Lechia Gdańsk vs Korona Kielce Prediction, Preview and Stats

Poland flag 2025/2026 Ekstraklasa, Poland
Stadion Energa Gdańsk Mon, 6 Apr - 6:15 PM
Ekstraklasa
Lechia Gdańsk LGD
4 Winner 2
Korona Kielce Korona Kielce
Full Time Mon, 6 Apr 6:15 PM
Round 27 Regular Season
Aleksandar Cirkovic - 19'
Tomas Bobcek - 29' (P)
Rifet Kapic - 59'
Dawid Kurminowski - 90+3'
Goal
|
Goal
Dawid Blanik - 78' (P)
Pau Resta - 82'
|
Red Card Konstantinos Sotiriou 27'

CONTEXT

The match has concluded with Lechia Gdańsk securing a high-scoring 4-2 victory over Korona Kielce. Pre-match market expectations favored the home side with a 47.7% chance of winning, compared to Korona Kielce's 27% and a 25.3% probability of a draw. The final outcome aligned with the market, though Lechia Gdańsk produced a significant deviation in their favor after establishing an early 2-0 lead by halftime. Possession was tightly contested throughout the fixture, with Lechia Gdańsk holding a slight edge at 51% to the visitors' 49%. Because expected goals (xG) data was unavailable for this clash, it cannot be determined if the final scoreline was consistent with the underlying shot quality. Nevertheless, the overall efficiency shift was completely in line with expectations. A crucial factor in the match was Korona Kielce being reduced to ten men after receiving a red card. This disciplinary event caused a noticeable second-half distortion. Playing against a disadvantaged opponent allowed the inherently stronger Lechia Gdańsk squad to comfortably maintain their advantage and safely close out the game.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Lechia Gdańsk showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: Red card(s) affected the match (Classify).
  • Red card distortion: Classify as red card distortion.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
T. Kwiatkowski
T. Kwiatkowski
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 18.15
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.68
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.15
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.17
M. Lisowski
M. Lisowski
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 18.15
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.68
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.15
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.17
P. Baranowska
P. Baranowska
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 18.15
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.68
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.15
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.17
Lechia Gdańsk J. Carver
J. Carver
VS
Korona Kielce J. Zielinski
J. Zielinski
1.8
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.2
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Pogoń Szczecin Rank: 62 W
Katowice Rank: 63 L
Jagiellonia Białystok Rank: 64 W
Arka Gdynia Rank: 55 D
Zagłębie Lubin Rank: 63 L
Motor Lublin Rank: 60 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Arka Gdynia Rank: 56 W
Pogoń Szczecin Rank: 61 L
Nieciecza Rank: 52 W
Motor Lublin Rank: 60 L
Lech Poznań Rank: 69 L
Radomiak Radom Rank: 59 W
8
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
8 - 7 - 13
13

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Lechia Gdańsk
47.73%
Draw
25.3%
Away Korona Kielce
26.96%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
61.9
60.36
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Lechia Gdańsk
Korona Kielce
Power Score
61.9
60.36
League Position
9
10
Global Rank
406
461

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Lechia Gdańsk — Opponent-weighted form score
Korona Kielce — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Lechia Gdańsk Korona Kielce

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Lechia Gdańsk

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Korona Kielce

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Lechia Gdańsk ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Korona Kielce
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
39.61
43.88
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
43.88
39.61
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Lechia Gdańsk -0.38 Efficiency Index
vs
Korona Kielce +0.38 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Lechia Gdańsk
Korona Kielce
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Lechia Gdańsk ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Korona Kielce
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Lechia Gdańsk Korona Kielce
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
1.00 1.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Lechia Gdańsk Korona Kielce
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
1.00 1.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Lechia Gdańsk
Korona Kielce
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Lechia Gdańsk
vs
Korona Kielce
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Lechia Gdańsk Korona Kielce
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Lechia Gdańsk 0.27
Korona Kielce 0.26
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Lechia Gdańsk Korona Kielce
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Lechia Gdańsk 0.03
Korona Kielce 0.06
Lechia Gdańsk
Korona Kielce
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 28 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Lechia Gdańsk LGD Home
28 matches
Korona Kielce Korona Kielce Away
Match Record
8
Wins
13
7
Draws
7
13
Losses
8
Goals
27
Goals Scored
38
38
Goals Conceded
27
-11
Goal Difference
+11
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-07T00:05:29+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 3-4-3
Pitch
A. Paulsen
New Zealand
18 A. Paulsen
T. Wójtowicz
Substitution
Poland
33 T. Wójtowicz
M. Dyachuk
Ukraine
15 M. Dyachuk
M. Rodin
Croatia
80 M. Rodin
M. Vojtko
Slovakia
27 M. Vojtko
R. Kapič
Substitution
Bosnia and Herzegovina
10 R. Kapič
I. Zhelizko
Ukraine
5 I. Zhelizko
C. Mena Márquez
Substitution
Colombia
11 C. Mena Márquez
K. Sezonienko
Substitution
Poland
79 K. Sezonienko
A. Ćirković
Serbia
8 A. Ćirković
T. Bobček
Substitution
Slovakia
89 T. Bobček
X. Dziekonski
Poland
1 X. Dziekonski
P. Resta Tell
Spain
5 P. Resta Tell
C. Soteriou
Cyprus
44 C. Soteriou
S. Rubežić
Serbia
23 S. Rubežić
M. Pieczek
Poland
6 M. Pieczek
T. Svetlin
Slovenia
88 T. Svetlin
M. Remacle
Substitution
Belgium
8 M. Remacle
W. Długosz
Substitution
Poland
71 W. Długosz
D. Błanik
Poland
7 D. Błanik
M. Stępiński
Substitution
Poland
14 M. Stępiński
S. Davidović
Substitution
Slovenia
9 S. Davidović

