Lorient vs Lens Prediction, Preview and Stats

France flag 2025/2026 Ligue 1, France
Stade Yves Allainmat - Le Moustoir Sat, 14 Mar - 4:00 PM
Ligue 1
Lorient LOR
2 Winner 1
Lens LEN
Full Time Sat, 14 Mar 4:00 PM
Bamba Dieng - 18'
Aiyegun Tosin - 65'
Goal
|
Goal
Odsonne Édouard - 48'

CONTEXT

Match is finished. Lorient 2–1 Lens. The result saw Lorient take the points. Lorient showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result diverged from the pre-match projection. Possession was 34%–66%.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Lorient showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
T. Léonard
T. Léonard
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 14
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.27
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.09
V. Evrard
V. Evrard
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 14
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.27
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.09
A. Taleb
A. Taleb
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 14
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.27
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.09
M. Berchebru
M. Berchebru
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 14
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.27
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.09
Lorient O. Pantaloni
O. Pantaloni
VS
Lens P. Sage
P. Sage
1.48
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
2.27
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
LOSC Lille Rank: 77 D
Auxerre Rank: 67 D
Nice Rank: 72 D
Angers SCO Rank: 69 W
Brest Rank: 74 L
Nantes Rank: 65 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Metz Rank: 62 W
Strasbourg Rank: 80 D
Monaco Rank: 77 L
Paris Rank: 67 W
Rennes Rank: 77 W
Le Havre Rank: 69 W
7
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
7 - 6 - 6
6

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Lorient
21.18%
Draw
25.48%
Away Lens
53.34%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
61.48
81.62
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Lorient
Lens
Power Score
61.48
81.62
League Position
9
2
Global Rank
117
48

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Lorient — Opponent-weighted form score
Lens — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Lorient Lens

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Lorient

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Lens

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Lorient ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Lens
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
21.47
37.88
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
37.88
21.47
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Lorient -1.90 Efficiency Index
vs
Lens +1.90 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Lorient
Lens
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Lorient
vs
Lens
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Lorient Lens
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
0%
0%
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
+0.00 vs +0.00
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Lorient Lens
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
Lorient
Lens
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 9 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Lorient LOR Home
9 matches
Lens LEN Away
Match Record
1
Wins
6
2
Draws
2
6
Losses
1
Goals
10
Goals Scored
22
22
Goals Conceded
10
-12
Goal Difference
+12
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-03-16T01:16:54+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Pitch
Y. Mvogo
Switzerland
38 Y. Mvogo
A. Meité
France
5 A. Meité
M. Talbi
Tunisia
3 (C) M. Talbi
A. Faye
Senegal
25 A. Faye
T. Le Bris
Substitution
France
11 T. Le Bris
N. Cadiou
France
8 N. Cadiou
A. Ebong Avon
Cameroon
62 A. Ebong Avon
K. Kouassi
Burkina Faso
43 K. Kouassi
J. Makengo
Substitution
France
17 J. Makengo
K. Dermane
Substitution
Togo
29 K. Dermane
Bamba Dieng
Substitution
Senegal
12 Bamba Dieng
R. Risser
France
40 R. Risser
M. Sarr
France
20 M. Sarr
P. Ganiou
France
25 P. Ganiou
N. Čelik
Substitution
Bosnia and Herzegovina
4 N. Čelik
M. Udol
France
14 M. Udol
A. Thomasson
Substitution
France
28 (C) A. Thomasson
M. Sangare
Mali
8 M. Sangare
S. Abdul Hamid
Substitution
Saudi Arabia
23 S. Abdul Hamid
A. Sima
Substitution
Senegal
19 A. Sima
F. Thauvin
France
10 F. Thauvin
O. Édouard
Substitution
France
11 O. Édouard

General Information

Date & Time
Mar 14, 2026, 04:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Ligue 1, France
Stadium
Stade Yves Allainmat - Le Moustoir
Capacity
18110
Pitch Surface
Artificial turf
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Thomas Léonard
Valentin Evrard
Ahmed Taleb
Mikael Berchebru

Statistics

Possession
LOR
36%
LEN
64%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 1
3 Big Chances Created 0
1 Shots 10
26 Dangerous attacks 100
34 Possession 66
1 Corners 10
11 Free kicks 6
2 Yellow Cards 3

