Luzern vs Young Boys Prediction, Preview and Stats
2025/2026 Super League, Switzerland
Sportplatz Chrüzmatt
Fri, 6 Mar - 2:09 PM
Super League
Luzern
LUZ
1
2
2
Young Boys
YBO
Full Time
Fri, 6 Mar
2:09 PM
Sinan Karweina - 86' (P)
|
Edimilson Fernandes - 56' (Own Goal)
Darian Males - 79'
Lucas Manuel Silva Ferreira 42'
|
STANDINGS
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| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
Promotion
Promotion Playoffs
Relegation
Data last checked: Apr 16
CONTEXT
The match between Luzern and Young Boys has finished, with Young Boys securing a 2-1 away victory. Following a tightly contested first half that ended scoreless, the match opened up in the second period. Luzern managed to hold the slight majority of the ball with 53% possession compared to Young Boys' 47%, but the visitors ultimately claimed the win. Before kickoff, Luzern entered the match as the pre-market favorites with a 43.3% implied probability of winning, while Young Boys sat at 32.1% and the draw at 24.6%. Consequently, the away victory represented a significant deviation of 67.9% in favor of Young Boys. The final outcome did not align with the pre-match market expectations, proving the visitors were underestimated. The dynamic of the game was heavily influenced by a red card issued to Luzern, creating a second-half distortion that aided the visitors. Expected goals (xG) data was not available for this fixture to determine if the outcome aligned with the underlying quality of chances. However, the overall efficiency shift was strictly in line with the final result, as Young Boys successfully capitalized on their numerical advantage to take all three points.
TL;DR
-
Structural deviation: Young Boys showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
-
Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
-
xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
-
Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
-
xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
-
Event impact: Red card(s) affected the match (Classify).
-
Red card distortion: Classify as red card distortion.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)
Quality vs Volume
Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11
Open Play vs Set Play
Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%
Expected Points
| Team | xPts |
|---|---|
| Home | 1.8 |
| Away | 1.2 |
ℹ️
Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
L. Hartmann
1st Assistant
•
25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee
0.52
League Avg
8.71
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee
0.12
League Avg
1.79
Red Cards / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0.14
Penalties / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0.29
D. Huwiler
2nd Assistant
•
25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee
0.52
League Avg
8.71
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee
0.12
League Avg
1.79
Red Cards / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0.14
Penalties / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0.29
L. Fähndrich
Referee
•
25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee
0.52
League Avg
8.71
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee
0.12
League Avg
1.79
Red Cards / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0.14
Penalties / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0.29
D. Grundbacher
4th Official
•
25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee
0.52
League Avg
8.71
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee
0.12
League Avg
1.79
Red Cards / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0.14
Penalties / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0.29
M. Frick
VS
G. Seoane
1.09
Avg Points / Game
(Last 100 Matches)
1.41
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Young Boys
Rank:
L
Thun
Rank:
L
Basel
Rank:
W
Zürich
Rank:
W
Grasshopper
Rank:
W
Sion
Rank:
D
Avg Points / Game
(Last 6 Matches)
1 i
Last 6 Opponents
Zürich
Rank:
W
Thun
Rank:
L
Lausanne Sport
Rank:
L
Lugano
Rank:
L
Grasshopper
Rank:
L
Luzern
Rank:
W
12
Head to Head
(Wins - Draws - Losses)
12 - 19 - 46
46
Win Probabilities
Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Luzern
43.27%
Draw
24.63%
Young Boys
32.1%
Team Power Ranking
iWhat is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks’ model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
39.29
50
0 (Weakest)
100 (Strongest)
Metric
Luzern
Young Boys
Power Score
39.29
50
League Position
7
5
Global Rank
-
-
Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted
Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.
–
vs
Luzern
—
Opponent-weighted form score
Young Boys
—
Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts)
Draw (1 pt)
Loss (0 pts)
Luzern Young Boys
Heatmaps Ball coordinates
Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.
