Nottingham Forest vs Porto Prediction, Preview and Stats

Europe flag 2025/2026 Europa League, Europe
The City Ground Today - 7:00 PM
Europa League
Nottingham Forest NFO
Versus
Porto POR
KICKOFF : Today - 7:00 PM
Quarter Finals Leg 2 of 2 Aggregate : 1 - 1

CONTEXT

As the Europa League quarter-final tie heads into its concluding chapter, Nottingham Forest prepare to face Porto at their home stadium, The City Ground. The first leg ended in a 1-1 stalemate, meaning the aggregate score is perfectly balanced entering this second leg. Domestic form shows the home side in 13th position with a recent record of three wins, a draw and two defeats over six games. Meanwhile, the visitors sit fifth in their league and boast a superior sequence of four wins and two draws without defeat. Given that Porto possess the higher power score, they enter as slight favorites in the eyes of some analysts. However, the passionate support from the Nottingham crowd could inspire the home team to produce a standout performance. Both managers will emphasize the need for concentration throughout the ninety minutes plus any additional time. Success in this match opens the door to the semi-finals of the competition, creating significant motivation for the players involved. The stage is set for a memorable European night in England.

TL;DR

  • Structural: This second leg of the quarter-finals features a 1-1 aggregate scoreline, with Nottingham Forest hosting at The City Ground in a bid to reach the semi-finals.
  • Form: Nottingham Forest hold a W3 D1 L2 record recently while Porto boast an unbeaten W4 D2 L0, following their stalemate in the initial leg.
  • Squad: Limited information available, yet both clubs are anticipated to deploy strong squads capable of competing in this European knockout fixture.
  • Efficiency: Efficiency statistics prove unavailable, restricting deeper analysis of how each team converts chances or defends against threats.
  • Transition: Effective transitions from defence to attack could prove decisive, particularly for the in-form Portuguese visitors looking to counter rapidly.
  • Set pieces: Insights into set pieces register low confidence with proxy data in use, offering minimal guidance ahead of the contest.
  • xVariable: Absence of reliable xG metrics shifts focus onto power scores that favor Porto entering this away assignment.
  • Market: Nottingham Forest 39.3% (Δ-0.4%) | Draw 30.7% (Δ+-0%) | Porto 30% (Δ+0.5%).
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25 vs Team A
Feb 1 vs Team B
Feb 8 vs Team C
Nottingham Forest V. de Oliveira Lopes Pereira
V. de Oliveira Lopes Pereira
VS
Porto F. Farioli
F. Farioli
1.82
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
2
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Porto Rank: D
FC Midtjylland Rank: W
FC Midtjylland Rank: L
Fenerbahçe Rank: L
Fenerbahçe Rank: W
Ferencvárosi Rank: W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Nottingham Forest Rank: D
VfB Stuttgart Rank: W
VfB Stuttgart Rank: W
Rangers Rank: W
Viktoria Plzeň Rank: D
Malmö FF Rank: W
1
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
1 - 1 - 0
0
No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Nottingham Forest
39.34%
Draw
30.69%
Away Porto
29.97%

Movement

Changes since opening
Nottingham Forest
-0.43%
Draw
-0.03%
Porto
+0.45%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
30.74
41.43
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Nottingham Forest
Porto
Power Score
30.74
41.43
League Position
13
5
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Nottingham Forest — Opponent-weighted form score
Porto — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Nottingham Forest Porto