Match Overview

15 Successful Headers 16
5 Goal Attempts 14
12 Goal Kicks 2
57 Successful Dribbles Percentage 35
65 Ball Safe 62
11 Throwins 23
14 Dribble Attempts 17
8 Successful Dribbles 6
1 Injuries 0
1 Assists 1
4 Substitutions 5

Attacking

60 Attacks 145
1 Big Chances Missed 0

Possession

50 Long Passes 39
5 Key Passes 17
77 Successful Passes Percentage 91
339 Passes 621
260 Successful Passes 568
40 Successful Long Passes Percentage 74
20 Successful Long Passes 29

Defensive

18 Tackles 13
5 Saves 1
5 Interceptions 10

Build-up

5 Total Crosses 59
1 Accurate Crosses 15

Discipline

1 Offsides 0
6 Fouls 11

Lineup

Referee : Thomas Léonard

Starting XI ▼

38
Yvon Mvogo
Yvon Mvogo Goalkeeper
7.37
3
Montassar Talbi
Montassar Talbi (C) Defender
7.33
5
Bamo Meïté
Bamo Meïté Defender
6.6
25
Abdoulaye Faye
Abdoulaye Faye Defender
6.7
8
Noah Doriann Cadiou
Noah Doriann Cadiou Midfielder
6.59
11
Théo Le Bris
Théo Le Bris Midfielder
6.84
32
Nathaniel Adjei
Nathaniel Adjei
Defender90+6'
43
Arsène Kouassi
Arsène Kouassi Midfielder
7.23
62
Arthur Avom
Arthur Avom Midfielder
6.84
12
Bamba Dieng
Bamba Dieng Attacker
6.74
15
Aiyegun Tosin
Aiyegun Tosin
Attacker64'
7.24
17
Jean-Victor Makengo
Jean-Victor Makengo Attacker
6.98
77
Panos Katseris
Panos Katseris
Defender81'
6.6
29
Karim Dermane
Karim Dermane Attacker
6.75
28
Sambou Soumano
Sambou Soumano
Attacker82'
6.44
Referee : Thomas Léonard

Starting XI ▼

40
Robin Risser
Robin Risser Goalkeeper
6.02
4
Nidal Celik
Nidal Celik Defender
6.46
21
Amadou Haidara
Amadou Haidara
Midfielder68'
6.84
20
Malang Sarr
Malang Sarr Defender
7.65
25
Ismaëlo Ganiou
Ismaëlo Ganiou Defender
6.72
8
Mamadou Sangaré
Mamadou Sangaré Midfielder
7.65
14
Matthieu Udol
Matthieu Udol Midfielder
7.29
23
Saud Abdulhamid
Saud Abdulhamid Midfielder
6.4
34
Erawan Garnier
Erawan Garnier
Attacker84'
6.81
28
Adrien Thomasson
Adrien Thomasson (C) Midfielder
6.92
5
Andrija Bulatovic
Andrija Bulatovic
Midfielder73'
6.64
10
Florian Thauvin
Florian Thauvin Attacker
7.98
11
Odsonne Édouard
Odsonne Édouard Attacker
7.11
38
Rayan Fofana
Rayan Fofana
Attacker84'
6.59
19
Abdallah Sima
Abdallah Sima Attacker
6.68
26
Anthony Bermont
Anthony Bermont
Midfielder73'
6.8

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Nathaniel Adjei → Théo Le Bris
9th Substitution
90+6'
84'
Event
Rayan Fofana → Odsonne Édouard
7th Substitution
84'
Event
Erawan Garnier → Saud Abdulhamid
8th Substitution
Event
Sambou Soumano → Karim Dermane
6th Substitution
82'
Event
Panos Katseris → Jean-Victor Makengo
5th Substitution
81'
75'
Event
Saud Abdulhamid
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
73'
Event
Andrija Bulatovic → Adrien Thomasson
4th Substitution
73'
Event
Anthony Bermont → Abdallah Sima
3rd Substitution
71'
Event
Ismaëlo Ganiou
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
68'
Event
Amadou Haidara → Nidal Celik
2nd Substitution
Event
Aiyegun Tosin
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
65'
Event
Aiyegun Tosin → Bamba Dieng
1st Substitution
64'
Event
Montassar Talbi
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
54'
48'
Event
Odsonne Édouard
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
1ST-HALF
Event
Abdoulaye Faye
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
26'
23'
Event
Nidal Celik
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
Event
Bamba Dieng
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
18'

