Lechia Gdańsk vs Jagiellonia Białystok Prediction, Preview and Stats

Poland flag 2025/2026 Ekstraklasa, Poland
Stadion Energa Gdańsk Fri, 6 Mar - 7:30 PM
Ekstraklasa
Lechia Gdańsk LGD
3 Winner 0
Jagiellonia Białystok Jagiellonia Białystok
Full Time Fri, 6 Mar 7:30 PM
Rifet Kapic - 43'
Aleksandar Cirkovic - 81', 90+4'
Goal
|

CONTEXT

The match has finished with Lechia Gdańsk securing a commanding 3-0 victory over Jagiellonia Białystok. The hosts established an early advantage, leading 1-0 at halftime before adding two more goals in the second half to seal the win. Pre-match probabilities slightly favored the home side at 40.1%, compared to Jagiellonia Białystok's 34.2% and a 25.7% chance of a draw. Even though Jagiellonia Białystok was considered the stronger overall team on paper, Lechia Gdańsk's dominant triumph represented a significant deviation level of 59.9%. Despite this significant overperformance by the hosts, the final result was ultimately aligned with the pre-match betting market, which had backed Lechia Gdańsk. On the pitch, Jagiellonia Białystok controlled the tempo with 64% possession, leaving Lechia Gdańsk with just 36% of the ball. Expected goals (xG) data was unavailable for this fixture, meaning it cannot be determined if the final score was consistent with underlying chance creation. Nevertheless, the efficiency shift for the match was perfectly in line with the outcome, as Lechia Gdańsk maximized their limited possession to find the back of the net three times. The match was played cleanly, with zero red cards issued to either side to impact the tactical balance.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Lechia Gdańsk showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
P. Lasyk
P. Lasyk
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 3.73
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 0.6
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
S. Kowalewski
S. Kowalewski
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 3.73
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 0.6
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
D. Rokosz
D. Rokosz
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 3.73
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 0.6
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
F. Kaliszewski
F. Kaliszewski
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 3.73
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 0.6
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Lechia Gdańsk J. Carver
J. Carver
VS
Jagiellonia Białystok A. Siemieniec
A. Siemieniec
1.75
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.53
1.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Arka Gdynia Rank: D
Zagłębie Lubin Rank: L
Motor Lublin Rank: W
Cracovia Kraków Rank: D
Lech Poznań Rank: W
Górnik Zabrze Rank: W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Legia Warszawa Rank: D
Radomiak Radom Rank: D
Cracovia Kraków Rank: D
Motor Lublin Rank: W
Widzew Lodz Rank: W
Motor Lublin Rank: D
16
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
16 - 7 - 14
14

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Lechia Gdańsk
40.07%
Draw
25.7%
Away Jagiellonia Białystok
34.23%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks’ model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
43.06
55.07
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Lechia Gdańsk
Jagiellonia Białystok
Power Score
43.06
55.07
League Position
9
1
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Lechia Gdańsk — Opponent-weighted form score
Jagiellonia Białystok — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Lechia Gdańsk Jagiellonia Białystok

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Lechia Gdańsk

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Jagiellonia Białystok

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Lechia Gdańsk ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Jagiellonia Białystok
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
33.47
24.38
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
24.38
33.47
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Lechia Gdańsk +0.86 Efficiency Index
vs
Jagiellonia Białystok -0.86 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Lechia Gdańsk
Jagiellonia Białystok
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Lechia Gdańsk ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Jagiellonia Białystok
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Lechia Gdańsk Jagiellonia Białystok
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Lechia Gdańsk Jagiellonia Białystok
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Lechia Gdańsk
Jagiellonia Białystok
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 9 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Lechia Gdańsk LGD Home
9 matches
Jagiellonia Białystok Jagiellonia Białystok Away
Match Record
1
Wins
6
2
Draws
2
6
Losses
1
Goals
8
Goals Scored
15
15
Goals Conceded
8
-7
Goal Difference
+7
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-03-07T11:27:59+00:00

TEAM FORMATION

No team formation data available.

General Information

Date & Time
Mar 06, 2026, 07:30 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Ekstraklasa, Poland
Stadium
Stadion Energa Gdańsk
Capacity
41984
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Piotr Lasyk
S. Kowalewski
Damian Rokosz
Filip Kaliszewski

Statistics

Possession
LGD
41%
Jagiellonia Białystok
59%

Top Statistics

3 Goals 0
3 Big Chances Created 0
2 Shots 6
41 Dangerous attacks 72
36 Possession 64
2 Corners 9
8 Free kicks 10
1 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

70 Successful Dribbles Percentage 33
10 Dribble Attempts 15
17 Throwins 28
9 Goal Kicks 6
7 Successful Dribbles 5
3 Assists 0
3 Substitutions 4
1 Injuries 0
8 Goal Attempts 6
66 Ball Safe 74

Attacking

84 Attacks 100

Possession

7 Key Passes 7
300 Passes 516
57 Long Passes 60
217 Successful Passes 417
72 Successful Passes Percentage 81
32 Successful Long Passes Percentage 47
18 Successful Long Passes 28

Defensive

20 Tackles 7
8 Interceptions 8
1 Saves 4

Build-up

7 Total Crosses 26
1 Accurate Crosses 10

Discipline

4 Offsides 2
11 Fouls 6

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Aleksandar Cirkovic
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
90+4'
Event
Bartlomiej Kludka → Tomasz Wojtowicz
7th Substitution
90+4'
90+2'
Event
Youssuf Sylla
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
Event
Bogdan Viunnyk → Kacper Sezonienko
6th Substitution
89'
88'
Event
Youssuf Sylla → Bartosz Mazurek
5th Substitution
Event
Aleksandar Cirkovic
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
81'
Event
Tomasz Neugebauer → Camilo Mena
4th Substitution
74'
73'
Event
Samed Bazdar → Afimico Pululu
3rd Substitution
70'
Event
Adrian Siemieniec
Argument / 4th Yellowcard
Event
Matus Vojtko
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
64'
62'
Event
Guilherme Montóia → Bartlomiej Wdowik
1st Substitution
62'
Event
Matías Nahuel → Norbert Wojtuszek
2nd Substitution
49'
Event
Apostolos Konstantopoulos
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
1ST-HALF
Event
Rifet Kapic
Left foot shot / 1st Goal
43'

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Lechia Gdańsk exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

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