Málaga vs Leganés Prediction, Preview and Stats

Spain flag 2025/2026 La Liga 2, Spain
Estadio La Rosaleda Sat, 28 Mar - 5:30 PM
La Liga 2
Málaga MLA
0 – 0
Leganés LEG
Full Time Sat, 28 Mar 5:30 PM
Round 32 Regular Season

CONTEXT

Match is finished. Málaga 0–0 Leganés. The match ended in a draw. Málaga showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result diverged from the pre-match projection. Possession was 54%–46%.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Málaga showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
No referee statistics available.
Málaga J. Funes Arjona
J. Funes Arjona
VS
Leganés I. Oca Pulido
I. Oca Pulido
1.74
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.17
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Real Valladolid Rank: 59 D
Granada Rank: 67 W
Albacete Rank: 66 W
Real Sociedad II Rank: 62 L
Cultural Leonesa Rank: 58 W
Mirandés Rank: 58 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
SD Eibar Rank: 66 L
Sporting Gijón Rank: 65 D
Cultural Leonesa Rank: 58 D
Córdoba Rank: 61 L
Granada Rank: 67 W
Burgos Rank: 67 L
3
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
3 - 1 - 7
7

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Málaga
52.08%
Draw
26.69%
Away Leganés
21.22%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
68.15
60.4
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Málaga
Leganés
Power Score
68.15
60.4
League Position
4
17
Global Rank
219
286

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Málaga — Opponent-weighted form score
Leganés — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Málaga Leganés

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Málaga

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Leganés

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Málaga ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Leganés
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
42.41
26.41
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
26.41
42.41
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Málaga +1.61 Efficiency Index
vs
Leganés -1.61 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Málaga
Leganés
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Málaga ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Leganés
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Málaga Leganés
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Málaga Leganés
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Málaga
Leganés
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 11 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Málaga MLA Home
11 matches
Leganés LEG Away
Match Record
3
Wins
7
1
Draws
1
7
Losses
3
Goals
10
Goals Scored
12
12
Goals Conceded
10
-2
Goal Difference
+2
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-03-29T00:00:37+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-4-2
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
A. Herrero Peinador
Spain
1 A. Herrero Peinador
C. Puga Medina
Spain
3 C. Puga Medina
D. Murillo Dominguez
Spain
16 D. Murillo Dominguez
F. Montero Rubio
Spain
20 F. Montero Rubio
D. Rodríguez Sánchez
Substitution
Spain
18 D. Rodríguez Sánchez
D. Larrubia Romano
Spain
10 D. Larrubia Romano
I. Merino Rodríguez
Spain
23 I. Merino Rodríguez
D. Lorenzo Guerrero
Spain
22 D. Lorenzo Guerrero
J. Muñoz Benavides
Substitution
Spain
11 J. Muñoz Benavides
R. Rodríguez Ruiz
Substitution
Spain
37 R. Rodríguez Ruiz
C. Ruiz Rubio
Spain
9 C. Ruiz Rubio
J. Soriano Oropesa
Spain
1 J. Soriano Oropesa
E. Franquesa Dolz
Spain
15 E. Franquesa Dolz
M. Antolín Garzón
Spain
2 M. Antolín Garzón
I. Miquel i Pons
Spain
5 I. Miquel i Pons
M. Leiva Calvo
36 M. Leiva Calvo
A. Diawara
Guinea
24 A. Diawara
C. Guirao Mora
Substitution
Spain
26 C. Guirao Mora
J. Díaz Espósito
Substitution
Spain
10 J. Díaz Espósito
D. Rodríguez Vázquez
Substitution
Spain
9 D. Rodríguez Vázquez
L. Lopes
Cape Verde
11 L. Lopes
A. Millán Iranzo
Substitution
Spain
23 A. Millán Iranzo