Match Commentary

90
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Lens after Abdoulaye Faye allowed it to go out.
90
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Lens after a deflection off Montassar Talbi.
90
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity wasted. Rayan Fofana from Lens took a right-footed shot from the middle of the penalty area.
90
Update Update
Opportunity wasted. Anthony Bermont from Lens attempted a header from the center of the penalty area.
90
Update Update
Montassar Talbi of Lorient has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
90
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Lorient: Nathaniel Adjei comes on to replace Théo Le Bris.
90
Corner Corner
Opportunity wasted! Matthieu Udol from Lens attempted a header from the center of the penalty area but failed to find the target. The cross was provided by Florian Thauvin following a corner kick.
90
Update Update
Ismaëlo Ganiou from Lens committed a foul.
90
Update Update
The second half has concluded with the final score: Lorient 2, Lens 1.
90
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be 7 minutes of stoppage time.
90
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Lens after a deflection off Panos Katseris.
87
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Lens after Abdoulaye Faye allowed the ball to go out.
87
Corner Corner
Opportunity wasted! Ismaëlo Ganiou from Lens attempted a header from the center of the box, but it narrowly missed the target. The chance was set up by Andrija Bulatovic, who delivered a cross following a corner kick.
84
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Lens: Erawan Garnier comes on to replace Saud Abdulhamid.
84
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Lens: Erawan Garnier is coming on to replace Saud Abdulhamid.
82
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Lens: Rayan Fofana comes on to replace Odsonne Édouard.
81
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Lorient: Panos Katseris replaces Jean-Victor Makengo.
81
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Lorient: Sambou Soumano replaces Dermane Karim.
79
Update Update
Saud Abdulhamid commits a handball for Lens.
78
Update Update
Saud Abdulhamid from Lens commits a handball.
77
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Lens after a play that resulted in a deflection off Arsène Kouassi.
75
Update Update
Dermane Karim from Lorient has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
75
Update Update
Saud Abdulhamid from Lens committed a foul.
75
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Saud Abdulhamid of Lens has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
73
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Lens: Anthony Bermont comes on to replace Abdallah Sima.
73
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Lens: Andrija Bulatovic comes on to replace Adrien Thomasson.
72
Update Update
Abdallah Sima from Lens has been awarded a free kick in an offensive position.
72
Update Update
Bamo Meïté of Lorient committed a foul.
71
Update Update
Abdallah Sima from Lens has been awarded a free kick in an offensive position.
68
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Lens: Amadou Haidara comes on to replace Nidal Celik.
67
Update Update
Saud Abdulhamid from Lens committed a foul.
67
Update Update
Arsène Kouassi from Lorient has been awarded a free kick in the defensive zone.
65
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Lorient takes the lead 2-1 against Lens. Aiyegun Tosin scores with a right-footed shot from close range into the bottom right corner, assisted by Arsène Kouassi.
64
Update Update
The pause has ended. They are set to resume play.
64
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Lorient: Aiyegun Tosin replaces Bamba Dieng.
63
Update Update
Match interruption - VAR review for Lens underway.
62
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Odsonne Édouard from Lens takes a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it gets blocked. The assist came from Mamadou Sangaré.
59
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Lens after a play that resulted in a deflection off Arsène Kouassi.
59
Corner Corner
Opportunity wasted. Florian Thauvin from Lens attempted a header from the center of the penalty area, but it narrowly missed the target. The assist came from Adrien Thomasson, who delivered a cross following a corner kick.
58
Update Update
Opportunity wasted. Florian Thauvin from Lens attempted a header from the middle of the penalty area.
57
Update Update
Mamadou Sangaré from Lens committed a foul.
57
Update Update
Dermane Karim from Lorient has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
55
Update Update
Dermane Karim from Lorient has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
54
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Montassar Talbi of Lorient has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
54
Update Update
Odsonne Édouard from Lens has been awarded a free kick in an offensive position.
54
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity squandered. Mamadou Sangaré from Lens takes a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it goes just wide to the left. The assist was provided by Florian Thauvin.
52
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Lorient after a play that resulted in a foul by Nidal Celik.
50
Update Update
Arthur Avom from Lorient earned a free kick in the defensive area.
50
Update Update
Abdallah Sima from Lens committed a foul.
48
