Orenburg vs Spartak Moskva Prediction, Preview and Stats

Russia flag 2025/2026 Premier League, Russia
Stadion Gazovik Sun, 22 Mar - 10:45 AM
Premier League
Orenburg Orenburg
0 Winner 2
Spartak Moskva Spartak Moskva
Full Time Sun, 22 Mar 10:45 AM
Round 22 Regular Season
|
Goal
Levi García - 17'
Ruslan Litvinov - 25'

CONTEXT

The match between Orenburg and Spartak Moskva has officially finished, resulting in a 0-0 full-time draw. Curiously, match data indicates Spartak Moskva held a 2-0 advantage at the half-time break, though the final whistle ultimately confirmed a scoreless stalemate. Spartak Moskva entered the contest as the clearly stronger team, making this drawn result a significant deviation from

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Spartak Moskva showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
No referee statistics available.
Orenburg I. Akhmetzyanov
I. Akhmetzyanov
VS
Spartak Moskva J. Carcedo Mardones
J. Carcedo Mardones
0.92
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.67
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Dynamo Makhachkala Rank: 56 L
Zenit Rank: 79 W
Akron Rank: 55 W
Akhmat Grozny Rank: 60 L
CSKA Moskva Rank: 72 L
Baltika Kaliningrad Rank: 67 D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Zenit Rank: 79 L
Akron Rank: 54 W
Sochi Rank: 50 W
Dinamo Moskva Rank: 71 D
Baltika Kaliningrad Rank: 67 L
CSKA Moskva Rank: 72 W
4
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
4 - 1 - 8
8

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Orenburg
0%
Draw
0%
Away Spartak Moskva
0%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
52.12
72.55
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Orenburg
Spartak Moskva
Power Score
52.12
72.55
League Position
15
6
Global Rank
706
150

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Orenburg — Opponent-weighted form score
Spartak Moskva — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Orenburg Spartak Moskva

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Orenburg

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Spartak Moskva

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Orenburg ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Spartak Moskva
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
35.89
29.64
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
29.64
35.89
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Orenburg +0.69 Efficiency Index
vs
Spartak Moskva -0.69 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Orenburg
Spartak Moskva
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Orenburg ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Spartak Moskva
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Orenburg Spartak Moskva
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Orenburg Spartak Moskva
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Orenburg
Spartak Moskva
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 13 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Orenburg Orenburg Home
13 matches
Spartak Moskva Spartak Moskva Away
Match Record
4
Wins
8
1
Draws
1
8
Losses
4
Goals
15
Goals Scored
21
21
Goals Conceded
15
-6
Goal Difference
+6
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-03-27T12:23:48+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-1-4-1
Pitch
B. Ovsyannikov
Russia
1 B. Ovsyannikov
F. Moufi
Morocco
18 (C) F. Moufi
J. Palacios Santos
Colombia
6 J. Palacios Santos
D. Khotulev
Russia
4 D. Khotulev
D. Vedernikov
Russia
3 D. Vedernikov
E. Santos Queiroz
Substitution
Brazil
37 E. Santos Queiroz
T. Avanesian
Substitution
Armenia
59 T. Avanesian
J. Thompson
Chile
16 J. Thompson
D. Puebla
Substitution
Argentina
8 D. Puebla
F. Gürlük
Substitution
Turkey
7 F. Gürlük
M. Savelyev
Russia
9 M. Savelyev
A. Maximenko
Russia
98 A. Maximenko
R. Zobnin
Russia
47 (C) R. Zobnin
A. Djiku
Ghana
4 A. Djiku
C. Wooh
France
3 C. Wooh
D. Denisov
Russia
97 D. Denisov
R. Litvinov
Russia
68 R. Litvinov
J. Costa Martins
Substitution
Brazil
10 J. Costa Martins
E. Barco
Argentina
5 E. Barco
N. Umyarov
Substitution
Russia
18 N. Umyarov
G. Carvalho Fernandes
Substitution
Portugal
83 G. Carvalho Fernandes
L. Garcia
Substitution
Trinidad and Tobago
11 L. Garcia

General Information

Date & Time
Mar 22, 2026, 10:45 AM
Competition
2025/2026 Premier League, Russia · Round 22 · Regular Season
Stadium
Stadion Gazovik
Capacity
7520
Attendance
7810
Pitch Surface
Artificial turf
Weather
☀️ , Clear
Referees
Rafael Shafeev
Denis Petrov
Yaroslav Kalinichenko
Nikita Novikov