General Information

Date & Time
Mar 28, 2026, 05:30 PM
Competition
2025/2026 La Liga 2, Spain · Round 32 · Regular Season
Stadium
Estadio La Rosaleda
Capacity
30044
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ , Clear
Referees
José Miguel Bordoy Homar
D. Clemente Manrique
Sergiu Claudiu Muresan
Aitor Moleon Cuenca

Statistics

Possession
MLA
53%
LEG
47%

Top Statistics

1 Big Chances Created 3
3 Shots 2
58 Dangerous attacks 43
54 Possession 46
9 Corners 5
14 Free kicks 10
0 Yellow Cards 3

Match Overview

30 Dribble Attempts 30
10 Successful Dribbles 11
5 Goal Kicks 14
1 Hit Woodwork 0
7 Goal Attempts 4
14 Throwins 21
33 Successful Dribbles Percentage 37
40 Ball Safe 45
3 Substitutions 4

Attacking

1 Big Chances Missed 3
123 Attacks 76

Possession

29 Successful Long Passes 22
353 Successful Passes 310
47 Long Passes 53
86 Successful Passes Percentage 84
13 Key Passes 8
411 Passes 367
62 Successful Long Passes Percentage 42

Defensive

24 Tackles 32
3 Interceptions 6
3 Saves 6

Build-up

7 Accurate Crosses 2
24 Total Crosses 15

Discipline

1 Offsides 2
7 Fouls 12

Lineup

Referee : Sergiu Claudiu Muresan

Starting XI ▼

1
Alfonso Herrero
Alfonso Herrero Goalkeeper
3
Carlos Puga
Carlos Puga Defender
16
Diego Murillo
Diego Murillo Defender
18
Dani Sánchez
Dani Sánchez Defender
25
Josué Dorrio
Josué Dorrio
Attacker71'
20
Javi Montero
Javi Montero Defender
10
David Larrubia
David Larrubia Midfielder
11
Joaquín Muñoz
Joaquín Muñoz Midfielder
17
Eneko Jauregi
Eneko Jauregi
Attacker79'
22
Dani Lorenzo
Dani Lorenzo Midfielder
23
Izan Merino
Izan Merino Midfielder
9
Chupe
Chupe Attacker
37
Rafa Rodríguez
Rafa Rodríguez Attacker
14
Víctor García
Víctor García
Defender71'
Referee : Sergiu Claudiu Muresan

Starting XI ▼

1
Juan Soriano
Juan Soriano Goalkeeper
2
Marvelous Antolín Garzón
Marvelous Antolín Garzón Defender
5
Ignasi Miquel
Ignasi Miquel Defender
15
Enric Franquesa
Enric Franquesa Defender
36
Marcos Leiva Calvo
Marcos Leiva Calvo Defender
9
Dani Rodríguez
Dani Rodríguez Midfielder
20
Óscar Plano
Óscar Plano
Attacker89'
10
Juan Cruz
Juan Cruz Midfielder
17
Naim García
Naim García
Attacker78'
11
Duk
Duk Midfielder
24
Amadou Diawara
Amadou Diawara Midfielder
26
Carlos Guirao
Carlos Guirao Midfielder
16
Gonzalo Melero
Gonzalo Melero
Midfielder62'
23
Álex Millán
Álex Millán Attacker
12
Luis Asué
Luis Asué
Attacker63'

Events

2ND-HALF
90+2'
Event
Gonzalo Melero
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
89'
Event
Óscar Plano → Dani Rodríguez
7th Substitution
Event
Eneko Jauregi → Joaquín Muñoz
6th Substitution
79'
78'
Event
Naim García → Juan Cruz
5th Substitution
Event
Víctor García → Rafa Rodríguez
4th Substitution
71'
Event
Josué Dorrio → Dani Sánchez
3rd Substitution
71'
63'
Event
Luis Asué → Álex Millán
2nd Substitution
62'
Event
Gonzalo Melero → Carlos Guirao
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
37'
Event
Carlos Guirao
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
18'
Event
Juan Soriano
Foul / 1st Yellowcard

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Málaga exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

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