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! The score is now Lorient 1, Lens 1. Odsonne Édouard scores for Lens with a right-footed shot from the right side of the penalty area into the bottom left corner. The assist was provided by Mamadou Sangaré.
45
Update Update
The first half has concluded with Lorient leading Lens by a score of 1-0.
45
Update Update
Another offensive effort underway. Matthieu Udol from Lens attempts a header from the middle of the box, but Yvon Mvogo from Lorient makes a great save, stopping the ball at the top center of the goal. The assist came from Florian Thauvin, who delivered a cross.
45
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Lens after Yvon Mvogo allowed the ball to go out.
45
Update Update
Another offensive push. Odsonne Édouard from Lens attempts a header from the middle of the box, but Yvon Mvogo, the goalkeeper for Lorient, makes a save right in the center of the goal. The assist came from Adrien Thomasson, who delivered a cross.
45
Attempt Attempt
A shot is deflected. Mamadou Sangaré from Lens attempts a left-footed strike from outside the penalty area, but it's blocked.
45
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be 4 minutes of stoppage time.
45
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Lens after Abdoulaye Faye allowed the ball to go out.
45
Update Update
The second half is underway with the score at Lorient 1, Lens 0.
42
Update Update
The pause has ended. They are set to resume play.
41
Update Update
Match interruption due to an injury to Arthur Avom from Lorient.
39
Attempt Attempt
Another offensive push underway. Florian Thauvin from Lens takes a left-footed shot from the center of the penalty area, but it's stopped by the goalkeeper.
37
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity wasted! Mamadou Sangaré from Lens took a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area.
36
Update Update
Mamadou Sangaré from Lens has been awarded a free kick in an offensive position.
36
Update Update
Arthur Avom from Lorient committed a foul.
34
Update Update
Opportunity wasted! Florian Thauvin from Lens attempted a header from the middle of the penalty area but sent it wide to the left. The cross was delivered by Adrien Thomasson.
33
Update Update
Handball by Abdoulaye Faye - Lorient
31
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Lens after Montassar Talbi allowed the ball to go out.
31
Update Update
Odsonne Édouard from Lens committed a foul.
31
Update Update
Théo Le Bris from Lorient has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
26
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Abdoulaye Faye from Lorient has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
26
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Lens after Montassar Talbi allowed the ball to go out.
26
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Abdoulaye Faye from Lorient has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
25
Update Update
Mamadou Sangaré from Lens was awarded a free kick on the right flank.
25
Update Update
Abdoulaye Faye from Lorient committed a foul.
24
Attempt Attempt
A new offensive play unfolds. Florian Thauvin from Lens takes a left-footed shot from the left side of the penalty area, but it's successfully stopped by the goalkeeper.
23
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Nidal Celik from Lens has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
23
Update Update
Nidal Celik from Lens committed a foul.
23
Update Update
Match interruption - Lorient.
23
Update Update
The pause has ended. They are set to resume play.
22
Update Update
Nidal Celik from Lens committed a foul.
21
Update Update
Dermane Karim from Lorient has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
21
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Lens after a deflection off Théo Le Bris.
18
Corner Corner
Goal! Lorient takes the lead with a score of 1-0 against Lens. Bamba Dieng scores with a right-footed shot from close range into the bottom right corner following a corner kick.
18
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Malang Sarr from Lens was awarded a free kick on the left side of the field.
18
Update Update
Bamo Meïté committed a foul against a player from Lorient.
17
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Lorient after Ismaëlo Ganiou allowed the ball to go out.
16
Update Update
Offside call against Lorient. Arsène Kouassi has been flagged for being offside.
14
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity squandered! Bamba Dieng from Lorient attempted a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area but sent it wide to the left. The chance was set up by Jean-Victor Makengo during a quick counterattack.
10
Attempt Attempt
The attempt on goal has been thwarted. Montassar Talbi from Lorient fired a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it was blocked. The assist came from Bamo Meïté, who set him up with a header.
9
Update Update
Dermane Karim from Lorient has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
9
Update Update
Nidal Celik from Lens committed a foul.
9
Update Update
Abdoulaye Faye from Lorient earned a free kick on the left side of the field.
9
Update Update
Saud Abdulhamid from Lens committed a foul.
7
Update Update
Nidal Celik from Lens committed a foul.
7
Update Update
Dermane Karim from Lorient was awarded a free kick on the left side of the pitch.
4
Update Update
The wait is finally over. The teams are set to resume play.
3
Update Update
Match temporarily halted due to an injury to Bamba Dieng from Lorient.

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Lorient exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

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