Modena vs Cesena Prediction, Preview and Stats

Italy flag 2025/2026 Serie B, Italy
Stadio Alberto Braglia Sat, 7 Mar - 6:30 PM
Serie B
Modena MOD
0 – 0
Cesena CES
Full Time Sat, 7 Mar 6:30 PM

CONTEXT

Match is finished. Modena 0–0 Cesena. The match ended in a draw. Modena showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result diverged from the pre-match projection. Possession was 54%–46%.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Modena showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
D. Palermo
D. Palermo
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 11.17
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 1.65
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.26
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.13
C. Allegretta
C. Allegretta
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 11.17
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 1.65
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.26
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.13
Marco Colaianni
Marco Colaianni
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 11.17
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 1.65
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.26
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.13
M. Marcenaro
M. Marcenaro
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 11.17
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 1.65
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.26
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.13
Modena A. Sottil
A. Sottil
VS
Cesena M. Mignani
M. Mignani
1.56
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.36
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Calcio Padova Rank: L
Juve Stabia Rank: W
Carrarese Rank: W
Venezia Rank: W
Sampdoria Rank: L
Empoli Rank: D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Empoli Rank: D
Spezia Rank: L
Venezia Rank: L
Virtus Entella Rank: L
Pescara Rank: W
Avellino Rank: L
3
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
3 - 7 - 9
9

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Modena
50.73%
Draw
29.33%
Away Cesena
19.94%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks’ model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
50.57
44.83
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Modena
Cesena
Power Score
50.57
44.83
League Position
6
8
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Modena — Opponent-weighted form score
Cesena — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Modena Cesena

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Modena

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Cesena

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Modena ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Cesena
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
34.26
7.39
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
7.39
34.26
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Modena +2.62 Efficiency Index
vs
Cesena -2.62 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Modena
Cesena
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Modena ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Cesena
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Modena Cesena
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Modena Cesena
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Modena
Cesena
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 3 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Modena MOD Home
3 matches
Cesena CES Away
Match Record
0
Wins
2
1
Draws
1
2
Losses
0
Goals
2
Goals Scored
4
4
Goals Conceded
2
-2
Goal Difference
+2
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-03-08T00:13:38+00:00

TEAM FORMATION

No team formation data available.

General Information

Date & Time
Mar 07, 2026, 06:30 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Serie B, Italy
Stadium
Stadio Alberto Braglia
Capacity
21092
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Domenico Palermo
Claudio Giuseppe Allegretta
Marco Colaianni
Matteo Marcenaro

Statistics

Possession
MOD
55%
CES
45%

Top Statistics

1 Big Chances Created 0
8 Shots 1
30 Dangerous attacks 8
54 Possession 46
7 Corners 1
10 Free kicks 8
1 Yellow Cards 0

Match Overview

14 Dribble Attempts 8
4 Goal Kicks 14
57 Successful Dribbles Percentage 13
8 Successful Dribbles 1
19 Throwins 10
2 Substitutions 3
1 Hit Woodwork 0
61 Ball Safe 78
13 Goal Attempts 2

Attacking

125 Attacks 73
1 Big Chances Missed 0

Possession

17 Successful Long Passes 25
465 Successful Passes 398
535 Passes 464
49 Successful Long Passes Percentage 45
87 Successful Passes Percentage 86
35 Long Passes 55
12 Key Passes 2

Defensive

17 Tackles 11
1 Saves 4
5 Interceptions 11

Build-up

8 Accurate Crosses 0
31 Total Crosses 6

Discipline

8 Fouls 10
0 Offsides 2

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Francesco Zampano
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
89'
75'
Event
Dimitri Bisoli → Tommaso Berti
4th Substitution
75'
Event
Giacomo Vrioni → Alberto Cerri
5th Substitution
Event
Ettore Gliozzi → Manuel De Luca
1st Substitution
65'
Event
Pedro Mendes → Giuseppe Ambrosino
3rd Substitution
65'
65'
Event
Matteo Guidi → Riccardo Ciervo
2nd Substitution

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Modena exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

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