Leeds United vs Brentford Prediction, Preview and Stats

England flag 2025/2026 Premier League, England
Elland Road Sat, 21 Mar - 8:00 PM
Premier League
Leeds United LEE
0 – 0
Brentford BRE
Full Time Sat, 21 Mar 8:00 PM
Round 31 Regular Season

CONTEXT

The match between Leeds United and Brentford has finished in a 0-0 draw. Ahead of the game, Leeds United were viewed as the stronger team, carrying a 40.8% implied probability of securing a home win. The pre-match market gave a 27.7% chance for a draw and a 31.6% chance for a Brentford victory. Ultimately, this scoreless stalemate represented a significant deviation for Leeds United, meaning the final outcome did not align with the pre-match market expectations. On the pitch, Leeds United controlled the general tempo, holding 57% of the possession compared to Brentford's 43%. Despite their advantage on the ball, clear-cut chances were extremely limited for both sides. The hosts generated a modest 0.73 expected goals (xG), while the visiting side managed just 0.48 xG. Both teams' overall attacking output proved to be in line with typical efficiency shifts, failing to break a deadlock that remained untouched since half-time. While the result frustrated the market forecasters, the draw was entirely consistent with the underlying xG data. Furthermore, there were no red cards or major disciplinary events to disrupt the flow of the match, leaving both teams to settle for a point in a quiet, low-event fixture.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Leeds United showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was consistent with expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Aligned with xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
No referee statistics available.
Leeds United D. Farke
D. Farke
VS
Brentford K. Andrews
K. Andrews
1.04
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.71
1 i
Last 6 Opponents
Manchester City Rank: 97 L
Aston Villa Rank: 92 D
Chelsea Rank: 91 D
Nottingham Forest Rank: 85 W
Arsenal Rank: 100 L
Everton Rank: 89 D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Arsenal Rank: 100 D
Newcastle United Rank: 90 W
Aston Villa Rank: 92 W
Nottingham Forest Rank: 85 L
Chelsea Rank: 91 L
Sunderland Rank: 82 W
4
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
4 - 7 - 6
6

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Leeds United
40.75%
Draw
27.67%
Away Brentford
31.58%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
86.38
72.82
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Leeds United
Brentford
Power Score
86.38
72.82
League Position
15
7
Global Rank
28
19

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Leeds United — Opponent-weighted form score
Brentford — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Leeds United Brentford

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Leeds United

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Brentford

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Leeds United ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Brentford
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
30.96
18.37
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
18.37
30.96
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Leeds United +1.48 Efficiency Index
vs
Brentford -1.48 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Leeds United
Brentford
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Leeds United
vs
Brentford
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Leeds United Brentford
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
0%
0%
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
+0.00 vs +0.00
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Leeds United Brentford
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
Leeds United
Brentford
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 17 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Leeds United LEE Home
17 matches
Brentford BRE Away
Match Record
4
Wins
6
7
Draws
7
6
Losses
4
Goals
15
Goals Scored
23
23
Goals Conceded
15
-8
Goal Difference
+8
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-03-27T12:23:35+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-4-1-2
Match Formation 5-3-2
Pitch
K. Darlow
Wales
26 K. Darlow
J. Rodon
Wales
6 J. Rodon
J. Bijol
Slovenia
15 J. Bijol
P. Struijk
Substitution
Netherlands
5 P. Struijk
J. Bogle
England
2 J. Bogle
E. Ampadu
Wales
4 (C) E. Ampadu
A. Stach
Germany
18 A. Stach
J. Justin
England
24 J. Justin
B. Aaronson
Substitution
United States
11 B. Aaronson
D. Calvert-Lewin
England
9 D. Calvert-Lewin
L. Nmecha
Substitution
Germany
14 L. Nmecha
C. Kelleher
Republic of Ireland
1 C. Kelleher
K. Lewis-Potter
England
23 K. Lewis-Potter
N. Collins
Republic of Ireland
22 (C) N. Collins
E. Pinnock
Jamaica
5 E. Pinnock
S. van den Berg
Netherlands
4 S. van den Berg
M. Kayode
Italy
33 M. Kayode
M. Jensen
Denmark
8 M. Jensen
J. Henderson
England
6 J. Henderson
Y. Yarmoliuk
Ukraine
18 Y. Yarmoliuk
Thiago
Brazil
9 Thiago
K. Schade
Substitution
Germany
7 K. Schade