–
vs
Loading…
Luzern
Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —
Own half density —
vs season average —
Young Boys
Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —
Own half density —
vs season average —
Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted
How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage
Luzern
⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy
Young Boys
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
25.09
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
48.19
Combined Efficiency Index
Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3
0
3
Luzern
-2.18
Efficiency Index
vs
Young Boys
+2.18
Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Luzern
Young Boys
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)
Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence
Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.
Luzern
vs
Young Boys
Created
Set-piece attacking threat
Luzern
Young Boys
Set-piece xG Share
Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
0%
Goals per Match
Average set-piece goals scored per match.
1.00
0.00
vs Expected (xG)
Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
+1.00
vs
+0.00
Conceded
Set-piece defensive exposure
Luzern
Young Boys
Set-piece xGA Share
Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
Conceded per Match
Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00
1.00
vs Expected (xGA)
Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
—
vs
—
Luzern
Young Boys
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.
Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons
Summary of 22 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.
Luzern
LUZ
Home
22
matches
Young Boys
YBO
Away
Match Record
1
Wins
14
7
Draws
7
14
Losses
1
Goals
32
Goals Scored
54
54
Goals Conceded
32
-22
Goal Difference
+22
Expected Goals
1.63
xG
1.82
1.82
xGA
1.63
Data last updated: 2026-03-07T11:22:44+00:00
TEAM FORMATION
No team formation data available.
General Information
Date & Time
Mar 06, 2026, 02:09 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Super League, Switzerland
Stadium
Sportplatz Chrüzmatt
Capacity
1800
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Leroy Hartmann
David Huwiler
Lukas Fähndrich
Désirée Grundbacher
Statistics
Possession
LUZ
52%
YBO
48%
Top Statistics
1
Goals
2
1
Big Chances Created
2
3
Shots
7
66
Dangerous attacks
53
53
Possession
47
6
Corners
9
5
Free kicks
10
2
Yellow Cards
2
1
Red Cards
0
Match Overview
12
Dribble Attempts
24
10
Successful Dribbles
10
83
Successful Dribbles Percentage
42
16
Throwins
18
12
Goal Kicks
10
59
Ball Safe
71
5
Goal Attempts
12
5
Substitutions
5
0
Assists
1
1
Penalties
0
0
Injuries
1
Attacking
94
Attacks
96
0
Big Chances Missed
2
Possession
444
Passes
395
349
Successful Passes
324
79
Successful Passes Percentage
82
62
Long Passes
42
52
Successful Long Passes Percentage
48
32
Successful Long Passes
20
7
Key Passes
14
Defensive
24
Tackles
16
4
Interceptions
14
1
Saves
1
Build-up
21
Total Crosses
17
5
Accurate Crosses
7
Discipline
11
Fouls
5
1
Offsides
1
Events
2ND-HALF
90+6'
Tanguy Zoukrou → Joël Monteiro
10th Substitution
90+2'
Christian Fassnacht
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
89'
Marvin Keller
Time wasting / 2nd Yellowcard
Sinan Karweina
Right foot shot / 1st Penalty
86'
Andrejs Ciganiks
Penalty awarded
85'
Sinan Karweina → Matteo Di Giusto
9th Substitution
80'
79'
Darian Males
Left foot shot / 1st Goal
78'
Darian Males → Alvyn Sanches
7th Substitution
78'
Christian Fassnacht → Samuel Essende
6th Substitution
78'
Dominik Pech → Armin Gigovic
8th Substitution
Andrejs Ciganiks → Rúben Dantas Fernandes
3rd Substitution
74'
Lars Villiger → Oscar Kabwit
4th Substitution
74'
Levin Winkler → Taisei Abe
5th Substitution
74'
Severin Ottiger → Julian Von Moos
2nd Substitution
60'
56'
Edimilson Fernandes
Right foot shot / 1st Own Goal
56'
Chris Bedia → Stefan Bukinac
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
Lucas Manuel Silva Ferreira
Foul / 1st Yellow/red Card
42'
Lucas Manuel Silva Ferreira
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
25'
CONCLUSION
Structural assessment: Young Boys exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Structural distortion: The match was materially influenced by red card(s), altering baseline dynamics. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.