Lugano vs Luzern Prediction, Preview and Stats

Switzerland flag 2025/2026 Super League, Switzerland
Stadio di Cornaredo Sat, 7 Mar - 7:30 PM
Super League
Lugano Lugano
1 Winner 3
Luzern LUZ
Full Time Sat, 7 Mar 7:30 PM
Hannes Delcroix - 50'
Goal
|
Goal
Andrej Vasovic - 44'
Oscar Kabwit - 63'
Matteo Di Giusto - 90+4'

CONTEXT

Match is finished. Lugano 1–3 Luzern. The result saw Luzern take the points. Luzern showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result diverged from the pre-match projection. Possession was 64%–36%.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Luzern showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
M. Bürgi
M. Bürgi
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 14.36
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.86
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.21
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.36
M. Drmic
M. Drmic
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 14.36
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.86
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.21
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.36
B. Lengacher
B. Lengacher
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 14.36
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.86
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.21
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.36
A. Kanagasingam
A. Kanagasingam
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 14.36
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.86
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.21
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.36
Lugano M. Croci-Torti
M. Croci-Torti
VS
Luzern M. Frick
M. Frick
1.92
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.09
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Sion Rank: W
Grasshopper Rank: L
Lausanne Sport Rank: W
Basel Rank: D
Servette Rank: D
Winterthur Rank: D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Young Boys Rank: L
Thun Rank: L
Basel Rank: W
Zürich Rank: W
Grasshopper Rank: W
Sion Rank: D
18
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
18 - 8 - 15
15

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Lugano
43.65%
Draw
26.07%
Away Luzern
30.28%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks’ model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
56.32
41.38
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Lugano
Luzern
Power Score
56.32
41.38
League Position
3
7
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Lugano — Opponent-weighted form score
Luzern — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Lugano Luzern

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Lugano

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Luzern

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Lugano ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Luzern
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
20.39
49.03
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
49.03
20.39
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Lugano -2.70 Efficiency Index
vs
Luzern +2.70 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Lugano
Luzern
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Lugano ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Luzern
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Lugano Luzern
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Lugano Luzern
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Lugano
Luzern
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 21 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Lugano Lugano Home
21 matches
Luzern LUZ Away
Match Record
12
Wins
5
4
Draws
4
5
Losses
12
Goals
43
Goals Scored
29
29
Goals Conceded
43
+14
Goal Difference
-14
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-03-08T00:14:20+00:00

TEAM FORMATION

No team formation data available.

General Information

Date & Time
Mar 07, 2026, 07:30 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Super League, Switzerland
Stadium
Stadio di Cornaredo
Capacity
6390
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Mirco Bürgi
Marijan Drmic
Bastien Lengacher
Anojen Kanagasingam

Statistics

Possession
Lugano
59%
LUZ
41%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 3
1 Big Chances Created 3
5 Shots 5
41 Dangerous attacks 33
64 Possession 36
4 Corners 3
14 Free kicks 9
1 Yellow Cards 3

Match Overview

5 Substitutions 4
1 Assists 2
13 Goal Kicks 9
23 Throwins 15
11 Dribble Attempts 8
36 Successful Dribbles Percentage 75
4 Successful Dribbles 6
6 Goal Attempts 5
65 Ball Safe 51
0 Hit Woodwork 1

Attacking

95 Attacks 85
0 Big Chances Missed 3

Possession

37 Successful Long Passes 30
9 Key Passes 10
85 Successful Passes Percentage 75
56 Successful Long Passes Percentage 49
468 Successful Passes 235
552 Passes 313
66 Long Passes 61

Defensive

16 Tackles 10
7 Interceptions 13
1 Saves 3

Build-up

19 Total Crosses 9
5 Accurate Crosses 4

Discipline

8 Fouls 14
2 Offsides 0

Events

2ND-HALF
90+4'
Event
Matteo Di Giusto
Right foot shot / 4th Goal
Event
Elias Pihlström
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
90+3'
Event
Ahmed Kendouci → Anto Grgic
9th Substitution
90'
88'
Event
Adrian Bajrami
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
85'
Event
Lars Villiger
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
84'
Event
Severin Ottiger → Oscar Kabwit
8th Substitution
Event
Elias Pihlström → Uran Bislimi
6th Substitution
78'
Event
Martim Marques → Hannes Delcroix
5th Substitution
78'
78'
Event
Lars Villiger → Adrian Grbic
7th Substitution
77'
Event
Stefan Knezevic → Bung Meng Freimann
4th Substitution
68'
Event
Levin Winkler → Tyron Owusu
3rd Substitution
66'
Event
Bung Meng Freimann
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
63'
Event
Oscar Kabwit
Left foot shot / 3rd Goal
Event
Mohamed Belhadj Mahmoud → Yanis Cimignani
2nd Substitution
61'
Event
Hannes Delcroix
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
50'
Event
Hicham Mahou → Kevin Behrens
1st Substitution
46'
1ST-HALF
44'
Event
Andrej Vasovic
Header / 1st Goal
Event
Var
41'

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Luzern exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

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