General Information

Date & Time
Mar 21, 2026, 08:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Premier League, England · Round 31 · Regular Season
Stadium
Elland Road
Capacity
40242
Attendance
36386
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Jarred Gillett
Simon Long
Nick Greenhalgh
Anthony Backhouse

Statistics

Possession
LEE
56%
BRE
44%

Top Statistics

7 Shots 1
73 Dangerous attacks 38
57 Possession 43
6 Corners 2
12 Free kicks 8
2 Yellow Cards 0

Match Overview

23 Throwins 26
12 Dribble Attempts 15
9 Goal Kicks 12
42 Successful Dribbles Percentage 47
5 Successful Dribbles 7
1 Injuries 3
75 Ball Safe 76
39 Successful Headers 40
3 Substitutions 1
5 Goal Attempts 4

Attacking

121 Attacks 104

Possession

369 Successful Passes 234
26 Successful Long Passes 16
50 Long Passes 83
11 Key Passes 4
461 Passes 358
52 Successful Long Passes Percentage 19
80 Successful Passes Percentage 65

Defensive

15 Tackles 11
8 Interceptions 7
2 Saves 4

Build-up

5 Accurate Crosses 5
32 Total Crosses 13

Discipline

1 Offsides 3
6 Fouls 9

Lineup

Referee : Jarred Gillett

Starting XI ▼

26
Karl Darlow
Karl Darlow Goalkeeper
7.2
5
Pascal Struijk
Pascal Struijk Defender
7.38
7
Daniel James
Daniel James
Midfielder83'
6.69
6
Joe Rodon
Joe Rodon Defender
6.99
15
Jaka Bijol
Jaka Bijol Defender
7.77
2
Jayden Bogle
Jayden Bogle Midfielder
6.83
4
Ethan Ampadu
Ethan Ampadu (C) Midfielder
7.47
18
Anton Stach
Anton Stach Midfielder
7.15
24
James Justin
James Justin Midfielder
7.17
9
Dominic Calvert-Lewin
Dominic Calvert-Lewin Attacker
6.65
11
Brenden Aaronson
Brenden Aaronson Attacker
6.46
22
Ao Tanaka
Ao Tanaka
Midfielder68'
6.59
14
Lukas Nmecha
Lukas Nmecha Attacker
6.89
19
Noah Okafor
Noah Okafor
Attacker69'
6.54
Referee : Jarred Gillett

Starting XI ▼

1
Caoimhín Kelleher
Caoimhín Kelleher Goalkeeper
7.25
4
Sepp van den Berg
Sepp van den Berg Defender
6.96
5
Ethan Pinnock
Ethan Pinnock Defender
7.59
22
Nathan Collins
Nathan Collins (C) Defender
7.04
23
Keane Lewis-Potter
Keane Lewis-Potter Defender
6.77
33
Michael Kayode
Michael Kayode Defender
6.18
6
Jordan Henderson
Jordan Henderson Midfielder
6.45
8
Mathias Jensen
Mathias Jensen Midfielder
6.95
18
Yegor Yarmolyuk
Yegor Yarmolyuk Midfielder
6.65
7
Kevin Schade
Kevin Schade Attacker
6.62
19
Dango Ouattara
Dango Ouattara
Attacker77'
6.52
9
Igor Thiago
Igor Thiago Attacker
7.5