Statistics

Possession
Orenburg
46%
Spartak Moskva
54%

Top Statistics

0 Goals 2
1 Big Chances Created 2
4 Shots 4
43 Dangerous attacks 46
45 Possession 55
7 Corners 3
21 Free kicks 15
1 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

5 Substitutions 5
9 Goal Attempts 9
65 Ball Safe 77
2 Injuries 1
17 Throwins 18
21 Successful Headers 13
5 Successful Dribbles 4
15 Dribble Attempts 8
0 Assists 1
33 Successful Dribbles Percentage 50
6 Goal Kicks 8
1 Hit Woodwork 1

Attacking

76 Attacks 87
1 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

348 Passes 433
72 Successful Passes Percentage 81
72 Long Passes 50
251 Successful Passes 352
31 Successful Long Passes 18
43 Successful Long Passes Percentage 36

Defensive

11 Tackles 17
7 Interceptions 11
2 Saves 4

Build-up

11 Accurate Crosses 3
19 Total Crosses 18

Discipline

15 Fouls 21
1 Offsides 2

Lineup

Referee : Rafael Shafeev

Starting XI ▼

1
B. Ovsyannikov
B. Ovsyannikov Goalkeeper
6.42
3
Danila Vedernikov
Danila Vedernikov Defender
6.5
4
D. Khotulev
D. Khotulev Defender
6.75
6
Jhon Alex Palacios
Jhon Alex Palacios Defender
6.34
18
Fahd Moufi
Fahd Moufi (C) Defender
6.79
7
E. Gürlük
E. Gürlük Midfielder
7.35
29
Anas El Mahraoui
Anas El Mahraoui
Attacker69'
6.63
8
Damián Puebla
Damián Puebla Midfielder
6.72
30
G. Guzina
G. Guzina
Attacker83'
6.6
16
J. Thompson
J. Thompson Midfielder
7.06
37
Du Queiroz
Du Queiroz Midfielder
6.23
78
Ruslan Kul
Ruslan Kul
Midfielder78'
6.68
59
Tigran Avanesyan
Tigran Avanesyan Midfielder
6.55
57
E. Bolotov
E. Bolotov
Midfielder46'
6.66
9
M. Savelyev
M. Savelyev Attacker
6.92
Referee : Rafael Shafeev

Starting XI ▼

98
Aleksandr Maksimenko
Aleksandr Maksimenko Goalkeeper
7.73
3
Christopher Wooh
Christopher Wooh Defender
7.45
4
Alexander Djiku
Alexander Djiku Defender
7.33
47
Roman Zobnin
Roman Zobnin (C) Defender
7.3
97
Daniil Denisov
Daniil Denisov Defender
7.11
5
Esequiel Barco
Esequiel Barco Midfielder
7.75
10
Marquinhos
Marquinhos Midfielder
6.74
62
Pavel Polekh
Pavel Polekh
Attacker89'
6.64
18
Nail Umyarov
Nail Umyarov Midfielder
6.58
35
Christopher Martins
Christopher Martins
Midfielder88'
68
Ruslan Litvinov
Ruslan Litvinov Midfielder
7.79
83
Gedson Fernandes
Gedson Fernandes Midfielder
6.72
7
Pablo Solari
Pablo Solari
Midfielder82'
6.44
11
Levi García
Levi García Attacker
7.73
9
Manfred Ugalde
Manfred Ugalde
Attacker61'
6.56

Events

2ND-HALF
89'
Event
Pavel Polekh → Marquinhos
10th Substitution
88'
Event
Christopher Martins → Nail Umyarov
9th Substitution
Event
G. Guzina → Damián Puebla
8th Substitution
83'
Event
5th Substitution
82'
82'
Event
Pablo Solari → Gedson Fernandes
6th Substitution
82'
Event
7th Substitution
Event
Ruslan Kul → Du Queiroz
4th Substitution
78'
Event
Anas El Mahraoui → E. Gürlük
3rd Substitution
69'
61'
Event
Manfred Ugalde → Levi García
2nd Substitution
Event
E. Bolotov → Tigran Avanesyan
1st Substitution
46'
1ST-HALF
Event
Tigran Avanesyan
Argument / 1st Yellowcard
39'
39'
Event
Marquinhos
Time wasting / 2nd Yellowcard
25'
Event
Ruslan Litvinov
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
17'
Event
Levi García
Right foot shot / 1st Goal

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Spartak Moskva exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

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