Nottingham Forest vs Aston Villa Prediction, Preview and Stats

Europe flag 2025/2026 Europa League, Europe
The City Ground Thu, 30 Apr - 7:00 PM
Europa League
Nottingham Forest NFO
Versus
Aston Villa AVL
KICKOFF : Thu, 30 Apr - 7:00 PM
Semi Finals Leg 1 of 2

CONTEXT

Nottingham Forest host Aston Villa at The City Ground in the first leg of the Europa League semi-finals, with the aggregate score locked at 0-0. Villa arrive as the stronger outfit, holding a power score of 38.52 to Forest's 32.18—a clear 6.3 point advantage. Form metrics underline Villa's edge too, scoring 50.06 against Forest's 37.28. In their domestic league, Villa sit proudly in 2nd place, while Forest languish at 13th. Nuno's men will lean on raucous home support and defensive solidity to frustrate Unai Emery's attacking threats. This knockout tie demands caution, with transitions and set pieces potentially decisive amid sparse advanced data. Villa's quality shines through, but Forest's grit could spark an upset in this high-stakes European night.

TL;DR

  • Structural: Aston Villa hold a 6.3 point power advantage as the stronger team over Nottingham Forest.
  • Form: Aston Villa lead form rankings with 50.06 versus Nottingham Forest's 37.28.
  • Squad: Aston Villa rank 2nd in the league, ahead of Nottingham Forest's 13th position.
  • Efficiency: Efficiency metrics unavailable for this matchup.
  • Transition: Transition play data unavailable for both teams.
  • Set pieces: Set piece xG data unavailable due to low confidence and proxy usage for both sides.
  • xVariable: xG variable stats not available as add-on disabled.
  • Market: Projection split: Nottingham Forest 36.7% (Δ+0%) | Draw 29.3% (Δ+0%) | Aston Villa 34% (Δ+0%).
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25 vs Team A
Feb 1 vs Team B
Feb 8 vs Team C
Nottingham Forest V. de Oliveira Lopes Pereira
V. de Oliveira Lopes Pereira
VS
Aston Villa U. Emery Etxegoien
U. Emery Etxegoien
1.82
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
3
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Porto Rank: W
Porto Rank: D
FC Midtjylland Rank: W
FC Midtjylland Rank: L
Fenerbahçe Rank: L
Fenerbahçe Rank: W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
3 i
Last 6 Opponents
Bologna Rank: W
Bologna Rank: W
LOSC Lille Rank: W
LOSC Lille Rank: W
Salzburg Rank: W
Fenerbahçe Rank: W
3
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
3 - 4 - 7
7
No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Nottingham Forest
36.71%
Draw
29.25%
Away Aston Villa
34.04%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
32.18
38.52
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Nottingham Forest
Aston Villa
Power Score
32.18
38.52
League Position
13
2
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Nottingham Forest — Opponent-weighted form score
Aston Villa — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Nottingham Forest Aston Villa

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 14 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Nottingham Forest NFO Home
14 matches
Aston Villa AVL Away
Match Record
3
Wins
7
4
Draws
4
7
Losses
3
Goals
21
Goals Scored
28
28
Goals Conceded
21
-7
Goal Difference
+7
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-23T01:15:40+00:00

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 30, 2026, 07:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Europa League, Europe · Semi Finals · Leg 1 of 2
Stadium
The City Ground
Capacity
30445
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair