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Daniel James → Pascal Struijk
4th Substitution
83'
77'
Event
Dango Ouattara → Kevin Schade
3rd Substitution
Event
Noah Okafor → Lukas Nmecha
2nd Substitution
69'
Event
Ao Tanaka → Brenden Aaronson
1st Substitution
68'
1ST-HALF
Event
Jayden Bogle
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
42'
Event
Pascal Struijk
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
38'

Match Commentary

90
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be 5 minutes of stoppage time.
90
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is denied. Keane Lewis-Potter from Brentford takes a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it's intercepted.
90
Update Update
The second half has concluded with the score remaining Leeds United 0, Brentford 0.
90
Update Update
The pause has ended. They are set to resume play.
90
Update Update
Dango Ouattara from Brentford has been awarded a free kick in an offensive position.
90
Update Update
Ethan Ampadu from Leeds United committed a foul.
90
Update Update
Match interruption due to an injury to Jaka Bijol from Leeds United.
90
Update Update
Keane Lewis-Potter from Brentford committed a foul.
90
Attempt Attempt
The attempt on goal was thwarted. Anton Stach from Leeds United fired a right-footed shot from the middle of the penalty area, but it was blocked. The assist came from Jaka Bijol.
90
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Leeds United after Ethan Pinnock allowed the ball to go out.
90
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Leeds United after a deflection off Igor Thiago.
90
Update Update
Daniel James from Leeds United earned a free kick in an offensive position.
89
Corner Corner
A fresh offensive move unfolds as Noah Okafor from Leeds United takes a right-footed shot from a challenging angle and a considerable distance on the left side. The attempt is expertly stopped in the left corner by Caoimhín Kelleher of Brentford, with an assist credited to James Justin.
84
Update Update
Ethan Ampadu from Leeds United commits a handball.
83
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Leeds United: Daniel James comes on to replace Pascal Struijk.
82
Update Update
Pascal Struijk from Leeds United has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
82
Update Update
Igor Thiago from Brentford committed a foul.
77
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Brentford: Dango Ouattara comes on to replace Kevin Schade.
75
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to Leeds United after Igor Thiago allowed the ball to go out of play.
75
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Leeds United after Ethan Pinnock allowed the ball to go out.
75
Attempt Attempt
The attempt on goal is denied. Pascal Struijk of Leeds United heads the ball from the middle of the penalty area, but his shot is intercepted. The cross was delivered by Anton Stach.
75
Attempt Attempt
A shot is deflected. Ao Tanaka from Leeds United attempts a right-footed strike from outside the penalty area, but it's blocked. The assist came from James Justin.
74
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Leeds United after a defensive play by Keane Lewis-Potter.
71
Update Update
The pause has ended. They are set to resume play.
69
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Leeds United: Noah Okafor is coming on to replace Lukas Nmecha.
69
Update Update
Match halted due to an injury to Caoimhín Kelleher from Brentford.
68
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Leeds United: Ao Tanaka is coming on to replace Brenden Aaronson.
63
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Brentford after Dominic Calvert-Lewin allowed the ball to go out.
63
Update Update
Jaka Bijol of Leeds United has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
58
Update Update
Offside call against Brentford. Igor Thiago has been caught offside.
56
Update Update
Brenden Aaronson from Leeds United earned a free kick in an offensive position.
56
Update Update
Kevin Schade from Brentford committed a foul.
55
Attempt Attempt
A fresh offensive move unfolds as Ethan Ampadu from Leeds United takes a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area. However, his effort is expertly denied by Caoimhín Kelleher of Brentford, who makes a save in the top center of the goal. The assist for this play comes from Lukas Nmecha.
55
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. James Justin from Leeds United takes a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it gets blocked.
52
Update Update
Yehor Yarmoliuk from Brentford committed a foul.
52
Update Update
Yehor Yarmoliuk from Brentford committed a foul.
51
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Brentford after Anton Stach allowed the ball to go out.
46
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity! Mathias Jensen from Brentford attempted a left-footed shot from a challenging angle on the left side, but it went just wide to the left. The assist came from Igor Thiago, who set him up with a header.
46
