Napoli vs Lazio Prediction, Preview and Stats

Italy flag 2025/2026 Serie A, Italy
Stadio Diego Armando Maradona Sat, 18 Apr - 4:00 PM
Serie A
Napoli NAP
Versus
Lazio LAZ
KICKOFF : Sat, 18 Apr - 4:00 PM
Round 33 Regular Season

CONTEXT

As Napoli prepare to host Lazio at the Stadio Diego Armando Maradona in this Serie A Regular Season match, the home team holds a significant advantage. Currently sitting in second place, Napoli have amassed an impressive form record of five wins and one draw from six matches, showcasing their title credentials. In contrast, Lazio occupy ninth position with a more modest three wins, one draw and two defeats in recent outings. The power scores underline this disparity, with Napoli at 35.49 against Lazio's 30.54, giving the hosts a five-point edge. After sharing the spoils with Parma last time out, Napoli will be keen to secure all three points. Lazio, reeling from a defeat to Fiorentina, must improve their away form to challenge the league leaders. This promises to be an intriguing battle between two sides with differing ambitions this season.

TL;DR

  • Structural: Napoli hold a clear edge with a power score of 35.49 to Lazio's 30.54 and a five-point advantage, sitting second versus ninth in the league.
  • Form: The hosts boast a superior form score of 88.89 with an unbeaten run of five wins and a draw, while the visitors sit at 55.56 following a loss to Fiorentina.
  • Squad: Napoli's squad appears better equipped for the demands of Serie A, offering more options than Lazio in this matchup.
  • Efficiency: Efficiency indicators are currently limited, yet Napoli's overall play suggests they will be more clinical in front of goal.
  • Transition: Napoli demonstrate strong transition capabilities that could catch Lazio off guard, especially given the away side's recent defensive displays.
  • Set pieces: With xG data unavailable and low confidence metrics, set pieces represent an area of uncertainty where both teams will seek to gain an advantage.
  • xVariable: The xVariable strongly supports Napoli, aligning with their higher power rating and impressive current form.
  • Market: Napoli 61.8% (Δ+0.9%) | Draw 24.8% (Δ+0.1%) | Lazio 13.4% (Δ-1%).
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25 vs Team A
Feb 1 vs Team B
Feb 8 vs Team C
Napoli A. Conte
A. Conte
VS
Lazio M. Sarri
M. Sarri
1.96
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.42
2.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Parma Rank: D
AC Milan Rank: W
Cagliari Rank: W
Lecce Rank: W
Torino Rank: W
Hellas Verona Rank: W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Fiorentina Rank: L
Parma Rank: D
Bologna Rank: W
AC Milan Rank: W
Sassuolo Rank: W
Torino Rank: L
21
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
21 - 10 - 13
13
No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Napoli
61.81%
Draw
24.82%
Away Lazio
13.37%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
35.49
30.54
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Napoli
Lazio
Power Score
35.49
30.54
League Position
2
9
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Napoli — Opponent-weighted form score
Lazio — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Napoli Lazio

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 44 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Napoli NAP Home
44 matches
Lazio LAZ Away
Match Record
21
Wins
13
10
Draws
10
13
Losses
21
Goals
75
Goals Scored
51
51
Goals Conceded
75
+24
Goal Difference
-24
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-16T02:16:15+00:00

STARTING XI

Pitch
V. Milinković Savić
Serbia
32 V. Milinković Savić
J. Nunes Jesus
Brazil
5 J. Nunes Jesus
A. Buongiorno
Italy
4 A. Buongiorno
M. Olivera Miramontes
Uruguay
17 M. Olivera Miramontes
M. Politano
Italy
21 M. Politano
S. Lobotka
Slovakia
68 S. Lobotka
A. Zambo Anguissa
Cameroon
99 A. Zambo Anguissa
L. Spinazzola
Italy
37 L. Spinazzola
K. De Bruyne
Belgium
11 K. De Bruyne
S. McTominay
Scotland
8 S. McTominay
R. Højlund
Denmark
19 R. Højlund
E. Motta
Italy
40 E. Motta
N. Varela Tavares
Portugal
17 N. Varela Tavares
O. Nielsen
Denmark
25 O. Nielsen
A. Romagnoli
Italy
13 A. Romagnoli
M. Lazzari
Italy
29 M. Lazzari
K. Taylor
Netherlands
24 K. Taylor
P. Gabarrón Gil
Spain
4 P. Gabarrón Gil
T. Bašić
Croatia
26 T. Bašić
M. Zaccagni
Italy
10 M. Zaccagni
B. Dia
Senegal
19 B. Dia
M. Cancellieri
Italy
22 M. Cancellieri

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 18, 2026, 04:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Serie A, Italy · Round 33 · Regular Season
Stadium
Stadio Diego Armando Maradona
Capacity
54726
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Dario Cecconi
Ermanno Feliciani
Luca Zufferli
Alessandro Lo Cicero

Lineup

Referee : Luca Zufferli

Starting XI ▼

32
Vanja Milinković-Savić
Vanja Milinković-Savić Goalkeeper
6.76
4
Alessandro Buongiorno
Alessandro Buongiorno Defender
6.78
5
Juan Jesus
Juan Jesus Defender
6.69
17
Mathías Olivera
Mathías Olivera Defender
6.69
21
Matteo Politano
Matteo Politano Defender
6.97
37
Leonardo Spinazzola
Leonardo Spinazzola Defender
6.79
8
Scott McTominay
Scott McTominay Midfielder
7.15
11
Kevin De Bruyne
Kevin De Bruyne Midfielder
7.22
68
Stanislav Lobotka
Stanislav Lobotka Midfielder
6.91
99
Frank Anguissa
Frank Anguissa Midfielder
7.05
19
Rasmus Højlund
Rasmus Højlund Attacker
6.85
Referee : Luca Zufferli

Starting XI ▼

40
Edoardo Motta
Edoardo Motta Goalkeeper
6.9
13
Alessio Romagnoli
Alessio Romagnoli Defender
6.89
17
Nuno Tavares
Nuno Tavares Defender
6.84
25
Oliver Provstgaard
Oliver Provstgaard Defender
6.81
29
Manuel Lazzari
Manuel Lazzari Defender
6.6
4
Patric
Patric Midfielder
6.74
24
Kenneth Taylor
Kenneth Taylor Midfielder
6.95
26
Toma Bašić
Toma Bašić Midfielder
6.98
10
Mattia Zaccagni
Mattia Zaccagni Attacker
7.01
19
Boulaye Dia
Boulaye Dia Attacker
6.63
22
Matteo Cancellieri
Matteo Cancellieri Attacker
6.85

CONCLUSION

Napoli enter this match as clear favorites, backed by their excellent recent form and strong league position. The home side's attacking prowess and solid structure should allow them to dominate proceedings against a Lazio team that has struggled for consistency on the road. However, the visitors possess enough quality to pose threats on the break, meaning Napoli must remain vigilant throughout. With the power advantage firmly in the hosts' favor, expect Napoli to control the tempo and create multiple scoring opportunities. Lazio will likely sit deeper and look for set piece chances or counter attacks. Overall, this fixture highlights Napoli's push for the title against Lazio's battle for a top half finish. A home victory appears the most probable outcome, but football often delivers surprises in such encounters.

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