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 2 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Nottingham Forest NFO Home
2 matches
Porto POR Away
Match Record
1
Wins
0
1
Draws
1
0
Losses
1
Goals
3
Goals Scored
1
1
Goals Conceded
3
+2
Goal Difference
-2
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-16T00:02:06+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-3-3
Pitch
S. Ortega Moreno
Germany
27 S. Ortega Moreno
T. Olaoluwa Aina
Nigeria
34 T. Olaoluwa Aina
M. Santiago Costa dos Santos
Brazil
5 M. Santiago Costa dos Santos
N. Milenković
Serbia
31 N. Milenković
N. Williams
Wales
3 N. Williams
I. Sangaré
Ivory Coast
6 I. Sangaré
E. Anderson
England
8 E. Anderson
O. Giraud-Hutchinson
Jamaica
21 O. Giraud-Hutchinson
M. Gibbs-White
England
10 M. Gibbs-White
C. Hudson-Odoi
England
7 C. Hudson-Odoi
I. da Cruz
Brazil
19 I. da Cruz
D. Meireles Costa
Portugal
99 D. Meireles Costa
Z. Sanusi
Nigeria
12 Z. Sanusi
J. Bednarek
Poland
5 J. Bednarek
T. da Silva
Brazil
3 T. da Silva
A. Costa
Portugal
20 A. Costa
G. Veiga Novas
Spain
10 G. Veiga Novas
P. Rosario
Netherlands
13 P. Rosario
S. Fofana
Ivory Coast
42 S. Fofana
B. Sainz Eguskiza
Spain
17 B. Sainz Eguskiza
T. Moffi
Nigeria
29 T. Moffi
W. Gomes Carvalho Santos
Brazil
7 W. Gomes Carvalho Santos

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 16, 2026, 07:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Europa League, Europe · Quarter Finals · Leg 2 of 2 · Aggregate : 1 - 1
Stadium
The City Ground
Capacity
30445
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Hessel Steegstra
Jan de Vries
Allard Lindhout
Danny Desmond Makkelie

Lineup

Referee : Danny Desmond Makkelie

Starting XI ▼

27
Stefan Ortega
Stefan Ortega Goalkeeper
6.83
3
Neco Williams
Neco Williams Defender
6.96
5
Murillo
Murillo Defender
6.75
31
Nikola Milenković
Nikola Milenković Defender
6.98
34
Ola Aina
Ola Aina Defender
6.86
6
Ibrahim Sangaré
Ibrahim Sangaré Midfielder
6.89
8
Elliot Anderson
Elliot Anderson Midfielder
7.13
10
Morgan Gibbs-White
Morgan Gibbs-White Midfielder
6.93
7
Callum Hudson-Odoi
Callum Hudson-Odoi Attacker
7.19
19
Igor Jesus
Igor Jesus Attacker
7.19
21
Omari Hutchinson
Omari Hutchinson Attacker
7.09
Referee : Danny Desmond Makkelie

Starting XI ▼

99
Diogo Costa
Diogo Costa Goalkeeper
6.9
3
Thiago Silva
Thiago Silva Defender
7.04
5
Jan Bednarek
Jan Bednarek Defender
6.87
12
Zaidu Sanusi
Zaidu Sanusi Defender
6.69
20
Alberto Costa
Alberto Costa Defender
6.7
10
Gabri Veiga
Gabri Veiga Midfielder
7.19
13
Pablo Rosario
Pablo Rosario Midfielder
6.81
42
Seko Fofana
Seko Fofana Midfielder
7.09
7
William Gomes
William Gomes Attacker
6.83
17
Borja Sainz
Borja Sainz Attacker
6.89
29
Terem Moffi
Terem Moffi Attacker
6.62

CONCLUSION

Porto appear better placed overall thanks to their excellent recent form and superior power ranking. Nevertheless, the home advantage for Nottingham Forest in this second leg cannot be underestimated, especially with the tie level at 1-1. Creative play in midfield and clinical finishing will be essential for either team to break the deadlock. Defensive organization remains paramount to avoid conceding crucial away goals. Although data on efficiency and set pieces lacks depth, general observations point toward a competitive fixture. The outcome may hinge on individual brilliance or a momentary lapse in concentration. Should the match remain drawn after ninety minutes, extra time and possibly penalties will decide which side advances to the next round of the Europa League. Expect a tense and closely fought battle.

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