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is denied. Anton Stach from Leeds United takes a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it's blocked. The assist came from James Justin.
45
Update Update
The first half has concluded with the score tied at Leeds United 0, Brentford 0.
45
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity wasted! Kevin Schade from Brentford took a right-footed shot from the center of the box but failed to find the target. The assist came from Igor Thiago, who delivered a cross.
45
Update Update
The fourth official has signaled that there will be 4 minutes of stoppage time.
45
Update Update
The second half is underway with the score still tied at Leeds United 0, Brentford 0.
42
Update Update
Jayden Bogle from Leeds United committed a foul.
42
Update Update
Keane Lewis-Potter from Brentford was awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
42
Update Update
Offside call against Leeds United. James Justin has been caught in an offside position.
42
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Jayden Bogle of Leeds United has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
41
Update Update
Lukas Nmecha from Leeds United earned a free kick on the left side of the pitch.
41
Update Update
Sepp van den Berg committed a foul against a Brentford player.
41
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Jayden Bogle from Leeds United fired a right-footed shot from the right side of the penalty area, but it was blocked. The setup came from Anton Stach, who delivered a cross.
39
Update Update
Another offensive effort underway. Ethan Pinnock from Brentford heads the ball from the middle of the penalty area, but it's successfully stopped by the goalkeeper.
38
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Pascal Struijk from Leeds United has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
38
Update Update
Kevin Schade from Brentford earned a free kick in the defensive area.
38
Update Update
Pascal Struijk from Leeds United committed a foul.
37
Update Update
The pause has ended. They are set to resume play.
36
Update Update
Match halted due to an injury to Jordan Henderson from Brentford.
35
Attempt Attempt
Another offensive effort underway. Lukas Nmecha from Leeds United takes a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it's successfully stopped.
29
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Jayden Bogle from Leeds United takes a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it's blocked. The assist came from Brenden Aaronson.
25
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity. James Justin from Leeds United attempted a shot with his right foot from outside the penalty area.
24
Update Update
Ethan Ampadu from Leeds United has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
24
Update Update
Igor Thiago from Brentford committed a foul.
23
Update Update
Michael Kayode from Brentford earned a free kick in the defensive area.
23
Update Update
Michael Kayode from Brentford has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
21
Update Update
Foul committed by James Justin - Leeds United.
21
Update Update
Jaka Bijol from Leeds United has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
20
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity wasted! Igor Thiago from Brentford took a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it went wide to the left. The assist came from Mathias Jensen.
20
Update Update
Kevin Schade from Brentford committed a foul.
19
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. James Justin from Leeds United takes a left-footed shot from the left side of the penalty area, but it gets blocked.
18
Update Update
Another offensive effort. Nathan Collins from Brentford heads the ball from the middle of the box, but Karl Darlow from Leeds United makes a save in the top center of the goal. The assist came from Michael Kayode.
12
Update Update
The pause has ended. They are set to resume play.
11
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to Leeds United after Michael Kayode allowed the ball to go out.
11
Update Update
The game is currently paused due to an injury to Mathias Jensen from Brentford.
9
Update Update
Igor Thiago from Brentford committed a foul.
9
Update Update
Anton Stach committed a foul against Leeds United.
9
Update Update
Mathias Jensen from Brentford earned a free kick in the defensive area.
9
Update Update
Pascal Struijk from Leeds United has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
7
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Brentford after Pascal Struijk allowed the ball to go out.
4
Update Update
Offside call against Brentford. Nathan Collins has been caught offside.
3
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Brentford after Pascal Struijk's defensive play.
1
Update Update
Offside call against Brentford. Igor Thiago has been caught offside.

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Leeds United exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

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