Osasuna vs Atlético Madrid Prediction, Preview and Stats

Spain flag 2025/2026 La Liga, Spain
Estadio El Sadar Tue, 12 May - 7:30 PM
La Liga
Osasuna OSA
Versus
Atlético Madrid ATM
KICKOFF : Tue, 12 May - 7:30 PM
Round 36 Regular Season

CONTEXT

Osasuna host Atlético Madrid in La Liga (Regular Season) at Estadio El Sadar. Domestically, Osasuna sit 10th in the table while Atlético Madrid are 4th. Power ranking favours Atlético Madrid by 11 points heading into this fixture.

TL;DR

  • Structural: Atlético Madrid possess an 11-point power advantage (89.27 vs 78.32) and sit 4th to Osasuna's 10th in La Liga.
  • Form: Atlético Madrid hold a superior form score of 16.11 compared to Osasuna's 12.67.
  • Squad: Atlético Madrid's squad reflects greater overall power, supporting their higher league position.
  • Efficiency: Efficiency data is unavailable for both teams.
  • Transition: Transition metrics are not provided in available data.
  • Set pieces: Set piece data unavailable due to lack of xG, with low confidence proxies used.
  • xVariable: xG data unavailable for attack and defense on set pieces.
  • Market: Projection split: Osasuna 36.1% (Δ+0%) | Draw 27.9% (Δ+0%) | Atlético Madrid 36.1% (Δ+0%).
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25 vs Team A
Feb 1 vs Team B
Feb 8 vs Team C
Osasuna A. Lisci
A. Lisci
VS
Atlético Madrid D. Simeone
D. Simeone
1.39
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.7
1 i
Last 6 Opponents
Levante Rank: 74 D
FC Barcelona Rank: 96 L
Sevilla Rank: 72 W
Athletic Club Rank: 77 L
Real Betis Rank: 82 D
Deportivo Alavés Rank: 76 D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Celta de Vigo Rank: 80 D
Valencia Rank: 77 W
Athletic Club Rank: 77 W
Elche Rank: 73 L
Sevilla Rank: 73 L
FC Barcelona Rank: 97 L
9
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
9 - 3 - 23
23
No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Osasuna
36.06%
Draw
27.88%
Away Atlético Madrid
36.06%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
78.32
89.27
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Osasuna
Atlético Madrid
Power Score
78.32
89.27
League Position
10
4
Global Rank
78
15

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Osasuna — Opponent-weighted form score
Atlético Madrid — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Osasuna Atlético Madrid

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 35 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Osasuna OSA Home
35 matches
Atlético Madrid ATM Away
Match Record
9
Wins
23
3
Draws
3
23
Losses
9
Goals
32
Goals Scored
56
56
Goals Conceded
32
-24
Goal Difference
+24

Data last updated: 2026-05-07T00:53:00+00:00

General Information

Date & Time :
May 12, 2026, 07:30 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 La Liga, Spain · Round 36 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Estadio El Sadar
Capacity :
23576
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair

Squad

Squad ▼

13
Aitor Fernández Abarisketa
Aitor Fernández Abarisketa Goalkeeper
1
Sergio Herrera Pirón
Sergio Herrera Pirón Goalkeeper
19
Valentin Rosier
Valentin Rosier Defender
20
Javier Galán Gil
Javier Galán Gil Defender
3
Álvaro Juan Cruz Armada
Álvaro Juan Cruz Armada Defender
24
Alejandro Catena Marugán
Alejandro Catena Marugán Defender
5
Jorge Herrando Oroz
Jorge Herrando Oroz Defender
22
Flavien-Enzo Boyomos
Flavien-Enzo Boyomos Defender
23
Abel Bretones Cruz
Abel Bretones Cruz Defender
41
Íñigo Arguibide Goñi
Íñigo Arguibide Goñi Defender
16
Moisés Gómez Bordonado
Moisés Gómez Bordonado Midfielder
6
Lucas Torró Marset
Lucas Torró Marset Midfielder
7
Jon Moncayola Tollar
Jon Moncayola Tollar Midfielder
10
Aimar Oroz
Aimar Oroz Midfielder
8
Iker Muñoz Cameros
Iker Muñoz Cameros Midfielder
29
Asier Osambela Larraya
Asier Osambela Larraya Midfielder
17
Ante Budimir
Ante Budimir Attacker
14
Rubén García Santos
Rubén García Santos Attacker
11
Enrique Barja Afonso
Enrique Barja Afonso Attacker
15
Raul Moro Prescoli
Raul Moro Prescoli Attacker
9
Raúl García de Haro
Raúl García de Haro Attacker
2
Iker Benito Sánchez
Iker Benito Sánchez Attacker
21
Víctor Muñoz Villanueva
Víctor Muñoz Villanueva Attacker

Squad ▼

13
Jan Oblak
Jan Oblak Goalkeeper
1
Juan Agustín Musso
Juan Agustín Musso Goalkeeper
15
Clément Lenglet
Clément Lenglet Defender
24
Robin Aime Robert Le Normand
Robin Aime Robert Le Normand Defender
17
Dávid Hancko
Dávid Hancko Defender
2
José María Giménez de Vargas
José María Giménez de Vargas Defender
14
Marcos Llorente Moreno
Marcos Llorente Moreno Defender
16
Nahuel Molina Lucero
Nahuel Molina Lucero Defender
3
Matteo Ruggeri
Matteo Ruggeri Defender
18
M. Pubill Pagès
M. Pubill Pagès Defender
6
Jorge Resurrección Merodio
Jorge Resurrección Merodio Midfielder
5
João Lucas de Souza Cardoso
João Lucas de Souza Cardoso Midfielder
8
Pablo Barrios Rivas
Pablo Barrios Rivas Midfielder
21
Obed Vaargas
Obed Vaargas Midfielder
4
Rodrigo Mendoza Martinez Moya
Rodrigo Mendoza Martinez Moya Midfielder
22
Ademola Lookman
Ademola Lookman Attacker
9
Alexander Sørloth
Alexander Sørloth Attacker
7
Antoine Griezmann
Antoine Griezmann Attacker
23
Nicolás Iván González
Nicolás Iván González Attacker
10
Alejandro Baena Rodríguez
Alejandro Baena Rodríguez Attacker
11
Thiago Ezequiel Almada
Thiago Ezequiel Almada Attacker
19
Julián Álvarez
Julián Álvarez Attacker
20
Giuliano Simeone
Giuliano Simeone Attacker

CONCLUSION

This matchup pits Osasuna's home tenacity against Atlético Madrid's quality and form edge, promising a tactical chess match at El Sadar. With even projections across outcomes, expect a cagey encounter where Atlético's power (89.27) and table position (4th) give them the tools to edge ahead, though Osasuna's grit could force a stalemate. Simeone's visitors thrive in such battles, leveraging structural superiority for control. Watch for midfield dominance to unlock defenses in a game low on clear favorites.

Osasuna vs Atlético Madrid preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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