Squad

Squad ▼

26
Matz Sels
Matz Sels Goalkeeper
27
Stefan Ortega Moreno
Stefan Ortega Moreno Goalkeeper
13
John Victor Maciel Furtado
John Victor Maciel Furtado Goalkeeper
18
Angus Gunn
Angus Gunn Goalkeeper
34
Temitayo Olufisayo Olaoluwa Aina
Temitayo Olufisayo Olaoluwa Aina Defender
30
Willy Boly
Willy Boly Defender
31
Nikola Milenković
Nikola Milenković Defender
3
Neco Williams
Neco Williams Defender
25
Luca Netz
Luca Netz Defender
4
Felipe Rodrigues
Felipe Rodrigues Defender
37
Nicolò Savona
Nicolò Savona Defender
44
Zach Abbott
Zach Abbott Defender
5
Murillo Santiago Costa dos Santos
Murillo Santiago Costa dos Santos Defender
23
Jair Paula da Cunha Filho
Jair Paula da Cunha Filho Defender
17
Eric Emanuel da Silva Moreira
Eric Emanuel da Silva Moreira Defender
10
Morgan Gibbs-White
Morgan Gibbs-White Midfielder
22
Ryan Yates
Ryan Yates Midfielder
6
Ibrahim Sangaré
Ibrahim Sangaré Midfielder
8
Elliott Anderson
Elliott Anderson Midfielder
16
Nicolás Martín Domínguez
Nicolás Martín Domínguez Midfielder
24
James Mcatee
James Mcatee Midfielder
21
Omari Giraud-Hutchinson
Omari Giraud-Hutchinson Midfielder
11
Chris Wood
Chris Wood Attacker
9
Taiwo Michael Awoniyi
Taiwo Michael Awoniyi Attacker
7
Callum Hudson-Odoi
Callum Hudson-Odoi Attacker
29
Dilane Bakwa
Dilane Bakwa Attacker
20
Lorenzo Lucca
Lorenzo Lucca Attacker
14
Dan Ndoye
Dan Ndoye Attacker
19
Igor Jesus Maciel da Cruz
Igor Jesus Maciel da Cruz Attacker

Squad ▼

23
Damián Emiliano Martínez
Damián Emiliano Martínez Goalkeeper
40
Marco Bizot
Marco Bizot Goalkeeper
5
Tyrone Mings
Tyrone Mings Defender
2
Matty Cash
Matty Cash Defender
4
Ezri Konsa Ngoyo
Ezri Konsa Ngoyo Defender
12
Lucas Digne
Lucas Digne Defender
3
Victor Nilsson Lindelöf
Victor Nilsson Lindelöf Defender
14
Pau Francisco Torres
Pau Francisco Torres Defender
22
Ian Maatsen
Ian Maatsen Defender
16
Andrés García Robledo
Andrés García Robledo Defender
6
Ross Barkley
Ross Barkley Midfielder
8
Youri Tielemans
Youri Tielemans Midfielder
44
Boubacar Kamara
Boubacar Kamara Midfielder
7
John McGinn
John McGinn Midfielder
10
Emiliano Buendía
Emiliano Buendía Midfielder
21
Douglas Luiz Soares de Paulo
Douglas Luiz Soares de Paulo Midfielder
27
Morgan Rogers
Morgan Rogers Midfielder
24
Amadou Zeund Georges Mvom Onana
Amadou Zeund Georges Mvom Onana Midfielder
9
Harvey Elliot
Harvey Elliot Midfielder
26
Lamar Bogarde
Lamar Bogarde Midfielder
18
Kevin Oghenetega Tamaraebi Bakumo-Abraham
Kevin Oghenetega Tamaraebi Bakumo-Abraham Attacker
11
Ollie Watkins
Ollie Watkins Attacker
31
Leon Bailey Butler
Leon Bailey Butler Attacker
19
Jadon Sancho
Jadon Sancho Attacker
47
Alysson Edward Franco da Rocha dos Santos
Alysson Edward Franco da Rocha dos Santos Attacker

CONCLUSION

Aston Villa's power and form superiority positions them to edge this first leg, yet Nottingham Forest's home advantage at The City Ground levels the playing field in a 0-0 tie. Villa's 2nd-place league standing highlights squad depth, contrasting Forest's mid-table scrap. Without detailed efficiency or set-piece insights, expect a tactical battle focused on transitions and solidity. Forest must capitalize on crowd energy to nick a lead, while Villa probe for away dominance. This semi-final opener sets up a tense second leg, with Villa favored to progress but Forest alive for surprises.

Related Football Previews

Explore League Previews

Europa League, Europe View all league clusters