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 06, 2026, 06:15 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Ekstraklasa, Poland · Round 27 · Regular Season
Stadium
Stadion Energa Gdańsk
Capacity
41984
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Tomasz Kwiatkowski
Marcin Lisowski
Paulina Baranowska

Statistics

Possession
LGD
52%
Korona Kielce
48%

Top Statistics

4 Goals 2
6 Big Chances Created 3
9 Shots 4
64 Dangerous attacks 70
51 Possession 49
6 Corners 5
5 Free kicks 13
4 Yellow Cards 0
0 Red Cards 1

Match Overview

5 Substitutions 5
1 Penalties 1
81 Ball Safe 95
6 Goal Kicks 6
20 Throwins 25
75 Successful Dribbles Percentage 40
9 Successful Dribbles 6
17 Goal Attempts 10
9 Dribble Attempts 6
3 Assists 1
0 Injuries 1

Attacking

107 Attacks 103

Possession

80 Successful Passes Percentage 78
368 Passes 343
294 Successful Passes 266
19 Long Passes 14

Defensive

42 Duels Won 44
4 Interceptions 3
3 Saves 11
21 Tackles 8

Discipline

14 Fouls 6
3 Offsides 0

Lineup

Referee : Tomasz Kwiatkowski

Starting XI ▼

18
Alex Paulsen
Alex Paulsen Goalkeeper
15
Maksym Dyachuk
Maksym Dyachuk Defender
27
Matus Vojtko
Matus Vojtko Defender
33
Tomasz Wojtowicz
Tomasz Wojtowicz Defender
2
Bartlomiej Kludka
Bartlomiej Kludka
Defender46'
80
Matej Rodin
Matej Rodin Defender
5
Ivan Zhelizko
Ivan Zhelizko Midfielder
8
Aleksandar Cirkovic
Aleksandar Cirkovic Midfielder
10
Rifet Kapic
Rifet Kapic Midfielder
4
Bujar Pllana
Bujar Pllana
Defender90+4'
11
Camilo Mena
Camilo Mena Midfielder
99
Tomasz Neugebauer
Tomasz Neugebauer
Midfielder46'
79
Kacper Sezonienko
Kacper Sezonienko Midfielder
7
Bogdan Viunnyk
Bogdan Viunnyk
Attacker75'
89
Tomas Bobcek
Tomas Bobcek Attacker
90
Dawid Kurminowski
Dawid Kurminowski
Attacker62'
Referee : Tomasz Kwiatkowski

Starting XI ▼

1
Xavier Dziekonski
Xavier Dziekonski Goalkeeper
5
Pau Resta
Pau Resta Defender
23
Slobodan Rubezic
Slobodan Rubezic Defender
44
Konstantinos Sotiriou
Konstantinos Sotiriou Defender
6
Marcel Pieczek
Marcel Pieczek Midfielder
8
Martin Remacle
Martin Remacle Midfielder
86
Simon Gustafson
Simon Gustafson
Midfielder67'
71
Wiktor Dlugosz
Wiktor Dlugosz Midfielder
37
Hubert Zwozny
Hubert Zwozny
Defender67'
88
Tamar Svetlin
Tamar Svetlin Midfielder
7
Dawid Blanik
Dawid Blanik Attacker
9
Stjepan Davidovic
Stjepan Davidovic Attacker
3
Konrad Matuszewski
Konrad Matuszewski
Defender33'
14
Mariusz Stepinski
Mariusz Stepinski Attacker
77
Marcin Cebula
Marcin Cebula
Midfielder67'

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Bujar Pllana
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
90+6'
Event
Bujar Pllana → Rifet Kapic
9th Substitution
90+4'
Event
Dawid Kurminowski
Right foot shot / 4th Goal
90+3'
85'
Event
Pau Resta
Goal awarded
82'
Event
Pau Resta
Left foot shot / 3rd Goal
78'
Event
Dawid Blanik
Right foot shot / 2nd Penalty
Event
Dawid Kurminowski
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
77'
76'
Event
Pau Resta
Penalty awarded
Event
Bogdan Viunnyk → Kacper Sezonienko
8th Substitution
75'
67'
Event
Simon Gustafson → Martin Remacle
6th Substitution
67'
Event
Hubert Zwozny → Wiktor Dlugosz
7th Substitution
67'
Event
Marcin Cebula → Mariusz Stepinski
5th Substitution
Event
Dawid Kurminowski → Tomas Bobcek
4th Substitution
62'
Event
Rifet Kapic
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
59'
Event
Bartlomiej Kludka → Tomasz Wojtowicz
2nd Substitution
46'
Event
Tomasz Neugebauer → Camilo Mena
3rd Substitution
46'
1ST-HALF
Event
Camilo Mena
Simulation / 2nd Yellowcard
45'
33'
Event
Konrad Matuszewski → Stjepan Davidovic
1st Substitution
Event
Tomas Bobcek
Right foot shot / 1st Penalty
29'
27'
Event
Konstantinos Sotiriou
Professional foul last man / 1st Redcard
Event
Tomas Bobcek
Penalty awarded
26'
Event
Aleksandar Cirkovic
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
19'
Event
Aleksandar Cirkovic
Goal disallowed
9'
Event
Tomasz Wojtowicz
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
5'

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Lechia Gdańsk exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Structural distortion: The match was materially influenced by red card(s), altering baseline dynamics. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

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