Metalist 1925 Kharkiv vs SK Poltava Prediction, Preview and Stats

Ukraine flag 2025/2026 Premier League, Ukraine
Tsentralnyi Stadion Thu, 19 Mar - 4:00 PM
Premier League
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
2 Winner 0
SK Poltava SK Poltava
Full Time Thu, 19 Mar 4:00 PM
Peter Mandela Itodo - 45+2'
Cauan Matteo Baptistella - 53'
Goal
|

CONTEXT

Match is finished. Metalist 1925 Kharkiv 2–0 SK Poltava. The result saw Metalist 1925 Kharkiv take the points. Metalist 1925 Kharkiv showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result aligned with the pre-match projection. Possession was 72%–28%.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Metalist 1925 Kharkiv showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
  • Market: Metalist 1925 Kharkiv 78.3% | Draw 14.9% | SK Poltava 6.8%.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
No referee statistics available.
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv M. Bartulović
M. Bartulović
VS
SK Poltava P. Matviychenko
P. Matviychenko
1.6
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0.33
1.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Shakhtar Donetsk Rank: 73 L
Rukh Vynnyky Rank: 48 W
Oleksandria Rank: 49 W
Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih Rank: 55 D
Obolon'-Brovar Rank: 43 W
Veres Rank: 46 D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0 i
Last 6 Opponents
Karpaty Rank: 48 L
Zorya Luhansk Rank: 50 L
Kudrivka Rank: 42 L
Veres Rank: 46 L
Rukh Vynnyky Rank: 45 L
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi Rank: 46 L
1
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
1 - 0 - 0
0

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
78.27%
Draw
14.89%
Away SK Poltava
6.84%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
46.96
35.22
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
SK Poltava
Power Score
46.96
35.22
League Position
5
16
Global Rank
753
1134

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv — Opponent-weighted form score
SK Poltava — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Metalist 1925 Kharkiv SK Poltava

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

SK Poltava

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy SK Poltava
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
23.75
18.04
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
18.04
23.75
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv +0.55 Efficiency Index
vs
SK Poltava -0.55 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
SK Poltava
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy SK Poltava
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv SK Poltava
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv SK Poltava
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
SK Poltava
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 1 match between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv Metalist 1925 Kharkiv Home
1 matches
SK Poltava SK Poltava Away
Match Record
1
Wins
0
0
Draws
0
0
Losses
1
Goals
2
Goals Scored
0
0
Goals Conceded
2
+2
Goal Difference
-2
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-03-20T00:03:54+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-3-3
Match Formation 4-4-2
Pitch
D. Varakuta
Ukraine
30 D. Varakuta
I. Krupskyi
Ukraine
27 I. Krupskyi
Y. Pavliuk
Ukraine
18 Y. Pavliuk
V. Dubko
Ukraine
37 V. Dubko
O. Martynyuk
Ukraine
24 O. Martynyuk
C. Baptistella
Substitution
77 C. Baptistella
I. Kaliuzhnyi
Ukraine
5 I. Kaliuzhnyi
I. Lytvynenko
Substitution
Ukraine
25 I. Lytvynenko
A. Moura Vieira Filho
Substitution
Brazil
7 A. Moura Vieira Filho
P. Itodo
Substitution
Nigeria
98 P. Itodo
E. Rashica
Substitution
Albania
19 E. Rashica
M. Minchev
Ukraine
1 M. Minchev
A. Savenkov
Ukraine
12 A. Savenkov
E. Misyura
Ukraine
20 E. Misyura
V. Pidlepych
Ukraine
5 V. Pidlepych
I. Ukhan
Ukraine
24 I. Ukhan
M. Kononov
Ukraine
2 M. Kononov
A. Doroshenko
Ukraine
21 A. Doroshenko
V. Danilenko
Ukraine
15 V. Danilenko
V. Odariuk
Substitution
Ukraine
8 V. Odariuk
O. Vivdych
Substitution
Ukraine
88 O. Vivdych
D. Sukhoruchko
Ukraine
38 D. Sukhoruchko

