Lokomotiva Zagreb vs Varaždin Prediction, Preview and Stats

Croatia flag 2025/2026 1. HNL, Croatia
Stadion Kranjčevićeva Sat, 7 Mar - 4:15 PM
1. HNL
Lokomotiva Zagreb Lokomotiva Zagreb
1 – 1
Varaždin Varaždin
Full Time Sat, 7 Mar 4:15 PM
Ibrahim Sabra - 30'
Goal
|
Goal
Matej Vuk - 73'

CONTEXT

Match is finished. Lokomotiva Zagreb 1–1 Varaždin. The match ended in a draw. Varaždin showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result diverged from the pre-match projection. Possession was 43%–57%.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Varaždin showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Antonio Melnjak
Antonio Melnjak
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 10.63
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.25
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
I. Mihalj
I. Mihalj
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 10.63
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.25
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
P. Krmar
P. Krmar
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 10.63
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.25
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
I. Martinčić
I. Martinčić
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 10.63
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.25
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Lokomotiva Zagreb N. Jelavić
N. Jelavić
VS
Varaždin N. Šafarić
N. Šafarić
1.11
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.42
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Rijeka Rank: L
Osijek Rank: W
Slaven Koprivnica Rank: L
Gorica Rank: W
Istra 1961 Rank: D
Vukovar Rank: W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Hajduk Split Rank: D
Dinamo Zagreb Rank: L
Rijeka Rank: L
Osijek Rank: W
Slaven Koprivnica Rank: W
Gorica Rank: W
12
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
12 - 10 - 6
6

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Lokomotiva Zagreb
44.3%
Draw
28.27%
Away Varaždin
27.43%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks’ model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
40
45.33
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Lokomotiva Zagreb
Varaždin
Power Score
40
45.33
League Position
7
5
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Lokomotiva Zagreb — Opponent-weighted form score
Varaždin — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Lokomotiva Zagreb Varaždin

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Lokomotiva Zagreb

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Varaždin

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Lokomotiva Zagreb ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Varaždin
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
49.19
19.74
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
19.74
49.19
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Lokomotiva Zagreb +2.98 Efficiency Index
vs
Varaždin -2.98 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Lokomotiva Zagreb
Varaždin
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Lokomotiva Zagreb ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Varaždin
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Lokomotiva Zagreb Varaždin
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Lokomotiva Zagreb Varaždin
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Lokomotiva Zagreb
Varaždin
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 18 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Lokomotiva Zagreb Lokomotiva Zagreb Home
18 matches
Varaždin Varaždin Away
Match Record
5
Wins
4
9
Draws
9
4
Losses
5
Goals
21
Goals Scored
17
17
Goals Conceded
21
+4
Goal Difference
-4
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-03-08T00:10:27+00:00

TEAM FORMATION

No team formation data available.

General Information

Date & Time
Mar 07, 2026, 04:15 PM
Competition
2025/2026 1. HNL, Croatia
Stadium
Stadion Kranjčevićeva
Capacity
8850
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Antonio Melnjak
Ivan Mihalj
Patrik Krmar
Ivana Martinčić

Statistics

Possession
Lokomotiva Zagreb
47%
Varaždin
53%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 1
3 Big Chances Created 0
12 Shots 5
63 Dangerous attacks 65
43 Possession 57
9 Corners 1
11 Free kicks 14
3 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

9 Successful Dribbles 6
53 Successful Dribbles Percentage 46
17 Dribble Attempts 13
1 Assists 1
25 Throwins 21
1 Hit Woodwork 0
6 Goal Kicks 11
4 Substitutions 5

Attacking

95 Attacks 116
2 Big Chances Missed 0

Possession

78 Successful Passes Percentage 80
31 Successful Long Passes 19
54 Long Passes 49
13 Key Passes 6
57 Successful Long Passes Percentage 39
348 Passes 464
271 Successful Passes 373

Defensive

13 Tackles 27
14 Interceptions 6
1 Saves 0

Build-up

4 Accurate Crosses 3
19 Total Crosses 16

Discipline

14 Fouls 11
0 Offsides 5

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Marko Vesovic
Argument / 5th Yellowcard
90+6'
90+6'
Event
Aleksa Latkovic
Goal disallowed
90+2'
Event
Aleksa Latkovic
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
Event
Marko Rog → Ibrahim Sabra
9th Substitution
89'
Event
Mirko Susak → Denis Kolinger
8th Substitution
83'
Event
Denis Kolinger
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
81'
80'
Event
Sven Lesjak → Frane Maglica
7th Substitution
Event
Ivan Katic → Leon Belcar
5th Substitution
75'
Event
Matija Subotic → Aleksandar Trajkovski
6th Substitution
75'
73'
Event
Matej Vuk
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
Event
Blaz Boskovic
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
72'
63'
Event
Matej Vuk → Antonio Borsic
4th Substitution
63'
Event
Ivan Canjuga → Luka Mamic
2nd Substitution
63'
Event
Gregor Sikosek → Luka Skaricic
3rd Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Ibrahim Sabra
Header / 1st Goal
30'
30'
Event
Stipe Juric → Ivan Mamut
1st Substitution
28'
Event
Ivan Mamut
Foul / 1st Yellowcard

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Varaždin exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

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