch
M. Malenica
31 M. Malenica
D. Bukvić
39 D. Bukvić
I. Kolarik
49 I. Kolarik
J. Mersinaj
5 J. Mersinaj
D. Čolina
38 D. Čolina
A. Matković
34 A. Matković
O. Petrusenko
16 O. Petrusenko
D. Mejía Moscoso
6 D. Mejía Moscoso
S. Akere
57 S. Akere
M. Jovičić
98 M. Jovičić
N. Omerović
11 N. Omerović
O. Zelenika
1 O. Zelenika
A. Boršić
25 A. Boršić
R. Punčec
14 R. Punčec
L. Škaričić
4 L. Škaričić
I. Canjuga
28 I. Canjuga
D. Puclin
6 D. Puclin
A. Latković
10 A. Latković
F. Maglica
23 F. Maglica
L. Mamić
22 L. Mamić
M. Vuk
7 M. Vuk
I. Mamut
17 I. Mamut

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 17, 2026, 06:15 PM
Competition
2025/2026 1. HNL, Croatia · Round 30 · Regular Season
Stadium
Stadion Gradski vrt
Capacity
1000
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair

Expected Lineup

Starting XI ▼

31
Marko Malenica
Marko Malenica Goalkeeper
6.91
98
Miloš Jovičić
Miloš Jovičić Centre Forward
6.4
57
Samuel Akere
Samuel Akere Attacker
6.8
11
Nail Omerovic
Nail Omerovic Attacker
6.93
5
Jon Mersinaj
Jon Mersinaj Left Back
6.59
34
Anton Matkovic
Anton Matkovic Central Midfield
6.66
38
David Colina
David Colina Left Back
6.69
49
Ivano Kolarik
Ivano Kolarik Right Back
6.55
6
David Mejía
David Mejía Central Midfield
6.7
16
Oleksandr Petrusenko
Oleksandr Petrusenko Central Midfield
6.66
39
Domagoj Bukvic
Domagoj Bukvic Right Back
6.64

Starting XI ▼

1
Oliver Zelenika
Oliver Zelenika Goalkeeper
6.87
23
Frane Maglica
Frane Maglica Midfielder
6.78
7
Matej Vuk
Matej Vuk Midfielder
6.8
22
Luka Mamic
Luka Mamic Midfielder
6.67
28
Ivan Canjuga
Ivan Canjuga Midfielder
6.46
17
Ivan Mamut
Ivan Mamut Centre Forward
7.01
14
Roberto Puncec
Roberto Puncec Centre Back
6.65
6
David Puclin
David Puclin Central Midfield
6.51
25
Antonio Borsic
Antonio Borsic Left Back
6.58
4
Luka Skaricic
Luka Skaricic Right Back
6.93
10
Aleksa Latkovic
Aleksa Latkovic Central Midfield
7.15

CONCLUSION

Varaždin enter with a marginal power advantage and superior league position, yet Osijek's home form provides a strong counter. Both sides boast respectable recent records, making for an even contest. Squad choices remain pivotal in the absence of detailed injury reports. Efficiency and set piece data are sparse, relying on proxies with low confidence. Transitions could be key to unlocking defenses. Without clear insights, the xVariable stays uncertain. This match looks set to be tightly fought, with the result likely depending on which team adapts better tactically in key moments.

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