General Information

Date & Time
Mar 19, 2026, 04:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Premier League, Ukraine
Stadium
Tsentralnyi Stadion
Capacity
5928
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ , Clear
Referees
Sergiy Zadyran

Statistics

Possession
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
64%
SK Poltava
36%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 0
8 Shots 2
42 Dangerous attacks 21
72 Possession 28
8 Corners 5
8 Free kicks 9
0 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

6 Goal Kicks 13
2 Assists 0
5 Substitutions 2

Attacking

74 Attacks 48

Defensive

2 Saves 6

Discipline

9 Fouls 8
1 Offsides 0

Lineup

Referee : Sergiy Zadyran

Starting XI ▼

30
Danylo Varakuta
Danylo Varakuta Goalkeeper
18
Yevgen Pavlyuk
Yevgen Pavlyuk Defender
24
Oleksandr Martynyuk
Oleksandr Martynyuk Defender
27
Ilya Krupskyi
Ilya Krupskyi Defender
37
Valeriy Dubko
Valeriy Dubko Defender
5
Ivan Kalyuzhnyi
Ivan Kalyuzhnyi Midfielder
7
Ari Moura
Ari Moura Midfielder
45
Vladyslav Kalitvintsev
Vladyslav Kalitvintsev
Midfielder72'
19
Ermir Rashica
Ermir Rashica Midfielder
8
Sebastian Castillo
Sebastian Castillo
Attacker62'
25
Ivan Lytvynenko
Ivan Lytvynenko Midfielder
26
Baton Zabergja
Baton Zabergja
Midfielder81'
77
Cauan Matteo Baptistella
Cauan Matteo Baptistella Midfielder
17
Igor Kogut
Igor Kogut
Midfielder72'
98
Peter Mandela Itodo
Peter Mandela Itodo Attacker
99
Christian Mba
Christian Mba
Attacker62'
Referee : Sergiy Zadyran

Starting XI ▼

1
Mykyta Minchev
Mykyta Minchev Goalkeeper
2
Mykyta Kononov
Mykyta Kononov Defender
5
Vadim Pidlepych
Vadim Pidlepych Defender
12
Andriy Savenkov
Andriy Savenkov Defender
20
Yevgen Misyura
Yevgen Misyura Defender
24
Ilya Ukhan
Ilya Ukhan Defender
8
Volodymyr Odaryuk
Volodymyr Odaryuk Midfielder
7
Denys Galenkov
Denys Galenkov
Midfielder65'
15
Vladyslav Danylenko
Vladyslav Danylenko Midfielder
21
A. Doroshenko
A. Doroshenko Midfielder
38
Danyil Sukhoruchko
Danyil Sukhoruchko Attacker
88
Oleksandr Vivdych
Oleksandr Vivdych Attacker
93
Bogdan Kobzar
Bogdan Kobzar
Attacker65'

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Baton Zabergja → Ivan Lytvynenko
7th Substitution
81'
Event
Vladyslav Kalitvintsev → Ari Moura
5th Substitution
72'
Event
Igor Kogut → Cauan Matteo Baptistella
6th Substitution
72'
65'
Event
Denys Galenkov → Volodymyr Odaryuk
3rd Substitution
65'
Event
Bogdan Kobzar → Oleksandr Vivdych
4th Substitution
Event
Sebastian Castillo → Ermir Rashica
1st Substitution
62'
Event
Christian Mba → Peter Mandela Itodo
2nd Substitution
62'
Event
Cauan Matteo Baptistella
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
53'
1ST-HALF
Event
Peter Mandela Itodo
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
45+2'
11'
Event
Vadim Mashchenko
2nd Yellowcard
11'
Event
Danyil Sukhoruchko
1st Yellowcard

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Metalist 1925 Kharkiv exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

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